随着全球供应继续远远超过需求，大米期货暴跌至每百斤12.30美元以下，达到2021年初以来的最低水平。印度重返出口市场引发了大量价格有竞争力的长粒碎米，削弱了东南亚竞争对手的竞争力，并加剧了对全球基准的压力。与此同时，预计2025/26年全球大米产量将达到创纪录的5.38亿吨，使总供应量接近7.43亿吨，并使国际库存居高不下。在美国，美国农业部的数据显示，由于国内使用不温不火，出口仅小幅反弹，受大量结转的限制，期末库存上升至4750万英担的五年峰值。7月份的短暂复苏未能改变供应过剩的局面，由于需求仍然疲软，特别是在价格敏感的非洲和亚洲市场，期货仍牢牢地锚定在下降趋势中。
Rice futures plunged below $12.30 per hundredweight, hitting their lowest level since early 2021, as global supply continues to far outpace demand. India’s return to export markets unleashed a flood of competitively priced long-grain broken rice, undercutting Southeast Asian rivals and intensifying pressure on global benchmarks. At the same time, global rice production for 2025/26 is projected at a record 538 million tons, pushing total supply to nearly 743 million and keeping international inventories burdensomely high. In the US, USDA data show ending stocks rising to a five-year peak of 47.5 million cwt amid tepid domestic use and only a modest export rebound, constrained by ample carryover. July’s brief recovery failed to alter the oversupplied landscape, and with demand still sluggish, particularly across price-sensitive African and Asian markets, futures remain firmly anchored in a downward trend.
