墨西哥比索兑美元汇率跌至20.5,接近自2025年初以来反复测试的三年低点20.85,因为不断升级的全球贸易紧张局势和持续的国内通胀压力影响了其吸引力。虽然墨西哥最初受益于特朗普总统10%的全面进口关税豁免,这增加了人们对近岸和安全进入美国市场的希望,但投资者的乐观情绪已经消退。在中国对美国商品征收34%的报复性关税后,对经济衰退的担忧急剧加深,加剧了人们对全球贸易崩溃和外部需求疲软的担忧。与此同时,围绕墨西哥可能受到美国汽车关税影响的持续不确定性继续给前景蒙上阴影。在国内,通货膨胀率仍然高得令人不安,使Banxico的政策轨迹复杂化,因为它平衡了维持有吸引力的利率差的需要与支持经济活动放缓的日益紧迫性。
The Mexican peso weakened toward 20.5 per USD, nearing the three-year low of 20.85 that has been repeatedly tested since early 2025, as escalating global trade tensions and persistent domestic inflation pressures weigh on its appeal. While Mexico initially benefited from its exemption to President Trump’s sweeping 10% import tariffs—boosting hopes for nearshoring and secure access to the U.S. market—investor optimism has since faded. Recession fears have deepened sharply following China’s retaliatory move to impose a 34% tariff on U.S. goods, amplifying concerns over collapsing global trade and weaker external demand. At the same time, lingering uncertainty around Mexico’s potential exposure to U.S. auto tariffs continues to cloud the outlook. Domestically, inflation remains uncomfortably high, complicating Banxico’s policy trajectory as it balances the need to maintain an attractive interest rate differential with the growing urgency to support slowing economic activity.