智利股票指数 (IGPA) 加自选

2025年7月，智利生产者价格指数同比上涨5.6%，高于6月的4.6%。这一加速是由公用事业价格上涨22.4%推动的，略低于6月份的26.2%，而矿业通胀从3.1%加快至5.8%。相比之下，制造业通胀从0.5%放缓至0.2%。按月计算，生产者价格指数上涨1.2%，略低于5月份1.3%的涨幅。

Producer prices in Chile rose 5.6% year-on-year in July 2025, up from 4.6% in June. The acceleration was driven by a 22.4% jump in utility prices, slightly below June’s 26.2%, while mining inflation quickened to 5.8% from 3.1%. In contrast, manufacturing inflation slowed to 0.2% from 0.5%. On a monthly basis, producer prices rose 1.2%, easing slightly from May’s 1.3% increase.

智利在2025年第二季度的经常账户赤字为32.5亿美元，是2023年第三季度以来的最大赤字，比去年同期的18.6亿美元有所扩大。主要收入赤字从49.4亿美元增加到55.9亿美元，主要是由于直接投资收入短缺46.1亿美元，因为外国投资者在智利获得了58.1亿美元的收入，而智利在海外的投资产生了12.1亿美元。与此同时，服务短缺从23.8亿美元增至24.7亿美元，商品顺差从2024年6月的52.6亿美元缩减至45.2亿美元，进口（+13.1%）增长超过出口（+7%）。相反，在净转移3亿美元的推动下，次级收入盈余从2亿美元增至3亿美元，这反映了智利外国投资支付的股息带来的额外税收收入。

Chile logged a current account deficit of $3.25 billion in Q2 2025, the largest since Q3 2023 and widening from $1.86 billion in the same period a year ago. The primary income deficit increased to $5.59 billion from $4.94 billion, mainly due to a $4.61 billion shortfall in direct investment income, as foreign investors earned $5.81 billion in Chile, while Chilean investments abroad generated $1.21 billion. At the same time, the services shortfall rose to $2.47 billion from $2.38 billion, and the goods surplus shrank to $4.52 billion from $5.26 billion in June 2024, with imports (+13.1%) growing more than exports (+7%). Conversely, the secondary income surplus rose to US$0.3 billion from US$0.2 billion, driven by net transfers of US$300 million, reflecting additional tax revenues on dividends paid by foreign investments in Chile.

2025年第二季度，智利经济同比增长3.3%，高于上一季度上调后的2.5%，也高于市场预期的2.9%。由于家庭消费（3.1%对2%）和投资（5.6%对1.5%），国内需求从上一季度的1.6%回升至5.8%。然而，公共支出有所下降（2.6%对3.9%）。净外部需求对经济增长产生了负面影响，进口增长14.6%，出口增长5.4%。经季节性调整的季度数据显示，第二季度经济同比增长0.4%。

Chile’s economy expanded by 3.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, accelerating from an upwardly revised 2.5% increase in the previous quarter and above market expectations of a 2.9% rise. Domestic demand picked up to 5.8% from 1.6% in the prior quarter, due to household consumption (3.1% vs 2%) and investment (5.6% vs 1.5%). However, public spending eased (2.6% vs 3.9%). Net external demand contributed negatively to growth, with imports rising 14.6% while exports increased at a softer 5.4%. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy grew by 0.4% from the previous period in Q2.

智利国家铜委员会Cochilco将其2025年产量增长预测从之前的3%下调至1.5%，理由是必和必拓的Escondida矿和Collahuasi矿6月份产量下降。全球最大的铜出口国今年的产量预计仍将达到558万公吨，2025-2026年的平均铜价保持在4.30美元/磅。Cochilco警告称，6月份的下降是“一个转折点”，Codelco的El Teniente矿的致命坍塌可能会构成“供应中断的重大风险”。2026年，它将增长保持在3%，但将产量估计降至575万吨。在全球范围内，由于精矿供应有限和需求强劲，尤其是来自中国和其他新兴经济体的需求，预计价格将保持高位，2026年精炼铜的需求将达到2700万吨。预计到2025年，中国的消费量将达到1570万吨，而在工业化和能源转型的推动下，印度的需求预计将增长7.5%。

Chile’s state copper commission, Cochilco, cut its 2025 output growth forecast to 1.5% from 3% previously, citing a June production drop at BHP’s Escondida mine and Collahuasi. Production in the world’s top copper exporter is still expected to reach 5.58 million metric tons this year, with average copper prices for 2025–2026 maintained at $4.30/lb. Cochilco warned the June decline was “a turning point” and that a deadly collapse at Codelco’s El Teniente mine could pose a “significant risk of supply disruption.” For 2026, it kept growth at 3% but lowered output estimates to 5.75 million tons. Globally, prices are expected to stay high due to limited concentrate supply and strong demand, especially from China and other emerging economies, with demand for refined copper set to hit 27 million tons in 2026. China is projected to consume 15.7 million tons in 2025, while India’s demand is expected to rise 7.5%, driven by industrialization and the energy transition.