阿根廷MERVAL指数 (Merval) 加自选

阿根廷8月份消费者信心指数降至39.94，比7月份的46.37下降了13.9%。当前状况下降了14.9%，而未来预期下降了13.1%。在所有组成部分中，个人状况下降12.9%，宏观经济状况下降13.7%，耐用品和房地产下跌15.2%。与高收入家庭（-10.3%）相比，低收入家庭的信心恶化更为严重（-18.3%）。按年度计算，该指数比2024年8月低3.6%。

Argentina’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 39.94 in August, down 13.9% from July’s 46.37. Current Conditions fell 14.9%, while Future Expectations declined 13.1%. Across components, Personal Situation fell 12.9%, Macroeconomic Situation dropped 13.7%, and Durable Goods and Real Estate sank 15.2%. Confidence deteriorated more sharply among low-income households (-18.3%) compared with high-income households (-10.3%). On an annual basis, the index was 3.6% lower than in August 2024.

按当前价格计算，2025年6月阿根廷零售额同比增长27.8%，较上月45.1%的增长有所缓解。大多数零售行业的增长放缓，如美食广场和餐馆（33.7%对5月份的64.1%）、服装、鞋类和皮革制品（31.6%对32.9%）、药店和香水（24.3%对48.5%）、玩具（42.3%对72.0%）、电子和IT（20.0%对58.9%）、休闲娱乐（6.3%对141.1%）以及书店和文具店（23.0%对48.2%）。按不变价格调整后，零售额同比下降4.5%，低于5月份6.2%的增幅。

Retail sales in Argentina increased by 27.8% in June 2025 compared to the same period last year at current prices, easing from the 45.1% increase recorded in the previous month. Most retail sectors showed slower growth, such as food courts and restaurants (33.7% vs. 64.1% in May), clothing, footwear and leather goods (31.6% vs. 32.9%), pharmacies and perfumeries (24.3% vs. 48.5%), toys (42.3% vs. 72.0%), electronics and IT (20.0% vs. 58.9%), leisure and recreation (6.3% vs. 141.1%) and bookstores and stationery stores (23.0% vs. 48.2%). When adjusted to constant prices, retail sales fell 4.5% year-on-year, down from the 6.2% increase in May.

2025年7月，阿根廷的贸易顺差从一年前的14.59亿美元收窄至9.88亿美元，但这是今年最高的顺差，高于市场预期的6.90亿美元。进口同比增长17.7%，达到67.38亿美元，主要受资本货物（+51.9%）、消费品（+47.6%）、乘用车（+135.3%）和资本货物零部件（+19.4%）出货量大幅增长的推动，而中间产品下降5.6%，燃料和润滑油进口下降25.1%。与此同时，出口增长7.5%，达到77.27亿美元，初级产品（+22.8%）和工业制成品（+4.7%）增长，农产工业制成品增长5.3%，部分被燃料和能源下降9.7%所抵消。截至2025年7月，今年迄今为止，贸易顺差为37.5亿美元，低于2024年同期的122.01亿美元。

Argentina’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 0.988 billion in July 2025, down from USD 1.459 billion a year earlier, yet the highest surplus of the year and above market expectations of USD 0.690 billion. Imports rose 17.7% year-on-year to USD 6.738 billion, driven by significant increases in shipments of capital goods (+51.9%), consumer goods (+47.6%), passenger motor vehicles (+135.3%), and parts and accessories for capital goods (+19.4%), while intermediate goods fell 5.6% and fuel and lubricants imports dropped 25.1%. Meanwhile, exports rose 7.5% to USD 7.727 billion, amid gains in primary products (+22.8%) and industrial manufactures (+4.7%), supported by a 5.3% increase in agro-industrial manufactures and partly offset by a 9.7% decline in fuels & energy. For the year-to-date through July 2025, the trade surplus stood at USD 3.750 billion, down from USD 12.201 billion in the same period of 2024.

2025年7月，阿根廷消费者价格环比上涨1.9%，从5月份记录的2020年5月以来的最低月度通胀率1.5%进一步反弹，高于市场预期的1.8%的涨幅。食品和非酒精饮料（6月份为1.9%对0.6%）、交通（2.8%对1.6%）、餐馆和酒店（2.8%对2.1%）以及通信（2.3%对1.8%）的价格加速上涨。与此同时，服装和鞋类（-0.9%对0.5%）、教育（1.9%对3.7%）、住房和公用事业（1.5%对3.4%）以及健康（1.1%对2.2%）的价格放缓。与去年同期相比，消费者价格指数上涨了36.6%，这标志着通货紧缩的趋势，也是自2021年3月以来的最小涨幅，低于6月份的39.4%，与预测相符。

Consumer prices in Argentina rose 1.9% month-on-month in July 2025, rebounding further from the lowest monthly inflation rate since May 2020 of 1.5% recorded in May and above market expectations for a 1.8% increase. Prices accelerated for food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.9% vs. 0.6% in June), transportation (2.8% vs. 1.6%), restaurants and hotels (2.8% vs. 2.1%), and communications (2.3% vs. 1.8%). Meanwhile, prices slowed for clothing and footwear (-0.9% vs. 0.5%), education (1.9% vs. 3.7%), housing and utilities (1.5% vs. 3.4%), and health (1.1% vs. 2.2%). On a year-on-year basis, consumer prices rose 36.6%, marking the disinflation trend and the smallest increase since March 2021, down from 39.4% in June and matching projections.