摩根大通“估计油价可能飙升至120-130美元/桶”(伊朗最坏情况)。摩根大通指出,目前布伦特原油价格徘徊在69美元附近,其中已经包括比其估计的公允价值66美元高出约4美元的地缘政治风险溢价。最坏的情况,如霍尔木兹海峡关闭或重大报复性袭击,可能会严重扰乱供应,特别是如果伊朗每天210万桶的出口受到影响。
JP Morgan "estimate oil prices could surge to the $120-130/bbl" (Iran worst-case scenario).JPMorgan noted that current oil prices, hovering near $69 for Brent, already include a geopolitical risk premium of about $4 above their estimated fair value of $66. A worst-case scenario, such as a closure of the Strait of Hormuz or major retaliatory attacks, could significantly disrupt supply, particularly if Iran's 2.1 million barrels per day in exports are impacted.