FILUSD (FILUSD) 加自选

德意志银行警告称，贸易紧张局势威胁到美元的融资优势，预计将出现轮换。德意志银行预计，美国经济势头将放缓至今年下半年，尽管经济衰退的可能性仍然不大。尽管如此，该行警告称，不断加剧的贸易紧张局势和政策的不可预测性正开始破坏美国长期享有的结构性融资优势。

Deutsche Bank warns trade tensions threaten USD's funding edge, sees rotation out.Deutsche Bank expects U.S. economic momentum to slow into the second half of the year, though a recession remains unlikely. Still, the bank cautions that rising trade tensions and policy unpredictability are starting to undermine the structural funding advantage the U.S. has long enjoyed.

新西兰总理卢克森将访问中国和欧盟进行贸易和安全会谈。新西兰总理克里斯托弗·卢克森将于本月晚些时候访问中国和欧洲，就贸易、投资和地区安全问题举行高级别会谈。这将是他作为总理首次正式访问中国。

New Zealand PM Luxon to visit China and EU for trade and security talks.New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will travel to China and Europe later this month for high-level talks focused on trade, investment, and regional security. It will mark his first official visit to China as prime minister.

摩根大通“估计油价可能飙升至120-130美元/桶”（伊朗最坏情况）。摩根大通指出，目前布伦特原油价格徘徊在69美元附近，其中已经包括比其估计的公允价值66美元高出约4美元的地缘政治风险溢价。最坏的情况，如霍尔木兹海峡关闭或重大报复性袭击，可能会严重扰乱供应，特别是如果伊朗每天210万桶的出口受到影响。

JP Morgan "estimate oil prices could surge to the $120-130/bbl" (Iran worst-case scenario).JPMorgan noted that current oil prices, hovering near $69 for Brent, already include a geopolitical risk premium of about $4 above their estimated fair value of $66. A worst-case scenario, such as a closure of the Strait of Hormuz or major retaliatory attacks, could significantly disrupt supply, particularly if Iran's 2.1 million barrels per day in exports are impacted.

澳元/日元价格预测：在连续两天下跌后稳定在93.69附近。澳元/日元连续第二天下跌，仍低于94.00，周四下跌0.25%。在撰写本文时，交叉货币对的交易价格为93.66，几乎没有变化。

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Steadies near 93.69 after two-day slide.AUD/JPY retreated for the second consecutive day, remained below the 94.00 figure, and printed losses of 0.25% on Thursday. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 93.66, virtually unchanged.