阿根廷MERVAL指数 (Merval) 加自选

2025年5月，阿根廷的经济活动同比增长5%，低于4月份向上修正的8%。减速反映了几个行业的增长疲软，包括农业（1.7%对4.2%）、制造业（5%对7.8%）、建筑业（6.7%对16.7%）、贸易（10%对16.8%）、酒店业（6.1%对6.9%）、运输和通信（1.1%对2.7%）、金融服务（25.8%对28.4%）、房地产（3.7%对6.3%）和教育（1.1%比1.3%）。公用事业（-9%对-3.6%）和公共部门（-0.9%对-0.8%）进一步萎缩。相比之下，渔业反弹（12.2%对-20.2%），社会和医疗服务回升（1.1%对0.6%），采矿业增长稳定在4.7%。经季节性调整后，月度活动下滑0.1%，而趋势周期部分上升0.4%。

Argentina's economic activity rose 5% year-on-year in May 2025, slowing from an upwardly revised 8% in April. The deceleration reflected weaker growth in several sectors, including agriculture (1.7% vs 4.2%), manufacturing (5% vs 7.8%), construction (6.7% vs 16.7%), trade (10% vs 16.8%), hospitality (6.1% vs 6.9%), transport and communications (1.1% vs 2.7%), financial services (25.8% vs 28.4%), real estate (3.7% vs 6.3%), and education (1.1% vs 1.3%). Utilities (-9% vs -3.6%) and the public sector (-0.9% vs -0.8%) fell deeper into contraction. In contrast, fishing rebounded (12.2% vs -20.2%), social and healthcare services picked up (1.1% vs 0.6%), and mining growth held steady at 4.7%. On a monthly, seasonally adjusted basis, activity slipped 0.1%, while the trend-cycle component rose 0.4%.

穆迪将阿根廷的长期外币和本币发行人评级上调了两个等级，从“Caa3”上调至“Caa1”，尽管该国仍处于垃圾区。该评级机构还将阿根廷的前景从积极调整为稳定，理由是汇率改革、有限的资本管制和国际货币基金组织的支持改善了货币流动性，减轻了外部压力。然而，稳定的前景反映了持续的信贷挑战和阿根廷对外账户的结构性再平衡有限。贸易条件的减弱可能会缩小该国的贸易顺差，这也是一个值得关注的问题。这是穆迪今年1月将阿根廷评级上调至“Caa3”后的第二次上调，这是五年多来的首次。由于债务重组谈判陷入僵局，以及疫情期间违约风险增加，该国的信用状况在2020年被下调。

Moody’s upgraded Argentina’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings by two notches, raising them to "Caa1" from "Caa3," though the country remains in junk territory. The ratings agency also revised Argentina’s outlook to stable from positive, citing improved currency liquidity and reduced external pressure due to exchange rate reforms, limited capital controls, and IMF support. However, the stable outlook reflects ongoing credit challenges and limited structural rebalancing of Argentina’s external accounts. Weaker trade terms that could shrink the country’s trade surplus were also noted as a concern. This marks the second upgrade this year, after Moody’s raised Argentina’s rating to "Caa3" in January—the first in more than five years. The country’s credit profile had been downgraded in 2020 due to stalled debt restructuring talks and heightened default risk during the pandemic.

穆迪将阿根廷评级上调两个等级，前景稳定。穆迪周四将阿根廷政府的长期外币和本币发行人评级从“Caa3”上调至“Caa1”，上调了两个等级，但仍处于所谓的垃圾级或非投资级区域。

Moody's hikes Argentina ratings up two notches, outlook stable.Moody's on Thursday hiked its rating for the government of Argentina's long-term foreign currency and local currency issuer ratings to "Caa1" from "Caa3", up two notches though it remains in so-called junk, or non-investment grade, territory.

2025年6月，阿根廷的贸易顺差从去年同期的18.8亿美元收窄至9.06亿美元，低于市场预期的6.81亿美元。进口额同比激增35.9%，达到63.7亿美元，主要原因是资本货物（+100.7%）、中间货物（+19.3%）、资本货物零部件（+37.2%）、消费品（+90.9%）和乘用车（+248.5%）的出货量大幅增加，而燃料和润滑油进口下降了57.9%。与此同时，出口增长10.8%，至72.75亿美元，工业制成品（+12.9%）和燃料与能源（+74.2%）增长，主要产品增长2.6%，部分被农产工业制成品下降0.1%所抵消。2025年上半年，贸易顺差为27.88亿美元，低于2024年同期的107.42亿美元。

Argentina’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 0.906 billion in June 2025, down from USD 1.88 billion in the same month last year, and below market expectations of USD 0.681 billion. Imports surged by 35.9% year-on-year to USD 6.37 billion, driven by significant increases in shipments of capital goods (+100.7%), intermediate goods (+19.3%), parts and accessories for capital goods (+37.2%), consumer goods (+90.9%) and passenger motor vehicles (+248.5%), while fuel and lubricants imports fell 57.9%. Meanwhile, exports rose 10.8% to USD 7.275 billion, amid gains in industrial manufactures (+12.9%) and fuels & energy (+74.2%), supported by a 2.6% increase in primary products and partly offset by a 0.1% decline in agro-industrial manufactures. For the first half of 2025, the trade surplus stood at USD 2.788 billion, down from USD 10.742 billion in the same period of 2024.