墨西哥股票指数 (IPCMexico) 加自选

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率升至18.81，在地缘政治压力缓解、美联储鸽派信号和国内基本面有弹性的背景下达到十个月高点。尽管5月份失业率攀升至2.7%，但劳动力市场仍然处于历史性的紧张状态，即使第一季度国内生产总值温和收缩，也支撑着消费和收入，支撑着Banxico谨慎的宽松立场，并继续吸引套利流动。尽管整体通胀率为4.51%，Banxico仍将普遍预期的50个基点下调至8%，在保持实际收益率的同时缩小了名义利差，并通过将进一步宽松与即将公布的数据挂钩来缓和波动性。从外部来看，美中稀土出口贸易谈判的进展以及特朗普总统对美联储的反复批评提高了人们对美国降息的预期，削弱了美元，并进一步提振了比索。

The Mexican peso strengthened toward 18.81 per USD, reaching ten-month highs on the back of easing geopolitical strains, dovish signals from the Fed and resilient domestic fundamentals. Despite unemployment ticking up to 2.7% in May, the labour market remains historically tight, supporting consumption and incomes even as Q1 GDP contracted mildly, underpinning Banxico’s cautiously accommodative stance and continuing to attract carry flows. Banxico delivered a widely anticipated 50 bp cut to 8% despite 4.51% headline inflation—narrowing nominal differentials while preserving real yields and tempering volatility by tying further easing to incoming data. Externally, progress in US–China trade negotiations on rare-earth exports and President Trump’s repeated critiques of the Fed have lifted expectations of US rate cuts, weakening the dollar and further bolstering the peso.

墨西哥的失业率从一年前的2.6%微升至2025年5月的2.7%，有170万人失业，增加了8.3万人。在失业者中，42.6%的人失业一个月或更短时间，32.2%的人失业了一到三个月。女性失业人口从63.2万增加到71.5万，而男性失业人口总数仍接近100万。女性失业率为2.8%，男性为2.7%，女性失业率同比上升0.3个百分点。劳动力达到6170万人（59.5%），增加23.7万人。就业人数增加15.4万人，达到6000万人，占劳动力总数的97.3%。

Mexico’s unemployment rate rose slightly to 2.7% in May 2025 from 2.6% a year earlier, with 1.7 million people unemployed—an increase of 83,000. Of the jobless, 42.6% had been unemployed for a month or less, and 32.2% for one to three months. The female jobless population rose from 632,000 to 715,000, while the male total remained near one million. The unemployment rate was 2.8% for women and 2.7% for men, with the female rate rising 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The labor force reached 61.7 million (59.5% participation), up by 237,000. Employment rose by 154,000 to 60.0 million, covering 97.3% of the labor force.

尽管Banxico将利率下调50个基点至8%，但墨西哥比索兑美元汇率仍上涨至18.86，徘徊在十个月高点，正如广泛报道的那样，这是在美国国债收益率下降和美元走软的背景下发生的，这只是适度缩小了墨西哥的息差。在美联储的耐心信号将美元指数推至两年低点后，全球投资者一直在转向收益率更高的新兴市场资产，而墨西哥的实际利率前景在经过4.5%的同比整体通胀和4.2%的核心CPI调整后，仍然是20国集团中最具吸引力的。5月份强劲的贸易和财政流入，包括10亿美元的外部盈余和7%的收入增长，支撑了比索需求，同时出现了第二季度GDP扩张的迹象。最后，Banxico承诺，如果通胀偏离其3%的目标，将重新收紧货币政策，这增强了人们对其稳定政策框架的信心。

The Mexican peso strengthened toward 18.86 per USD, hovering at ten-month highs despite Banxico’s 50 bp rate cut to 8%, as widely telegraphed and occurred in a context of falling US Treasury yields and a softer dollar, which narrowed Mexico’s interest-rate differential only modestly. Global investors have been recycling into higher-yielding emerging-market assets after Fed signals of patience pushed the dollar index to two-year lows, while Mexico’s real-rate outlook remains among the most attractive in the G20 once adjusted for its 4.5% year-on-year headline inflation and 4.2% core CPI. Robust May trade and fiscal inflows, including a $1 billion external surplus and 7% revenue growth, have underpinned peso demand alongside signs of Q2 GDP expansion. Finally, Banxico’s pledge to re-tighten should inflation deviate from its 3% goal has reinforced confidence in its steady policy framework.

6月26日，墨西哥银行将关键利率下调50个基点至8.00%，因为到6月中旬，年通货膨胀率上升至4.51%，4月份国内经济适度扩张，但疲软依然存在。该公告表明，美联储委员会可以继续校准类似的50个基点的降息幅度，预计通货紧缩过程将允许进一步的宽松周期，同时保持限制性立场。然而，在全球不确定性加剧（从贸易紧张局势到地缘政治冲突）的情况下，央行仍然保持谨慎，这可能会通过比索贬值重新引发通货膨胀或加剧经济放缓。尽管3%通胀目标的进展正在按计划进行，预测到2026年第三季度将趋于一致，但成员们强调了灵活的政策框架对于管理通胀预期和维护金融稳定的重要性，特别是考虑到比索最近的升值。

The Bank of Mexico lowered its key rate by 50 bps to 8.00% on June 26th, as annual inflation increased to 4.51% by mid-June and the domestic economy expanded moderately in April, though slack persists. The release indicated that the Board could continue calibrating similar 50 bps cuts, anticipating that the disinflation process will allow a further easing cycle while maintaining a restrictive stance. However, the central bank remains cautious amid elevated global uncertainty—ranging from trade tensions to geopolitical conflicts—that could reignite inflation via peso depreciation or deepen the economic slowdown. While progress toward the 3% inflation target is on track, with forecasts pointing to convergence by the third quarter of 2026, members underscored the importance of a flexible policy framework to manage inflation expectations and preserve financial stability, particularly given the peso’s recent appreciation.