由于贸易中断、市场波动和供需动态变化，油菜籽期货价格跌至每吨650加元，接近8月19日的4月初低点646加元。8月14日，中国对加拿大油菜籽进口征收75.8%的临时反倾销税，有效地阻止了其市场准入，2024年加拿大油菜籽出口额接近50亿加元。此举导致加拿大油菜籽期货大幅下跌，达到四个月低点。此外，加元走强削弱了国内现金出价，进一步压低了价格。尽管全球产量预测，如欧盟预计油菜籽产量将增长11%，表明潜在的供应增长，但贸易壁垒和货币波动的直接影响掩盖了这些因素，导致菜籽油价格前景看跌。
Canola futures eased toward CAD 650 per tonne, approaching their early-April low of 646 seen August 19th, amid trade disruptions, market volatility, and shifting supply-demand dynamics. On August 14th, China imposed a provisional anti-dumping duty of 75.8% on Canadian canola imports, effectively blocking access to its market, which accounted for nearly C$5 billion in exports in 2024. This move has led to a significant drop in Canadian canola futures, reaching a four-month low. Additionally, the Canadian dollar's strength has weakened domestic cash bids, further pressuring prices. While global production forecasts, such as the EU's anticipated 11% increase in rapeseed output, suggest potential supply growth, the immediate impact of trade barriers and currency fluctuations has overshadowed these factors, leading to a bearish outlook for canola oil prices.
