墨西哥比索兑美元汇率超过20,从4月8日2022年3月以来的最低水平20.85进一步反弹,主要受美元广泛疲软的推动。美国通胀放缓的迹象加剧了人们对美联储即将降息的预期,对美元收益率造成了压力,而墨西哥相对紧缩的货币政策,Banxico将实际利率维持在远高于通胀的水平,继续吸引套利交易流入并支持货币稳定。尽管在美国关税言论不断变化的情况下,短期波动持续存在,特别是在西红柿等关键出口产品方面,但在特朗普阵营暗示半导体和电子等行业可能获得豁免后,投资者似乎不太担心全面的贸易中断。与此同时,谢恩鲍姆总统领导的正在进行的谈判突显了保护墨西哥贸易准入和安抚市场的战略推动,缓和了人们对更广泛贸易影响的担忧。
The Mexican peso strengthened past 20 per dollar, rebounding further from the lowest since March 2022 of 20.85 on April 8th, driven primarily by broad-based US dollar weakness. Signs of moderating inflation in the US have fueled expectations of forthcoming rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, weighing on dollar yields, while Mexico’s comparatively tight monetary policy, with Banxico maintaining real interest rates well above inflation, continues to attract carry trade inflows and support currency stability. Although short-term volatility persists amid shifting US tariff rhetoric—particularly regarding key exports like tomatoes—investors appear less concerned about sweeping trade disruptions following signals from Trump’s camp suggesting possible exemptions for sectors like semiconductors and electronics. Meanwhile, ongoing negotiations led by President Sheinbaum underscore a strategic push to protect Mexico’s trade access and reassure markets, tempered fears of a broader trade fallout.