墨西哥股票指数 (IPCMexico) 加自选

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率稳定在18.68左右，接近7月10日创下的18.60的一年高点，这得益于外部美元疲软、《美墨加协定》下的免关税准入以及有吸引力的国内息差。随着人们对华盛顿8月1日的关税最后期限不会破坏贸易的信心增强，美元指数下跌，墨西哥迄今为止避免了互惠征税，这要归功于特朗普总统暂时暂停征收新关税，巩固了出口竞争力，缓解了经常账户压力。在国内，Banxico在6月26日将关键利率下调50个基点至8.00%，原因是7月份的年通胀率为4.51%，GDP增长缓慢且持续疲软。Banxico表示，随着通货紧缩的持续，将进一步下调50个百分点。同时，如果新的贸易紧张局势或地缘政治冲击威胁到比索贬值并重新点燃通胀预期，Banxiko仍准备暂停加息，从而维持较高的实际收益率并增强比索的吸引力。

The Mexican peso steadied around 18.68 per USD, near its one-year high of 18.60 reached on July 10th, supported by external dollar weakness, preserved tariff-free access under USMCA and attractive domestic interest differentials. The US Dollar Index declined as confidence grew that Washington’s August 1st tariff deadline would not derail trade, and Mexico has so far avoided reciprocal levies thanks to President Trump’s temporary pause on new tariffs, underpinning export competitiveness and easing current-account pressures. At home, after cutting its key rate by 50 bps to 8.00% on June 26th amid 4.51% annual inflation in July and modest GDP growth with lingering slack, Banxico signaled further 50 bps reductions as disinflation takes hold, while remaining ready to pause should renewed trade tensions or geopolitical shocks threaten peso depreciation and rekindle inflation expectations, thereby sustaining elevated real yields and reinforcing the peso’s appeal.

2025年5月，墨西哥零售额同比增长2.7%，从4月份2%的下降中反弹。复苏范围广泛，9个行业中有8个行业出现增长。在线和目录销售（9.6%）、纺织品和鞋类（8.8%）以及文具和娱乐用品等个人用品（9.5%）均出现显著增长。保健品（3.5%）和杂货和饮料（4.9%）的销售额也有所增长。相比之下，硬件和玻璃销售额下降了3.4%。与此同时，零售业从业人员总数增长0.7%，平均工资增长5.6%。按月计算，商品和服务供应的实际收入增长了1.8%。

Retail sales in Mexico rose 2.7% year-on-year in May 2025, rebounding from a 2% decline in April. The recovery was broad-based, with eight out of nine sectors posting gains. Notable increases were seen in online and catalog sales (9.6%), textiles and footwear (8.8%), and personal goods such as stationery and recreational items (9.5%). Sales of healthcare products (3.5%) and groceries and beverages (4.9%) also rose. In contrast, hardware and glass sales fell by 3.4%. Meanwhile, total employed personnel in retail grew by 0.7%, and average wages increased by 5.6%. On a monthly basis, real income from the supply of goods and services rose 1.8%.

2025年5月，墨西哥经济活动指数同比下降0.2%，此前4月修正后下降1.7%，低于市场预期的0.5%增长。工业生产下降0.8%，较上月4%的收缩有所缓解，因为采矿产量下降8.4%（对比-7.7%），公用事业下降3.7%（对比-1.8%）。制造业小幅反弹，在4月份下降2.5%后上涨0.5%。与此同时，服务业产出在4月份下跌0.5%后萎缩0.2%，主要受批发贸易（-9.9%对-8.4%）、住宿和餐饮服务（-1.6%对-1.9%）以及文化、体育和娱乐活动（-0.2%对+7.5%）大幅收缩的影响。

Mexico’s economic activity index fell 0.2% year-on-year in May 2025, following a revised 1.7% drop in April and missing market expectations of 0.5% growth. Industrial production declined by 0.8%, easing from a 4% contraction the previous month, as mining output dropped 8.4% (vs. -7.7%) and utilities fell 3.7% (vs. -1.8%). Manufacturing offered a modest rebound, rising 0.5% after a 2.5% decline in April. Meanwhile, services output shrank by 0.2%, following a 0.5% decrease in April, weighed down by sharp contractions in wholesale trade (-9.9% vs. -8.4%), accommodation and food services (-1.6% vs. -1.9%), and cultural, sporting, and recreational activities (-0.2% vs. +7.5%).

墨西哥Sheinbaum：如果未与美国达成协议，墨西哥将宣布其他措施。墨西哥总统Sheinbaum正在进行反击：如果8月1日前未能与美国就新关税达成协议，墨西哥将宣布其他措施。她不同意美国对西红柿征收的关税。昨天，她暗示他们正在尽其所能打击贩毒集团，美国需要尽其职责。

Mexico Sheinbaum: Mexico will announce other measures if an agreement w/US is not reached.The Mexican president Sheinbaum, is fighting back a little: Mexico will announce other measures if an agreement with the US on new tariffs is not reached by August 1. She disagrees with US duties imposed on tomatoes Yesterday she implied that they were doing what they can against the drug cartels, and that the US needed to do its share.