纳斯达克100指数 (NASDAQ100) 加自选

下周，随着市场在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上评估美联储鸽派信号的可持续性，全球利率前景仍将是关注的焦点。除了对第二季度GDP的最新估计外，美国的焦点将是个人收入、支出和个人消费支出价格指数。其他关键数据包括关税影响下的耐用品订单、一批房价和销售数据、消费者信心调查和美联储活动指数。此外，英伟达的收益为全球人工智能市场情绪提供了新的见解，此前芯片行业在最近几个交易日的表现落后于其他股票。加拿大和印度也将公布GDP数据。中国将在8月的第一批数据中公布其官方采购经理人指数，日本将公布其月末数据。在欧洲，欧洲央行的会议账目可能会暗示政策制定者是否认为有进一步削减的空间，而欧元区主要经济体的通胀率也将受到关注。

The outlook on global rates will remain the focus next week as markets gauge the sustainability of the Federal Reserve's dovish signals in its Jackson Hole Symposium. The spotlight in the US will be on personal income, spending, and PCE price indexes, in addition to updated estimates on the Q2 GDP. Other key data includes durable goods orders for the impact of tariffs, a batch of figures on housing prices and sales, consumer confidence surveys, and Fed activity indexes. Also, Nvidia earnings offer fresh insights on global artificial intelligence sentiment after the chip sector underperformed other equities in recent sessions. GDP data will also be due from Canada and India. China will post its official PMI in its first batch of data from August, and Japan will release its month-end data dump. In Europe, the ECB meeting accounts may give hints on whether policymakers see further cutting room, while inflation rates in key Eurozone economies will also be featured.

美元预测：随着9月降息几率飙升，DXY跌至97.50。随着鲍威尔暗示9月降息，DXY下跌；劳动力市场的担忧和美国国债收益率的下降给美元带来了全面压力。

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Slides Toward 97.50 as September Rate Cut Odds Soar.DXY sinks as Powell hints at September rate cut; labor market concerns and falling Treasury yields pressure the US dollar across the board.

美元下跌，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔演讲中暗示9月可能降息。杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示可能降息后，美元走软。欧元和其他货币兑美元走强。

US dollar drops as Powell signals possible September rate cut in Jackson Hole speech.The dollar weakened following Jerome Powell's suggestion of a potential rate cut. The euro and other currencies strengthened against the dollar.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示美联储最早可能在9月开始降息后，股市周五反弹。标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克100指数均飙升1.5%以上，道琼斯指数飙升950点，涨幅2.1%，创历史新高。科技股领涨，特斯拉上涨4.4%，Meta、Alphabet和亚马逊各上涨1.5%以上，而Nvidia上涨1.1%。鲍威尔在美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会上发表讲话时指出，“基线前景和不断变化的风险平衡可能需要调整我们的政策立场”，这一言论提高了人们对下个月降息25个基点的预期。降息赌注从本周早些时候的约75%上升到近90%。此次反弹使市场从早些时候与大型科技股压力相关的疲软中复苏，使道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数保持每周上涨的步伐，并减少了纳斯达克指数的跌幅。

Stocks rallied on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank could begin cutting interest rates as early as September. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 surged over 1.5% each, the Dow Jones soared 950 points, or 2.1%, to a record high. Tech leaders drove much of the strength, with Tesla jumping 4.4% and Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon each gaining over 1.5%, while Nvidia rose 1.1%. Speaking at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, Powell noted that the “baseline outlook and shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” remarks that heightened expectations for a 25 basis-point cut next month. Rate-cut bets rose to nearly 90% from about 75% earlier in the week. The rally allowed markets to recover from earlier weakness tied to pressure in megacap tech, leaving the Dow and S&P 500 on pace for weekly gains and trimming the Nasdaq’s losses.