棉花期货的涨势延续至每磅近66美分,为9月中旬以来的最高点,与美国粮食市场的涨势一致。对美中贸易协议的乐观情绪以及中国最近购买大豆的情况提高了天然纤维的需求前景。油价上涨提供了进一步的支撑。然而,美国政府停摆已进入第四周,推迟了几份关键的经济和农业报告,包括美国农业部的月度供需报告,增加了市场预测的不确定性。政府停摆还扰乱了棉花贸易流动,限制了官方数据的获取,降低了整体市场透明度。与此同时,印度2024/25销售年度的棉花产量预计将降至略高于2940万包,为15年多来的最低水平,延续了2013/14年度3980万包的峰值下降趋势。
Cotton futures extended their rally to near 66 cents per pound, the highest since mid-September, tracking gains in the US grain markets. Optimism over a US-China trade deal and recent soybean purchases by China raised demand prospects for the natural fiber. Rising oil prices provided further support. However, the US government shutdown, now in its fourth week, has postponed several key economic and agricultural reports, including the USDA’s monthly supply and demand report, increasing uncertainty for market forecasts. The shutdown has also disrupted cotton trade flows, limiting access to official data and reducing overall market transparency. Meanwhile, India’s cotton production for the 2024/25 marketing year is expected to drop to just over 294 lakh bales, its lowest in more than 15 years, extending the downward trend from the peak of 398 lakh bales in 2013/14.