墨西哥股票指数 (IPCMexico) 加自选

2024年最后三个月，墨西哥国内生产总值比上一季度收缩了0.6%，削减了上一季度1.1%的扩张，符合初步估计，证实了0.2%的降幅远低于预期。这是自2021年第三季度以来最严重的收缩，与央行发出的信号一致，即今年可能适合更大幅度的降息，特别是如果美国政府兑现关税威胁的话。主要活动的产出比上一季度下降了8.5%，而工业产出下降了1.5%。反过来，服务业产出小幅上涨0.2%。按年度计算，墨西哥第四季度国内生产总值增长了0.5%，较初步读数0.6%有所下调。全年，墨西哥经济增长了1.2%。

The Mexican gross domestic product contracted by 0.6% from the previous quarter in the final three months of 2024, trimming the 1.1% expansion in the previous period and in line with preliminary estimates to confirm the sharp miss of expectations of a 0.2% drop. It was the sharpest contraction since the third quarter of 2021, aligned with signals from the central bank that larger rate cuts may be appropriate this year, especially if the US government follows through with tariff threats. Output from primary activities plunged by 8.5% from the previous quarter, while output from industry fell by 1.5%. In turn, services output edged higher by 0.2%. On an annual basis, the Mexican GDP expanded by 0.5% in the fourth quarter, revised lower from the preliminary reading of 0.6%. For the full year, the Mexican economy expanded by 1.2%.

2024年12月，墨西哥的经济活动同比下降0.4%，这是六个月来的首次收缩，此前11月增长了0.5%，而预测的增长率为0.3%。农业部门下降了8%，建筑业下降了7.5%，采矿业下降了6.3%，制造业下降了0.6%。另一方面，服务业增长1.3%，即专业、科技服务业（10.1%）。金融和保险服务（6.7%）和零售业（1.9%）也有所上升。与此同时，与上月相比，经济活动萎缩了1%。

Economic activity in Mexico decreased 0.4% year-on-year in December 2024, the first contraction in six months, after a 0.5% rise in November, and compared to forecasts of a 0.3% rise. The agricultural sector dropped 8%, construction plunged 7.5%, mining was down 6.3% and manufacturing decreased 0.6%. On the other hand, the services sector went up 1.3%, namely professional, scientific and technical services (10.1%). Financial and insurance services (6.7%) and retail trade (1.9%) were also higher. Meanwhile, compared to the previous month, economic activity shrank 1%.

墨西哥央行Banxico在2月6日宣布的一项决定中将其关键利率下调了0.5个百分点，至9.50%，原因是通货膨胀降温，去年年底经济略有收缩。会议纪要显示，几名董事会成员现在预计，如果通缩继续下去，3月27日的会议上将出现类似的50个基点的下降，这表明宽松周期可能会加速。然而，在全球存在重大不确定性的情况下，央行仍持谨慎态度，尤其是美国潜在的关税威胁和更广泛的地缘政治风险，这些风险可能通过货币贬值加剧通货膨胀，也可能因经济疲软加剧而抑制增长。尽管在实现3%通胀目标方面取得了显著进展，但成员们强调了灵活政策框架的重要性，该框架允许在货币政策的“新阶段”迅速调整，而不会危及金融稳定，特别是考虑到目前与美联储的利率差异。

Banxico, as the Mexican central bank is known, lowered its key rate by half a percentage point to 9.50% in a decision announced on February 6, as inflation cooled and after the economy contracted slightly late last year. The minutes revealed that several board members now foresee a similar 50bps reduction at the March 27 meeting if disinflation continues, signaling a potential acceleration of the easing cycle. However, the central bank remains cautious amid significant global uncertainties, notably potential U.S. tariff threats and broader geopolitical risks that could either fuel inflation through currency depreciation or dampen growth due to increased economic slack. While progress towards the 3% inflation target has been notable, members stressed the importance of a flexible policy framework, one that allows for swift adjustments in a "new stage" of monetary policy without jeopardizing financial stability, particularly given the current rate differential with the Federal Reserve.

墨西哥比索反弹，零售额超过预期，Banxico保持温和。墨西哥比索卷土重来，兑美元上涨0.23%以上。12月的零售额超过了预期，但与上月相比仍落后。

Mexican Peso rebounds as Retail Sales beat forecasts, Banxico stays dovish.The Mexican Peso staged a comeback, rising over 0.23% against the Greenback. Retail Sales in December exceeded estimates, yet they lagged compared to the previous month's figures.