墨西哥股票指数 (IPCMexico) 加自选

墨西哥贸易差额s/a，美元：5.95亿美元（6月）对0.59亿美元。墨西哥贸易差额s/a，美元：5.95亿美元（6月）对0.59亿美元

Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $: $0.595B (June) vs $-0.059B.Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $: $0.595B (June) vs $-0.059B

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率稳定在18.55左右，停止了7月23日达到的18.537的一年高点的反弹，因为美元从两周低点部分反弹，这是由于对美国-欧盟贸易谈判的新乐观情绪和美国有弹性的失业申请数据缓和了对美联储即将放松的预期。然而，在国内方面，月中核心通胀率加速至4.25%，为2024年5月以来的最高水平，突显出持续的潜在价格压力，并消除了Banxico降息的任何短期前景。

The Mexican peso steadied around 18.55 per USD, halting its rally that took it to its one-year high of 18.537 reached on July 23rd, as the US dollar staged a partial rebound from its two-week lows, driven by fresh optimism over US–EU trade talks and resilient US jobless-claims data that tempered expectations for imminent Fed easing. However, on the domestic front, mid-month core inflation accelerated to 4.25%, its highest since May 2024, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures and quashing any near-term prospect of a rate cut by Banxico.

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率稳定在18.68左右，接近7月10日创下的18.60的一年高点，这得益于外部美元疲软、《美墨加协定》下的免关税准入以及有吸引力的国内息差。随着人们对华盛顿8月1日的关税最后期限不会破坏贸易的信心增强，美元指数下跌，墨西哥迄今为止避免了互惠征税，这要归功于特朗普总统暂时暂停征收新关税，巩固了出口竞争力，缓解了经常账户压力。在国内，Banxico在6月26日将关键利率下调50个基点至8.00%，原因是7月份的年通胀率为4.51%，GDP增长缓慢且持续疲软。Banxico表示，随着通货紧缩的持续，将进一步下调50个百分点。同时，如果新的贸易紧张局势或地缘政治冲击威胁到比索贬值并重新点燃通胀预期，Banxiko仍准备暂停加息，从而维持较高的实际收益率并增强比索的吸引力。

The Mexican peso steadied around 18.68 per USD, near its one-year high of 18.60 reached on July 10th, supported by external dollar weakness, preserved tariff-free access under USMCA and attractive domestic interest differentials. The US Dollar Index declined as confidence grew that Washington’s August 1st tariff deadline would not derail trade, and Mexico has so far avoided reciprocal levies thanks to President Trump’s temporary pause on new tariffs, underpinning export competitiveness and easing current-account pressures. At home, after cutting its key rate by 50 bps to 8.00% on June 26th amid 4.51% annual inflation in July and modest GDP growth with lingering slack, Banxico signaled further 50 bps reductions as disinflation takes hold, while remaining ready to pause should renewed trade tensions or geopolitical shocks threaten peso depreciation and rekindle inflation expectations, thereby sustaining elevated real yields and reinforcing the peso’s appeal.

2025年5月，墨西哥零售额同比增长2.7%，从4月份2%的下降中反弹。复苏范围广泛，9个行业中有8个行业出现增长。在线和目录销售（9.6%）、纺织品和鞋类（8.8%）以及文具和娱乐用品等个人用品（9.5%）均出现显著增长。保健品（3.5%）和杂货和饮料（4.9%）的销售额也有所增长。相比之下，硬件和玻璃销售额下降了3.4%。与此同时，零售业从业人员总数增长0.7%，平均工资增长5.6%。按月计算，商品和服务供应的实际收入增长了1.8%。

Retail sales in Mexico rose 2.7% year-on-year in May 2025, rebounding from a 2% decline in April. The recovery was broad-based, with eight out of nine sectors posting gains. Notable increases were seen in online and catalog sales (9.6%), textiles and footwear (8.8%), and personal goods such as stationery and recreational items (9.5%). Sales of healthcare products (3.5%) and groceries and beverages (4.9%) also rose. In contrast, hardware and glass sales fell by 3.4%. Meanwhile, total employed personnel in retail grew by 0.7%, and average wages increased by 5.6%. On a monthly basis, real income from the supply of goods and services rose 1.8%.