墨西哥股票指数 (IPCMexico) 加自选

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率升至18.40，徘徊在一年高点附近，尽管有迹象表明价格压力缓解和增长放缓，但该货币继续受益于套利交易吸引力。10月上半月，消费者价格同比上涨3.63%，略低于3.71%的普遍水平，而墨西哥经济活动指数在7月份下降1.1%后，8月份同比下降0.9%，略低于预期。由于没有出现重大意外，市场不得不为更渐进的宽松路径定价，而不是突然的流动性冲击。即使在最近降息之后，墨西哥的实际收益率仍然比许多同行高得多，这维持了套利流动并吸引了外国证券投资。与此同时，美国政府融资决议的前景和美中贸易战决议的希望降低了外部需求突然停止的可能性，从而降低了当前的外部风险溢价。

The Mexican peso strengthened to 18.40 per US dollar, hovering near one-year highs as the currency continues to benefit from carry-trade appeal despite signs of easing price pressures and slowing growth. Consumer prices rose 3.63% year-on-year in the first half of October, marginally below the 3.71% consensus, while Mexico’s economic activity index fell 0.9% year-on-year in August after a 1.1% decline in July and was slightly less weak than expected. The absence of major surprises has left markets to price a more gradual easing path rather than abrupt liquidity shocks. Mexico still offers materially higher real yields than many peers even after recent rate cuts, which sustains carry flows and attracts foreign portfolio investment. Meanwhile, prospects of a US government funding resolution and hopes for a US–China trade war resolution have reduced the immediate external risk premium by lowering the odds of a sudden stop in external demand.

2025年8月，墨西哥的零售额同比增长2.4%，与7月份的增长速度持平。在线和目录销售（17.3%）、家用电器（7.2%）、百货商店（4.8%）以及机动车和燃料（2.5%）的强劲增长推动了增长。食品杂货和饮料（-2.7%）、五金、油漆用品和玻璃制品（-2.2%）、文具和娱乐用品（-0.8%）以及纺织品和鞋类（-0.2%）均有所下降。零售业就业人数增长0.7%，工资增长4.5%。经季节性调整后，商品和服务的实际收入环比微涨0.1%。

Retail sales in Mexico rose 2.4% year-on-year in August 2025, matching July’s pace. Growth was driven by strong gains in online and catalog sales (17.3%), household appliances (7.2%), department stores (4.8%), and motor vehicles and fuels (2.5%). Declines were recorded in groceries and beverages (-2.7%), hardware, paint supplies, and glass products (-2.2%), stationery and recreational goods (-0.8%), and textiles and footwear (-0.2%). Retail employment rose 0.7%, while wages increased 4.5%. Seasonally adjusted, real income from goods and services edged up 0.1% month-on-month.

墨西哥上半月核心通胀率为0.18%，低于10月份的预期（0.19%）。墨西哥上半月核心通胀率为0.18%，低于10月份的预期（0.19%）

Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation came in at 0.18%, below expectations (0.19%) in October.Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation came in at 0.18%, below expectations (0.19%) in October

墨西哥10月上半月通胀低于预期（0.36%）：实际（0.28%）。墨西哥10月上半月通胀低于预期（0.36%）：实际（0.28%）

Mexico 1st half-month Inflation below forecasts (0.36%) in October: Actual (0.28%).Mexico 1st half-month Inflation below forecasts (0.36%) in October: Actual (0.28%)