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2026年美联储降息，市场分裂，圣诞老人集会待命。美元本周大部分时间都被钉在业绩板的底部，因为稳定的数据流强化了对美联储12月降息的预期。尽管周五抛售压力略有缓解，部分原因是长期国债收益率出人意料地强劲反弹，但美元仍难以站稳脚跟。

Santa Rally on Standby with Markets Split on 2026 Fed Cuts.Dollar spent most of the week pinned to the bottom of the performance board, as a steady flow of data reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut in December. Even though selling pressure eased slightly into Friday—thanks in part to a surprisingly firm rebound in longer-dated Treasury yields—the greenback still struggled to find a foothold.

一周前：美联储将降息，但澳大利亚储备银行、瑞士央行和加拿大银行将保持不变，市场认为他们已经完成了。上周，美元交易量很大，输给了所有G10货币，但瑞士法郎除外。法郎的使用似乎拖累了法郎，而不是日元作为融资货币。

Week Ahead: Fed to Cut but RBA, SNB, and Bank of Canada Set to Hold, and Market Thinks They are Done.The US dollar traded heavily last week, losing ground to all the G10 currencies, but the Swiss franc. The franc seemed to be dragged down by the use of it rather than the yen as a funding currency.

美联储预览：市场预测降息，但该行预计美联储将保持。联合信贷银行的经济学家预计，美联储下周将保持利率不变，这一立场与市场定价背道而驰，目前市场定价认为降息的可能性超过90%。该行认为，如果这是正确的，美元兑欧元和英镑在最近全线回落后可能会重新站稳脚跟。

Federal Reserve Preview: Markets Price a cut, but This Bank Expects the FED to Hold.Economists at UniCredit expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold next week, a stance that runs against market pricing, which now assigns more than a 90 percent chance of a cut. The bank argues that if it is right, the US Dollar could regain ground against the Euro and Pound Sterling after its recent retreat across the.

荷兰合作银行预测2026年英镑兑欧元汇率将跌至1.124。荷兰合作银行表示，英镑走强并不令人信服，因为欧元/英镑仍有望走高。英镑兑欧元汇率周五收于1.1455，为几周来的最高水平，此前有线电视出现了一个多月来最大的单日涨幅。

Rabobank Predicts Pound Sterling to Drift Lower to 1.124 Against the Euro in 2026.Rabobank says pound strength unconvincing as EUR/GBP still expected to grind higher. The GBP to EUR exchange rate closed Friday at 1.1455, its strongest level in several weeks, after cable staged its biggest daily rise in over a month.