智利股票指数 (IGPA) 加自选

智利的生产者价格通胀率从1月份的12.7%降至2025年2月的8.6%，为五个月来的最低水平。制造业（2.2%对1月份的5.7%）和采矿业（9.5%对15%）的成本有所下降。另一方面，公用事业成本加快（26.8%对26%）。按月计算，生产者价格指数下降0.8%，1月份上涨2.2%。

Producer price inflation in Chile fell to 8.6% in February 2025, the lowest in five months, from 12.7% in January. Cost eased for manufacturing (2.2% vs 5.7% in January) and mining (9.5% vs 15%). On the other hand, costs of utilities accelerated (26.8% vs 26%). On a monthly basis, producer prices went down 0.8%, ater a 2.2% advance in January.

智利央行在3月份的会议上一致决定将政策利率保持在5%。董事会提到，自上次会议以来，由于地缘政治风险升级、美国新的关税公告以及受影响国家的回应，全球经济的不确定性有所上升。这尤其影响了美国的增长前景，并提高了通胀预期，导致美联储暂停了降息周期。全球金融市场的反应不同，美国股市下跌，而欧洲和中国股市上涨。美元走弱推高了大宗商品价格，自上次会议以来，铜价格上涨了8%，而由于全球增长担忧，油价下跌了约9%。在智利，金融市场跟随了更广泛的新兴市场趋势，利率下降，比索升值7%，IPSA指数上涨6%。

The Central Bank of Chile unanimously decided to keep the policy interest rate at 5% at its March meeting. The Board mentioned that global economic uncertainty has risen since the last meeting due to escalating geopolitical risks and new US tariff announcements, along with responses from affected countries. This has particularly impacted U.S. growth prospects and raised inflation expectations, leading the Federal Reserve to pause its rate-cutting cycle. Global financial markets have reacted differently, with U.S. equities declining while European and Chinese stocks have risen. The weakening U.S. dollar has boosted commodity prices, with copper rising 8% since the last meeting, while oil prices have dropped around 9% due to global growth concerns. In Chile, financial markets have followed broader emerging-market trends, with lower interest rates, a 7% appreciation of the peso, and a 6% gain in the IPSA index.

2024年最后一个季度，智利经济同比增长4%，这是自2022年第二季度以来最强劲的增长，此前第三季度向下修正了2%的增长，略高于3.7%的市场预期。采矿业飙升7.3%，明显超过第三季度4.6%的增长率，而非采矿业增长3.7%，高于1.9%。与此同时，国内需求反弹（4.3%对-0.2%），这是由于家庭支出增长2%（对1%）和投资复苏（3.3%对-0.8%），尽管公共支出下降（-1.8%对6.7%）。此外，出口（9.2%对7.3%）和进口（10.2%对1.2%）均加速增长。按季度计算，智利的国内生产总值增长了0.4%，低于第三季度向上修正的1.5%，略低于预期的0.5%。2024年全年，经济增长2.6%，主要得益于强劲的出口表现。

Chile's economy expanded by 4% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2024, marking the strongest growth since Q2 2022, following a downwardly revised 2% increase in Q3 and slightly exceeded market expectations of 3.7%. The mining sector surged by 7.3%, significantly outperforming the 4.6% growth seen in Q3, while the non-mining sector grew by 3.7%, up from 1.9%. Meanwhile, domestic demand rebounded (4.3% vs. -0.2%), driven by a 2% rise in household spending (vs. 1%) and a recovery in investment (3.3% vs. -0.8%), though public expenditure declined (-1.8% vs. 6.7%). Additionally, both exports (9.2% vs. 7.3%) and imports (10.2% vs. 1.2%) accelerated. On a quarterly basis, Chile’s GDP expanded by 0.4%, down from an upwardly revised 1.5% in Q3 and slightly below the expected 0.5%. For the full year 2024, the economy grew by 2.6%, largely driven by strong export performance.

2024年第四季度，智利的经常账户赤字从去年同期的26.6亿美元收窄至17.8亿美元。商品顺差从一年前的35.3亿美元急剧增加到47.6亿美元，而服务缺口从23.6亿美元略微下降到22.1亿美元。与此同时，初级收入差距从去年的40亿美元上升到42.8亿美元。2024年全年，智利的经常账户赤字从2023年的105亿美元降至48.5亿美元，主要原因是出口激增。

Chile's current account deficit narrowed to $1.78 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 from $2.66 billion in the same period last year. The goods surplus increased sharply to $4.76 billion from $3.53 billion a year ago, while the services gap was slightly down at $2.21 billion, compared with $2.36 billion. Meanwhile, the primary income gap rose to $4.28 billion from $4.00 billion last year. For the full year of 2024, Chile's current account deficit declined to $4.85 billion from $10.50 billion in 2023, mainly driven by a surge in exports.