墨西哥股票指数 (IPCMexico) 加自选

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率升至18.6左右，接近7月23日创下的18.537的一年高点，原因是美元走软和仍然具有吸引力的套利状况提振了比索。杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）言论提高了美联储9月降息的可能性，并压低了DXY指数，缓解了美元的广泛压力，并支撑了高利差的新兴市场货币。与此同时，Banxico于8月15日通过投票将利率下调25个基点至7.75%，会议纪要中省略了之前承诺进一步宽松的措辞，这一组合表明逐步宽松而不是激进的转向，并保持了积极的实际收益率。7月份的整体通胀率降至3.51%，而核心通胀率仍保持在4.23%，这一组合进一步支持了适度的降息步伐，并使墨西哥的收益率溢价保持吸引力。再加上有弹性的外部账户和年中商品盈余，这减轻了国际收支压力，结果是比索反弹。

The Mexican peso strengthened to about 18.6 per USD, closing in on its one-year high of 18.537 reached on July 23rd, as a softer dollar and a still-attractive carry profile boosted the peso. Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks raised odds of a September Fed cut and knocked the DXY lower, easing broad dollar pressure and supporting high-carry emerging market currencies. At the same time Banxico’s August 15th quarter-point cut to 7.75% was delivered by a split vote and the minutes omitted previous language promising further easing, a combination that signals gradual easing rather than an aggressive pivot and preserves positive real yields. July headline inflation eased to 3.51% while core inflation remained stickier at 4.23%, a mix that further supports a measured pace of rate cuts and keeps Mexico’s yield premium attractive. Add resilient external accounts and a mid-year goods surplus that reduce balance-of-payments stress and the result is a peso rally.

2025年6月，墨西哥经济活动指数同比增长1.3%，此前一个月修正后的数据持平，但略低于估计的1.5%的增长。农业部门强劲增长4.6%，是主要增长引擎，服务业增长2.1%，两者都超过了工业0.4%的下滑。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，6月份经济活动在上个月上调0.1%后，增长了0.2%。考虑到2025年上半年，墨西哥的经济活动比一年前增长了0.3%。

Mexico’s economic activity index rose by 1.3% year-on-year in June 2025, following a revised flat reading in the prior month but slightly below the estimated 1.5% increase. The agricultural sector, with a robust 4.6% increase, was the primary growth engine, aided by a 2.1% rise in services, both of which outweighed the 0.4% downturn in industry. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity went up by 0.2% in June, after an upwardly revised 0.1% increase in the prior month. Considering the first half of 2025, Mexican economic activity rose by 0.3% over a year ago.

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率稳定在18.76左右，距离本月早些时候创下的一个月低点18.88不远，因为市场通过分歧投票消化了Banxico将基准利率下调25个基点至7.75%的决定，这一举措因该行前瞻性指导的温和而有所缓和，之前没有承诺进一步降息，同时承认通胀仍高于目标，经济增长仍然温和。会议纪要强调，7月份整体通胀率降至3.51%，而核心通胀率仍高达4.23%。这种混合信号既表明货币政策放松，也表明通胀担忧挥之不去，从而产生了抵消作用，因为一些投资者认为降息是温和的，而另一些投资者则对持续的成本压力持谨慎态度。

The Mexican peso steadied around 18.76 per USD, not far from its one-month low of 18.88 seen earlier this month, as markets digested Banxico’s decision to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 7.75% through a divided vote, a move tempered by moderation in the bank’s forward guidance with the omission of prior language promising further cuts while simultaneously acknowledging that inflation remains above target and economic growth remains modest. The minutes underlined that headline inflation eased to 3.51% in July while core inflation remained elevated at 4.23%. That mix signals both easing monetary policy and lingering inflation concerns, resulting in offsetting forces as some investors welcome the rate cut as dovish while others remain cautious about persistent cost pressures.

2025年6月，墨西哥零售额同比增长2.5%，略低于5月的2.7%。复苏范围广泛，9个行业中有8个行业出现增长。在线和目录销售额增长50.6%，个人用品增长11.3%，家用电器及相关产品增长7%。医疗保健产品（3%）、杂货和饮料（0.2%）、自助服务和百货商店（0.9%）、五金和玻璃（2.6%）以及机动车和燃料（3.1%）的销售额也有所增长。纺织和鞋类（-2.2%）是唯一下降的行业。零售业就业人数增长0.3%，工资增长7.1%。按月计算，商品和服务的实际收入下降了0.4%。

Retail sales in Mexico rose 2.5% year-on-year in June 2025, easing slightly from 2.7% in May. The recovery was broad-based, with eight of nine sectors posting gains. Online and catalog sales jumped 50.6%, personal goods rose 11.3%, and household appliances and related items increased 7%. Sales also grew in healthcare products (3%), groceries and beverages (0.2%), self-service and department stores (0.9%), hardware and glass (2.6%), and motor vehicles and fuels (3.1%). Textiles and footwear (-2.2%) was the only sector to decline. Retail employment rose 0.3%, while wages increased 7.1%. On a monthly basis, real income from goods and services fell 0.4%.