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早盘出价：市场对鲍威尔不断变化的命运保持冷静。Rae Wee展望欧洲和全球市场的未来

Morning Bid: Markets stoic over Powell's shifting fate.A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee

周四，由于美国国债收益率上升推动美元重新走强，韩元兑美元汇率跌至近两个月来的最低水平，约为1390韩元兑1美元。然而，由于有报道称特朗普总统可能会解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，美联储的独立性仍存在不确定性。尽管特朗普后来淡化了这种可能性，但这一事件突显了投资者对央行信誉的敏感性。在最新的贸易新闻中，特朗普总统计划向150多个较小的国家发出统一的关税信函，设定一个基准税率，而欧盟、日本和韩国等主要经济体已经收到了单独的通知。首尔目前正努力在8月1日前与华盛顿敲定一项框架协议，以避免美国对汽车、钢铁和机械等韩国主要出口产品征收迫在眉睫的关税。贸易部长杨汉求表示，谈判取得了“相当大的进展”，特别是在产业合作和潜在的关税豁免领域。

The South Korean won fell to around 1,390 per dollar on Thursday, its weakest level in nearly two months, amid renewed US dollar strength driven by rising US Treasury yields. However, uncertainty lingered over the Federal Reserve’s independence amid reports that President Trump might fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Although Trump later downplayed the possibility, the episode underscored investor sensitivity to central bank credibility. In the latest trade news, President Trump plans to send a uniform tariff letter to over 150 smaller countries, setting a baseline rate, while major economies like the EU, Japan, and South Korea have already received individual notices. Seoul is currently working to finalize a framework deal with Washington by August 1 to avoid looming US tariffs on key Korean exports such as autos, steel, and machinery. Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo said talks have made “considerable progress,” particularly in areas of industrial cooperation and potential tariff exemptions.

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China’s cabinet on Wednesday pledged to contain "irrational" competition in the electric vehicle (EV) sector, vowing stronger cost investigations and price monitoring, according to state broadcaster CCTV. Chaired by Premier Li Qiang, the meeting addressed concerns over a two-year price war in the world's largest auto market. The cabinet promised short- and long-term steps to foster high-quality growth, though details were limited. Automakers were urged to honor supplier payment terms, with support for innovation and quality upgrades. Regulators warn that cutthroat pricing could threaten the industry’s sustainability. Separately, the cabinet unveiled plans to spur domestic consumption by easing restrictions on household spending and improving its consumer goods trade-in program.

周四，受美元反弹的压力，新西兰元跌至0.592美元左右，接近三周多来的最低水平。在唐纳德·特朗普总统否认有关他可能很快解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的报道后，美元反弹，缓解了市场紧张局势。与此同时，投资者现在正在等待当天晚些时候公布的美国零售销售数据，这可能会进一步了解美国经济的健康状况和美联储的利率轨迹。在国内，新西兰储备银行本月早些时候暂停了降息周期，选择等待全面的通胀报告。然而，它表明，由于经济中的闲置产能，进一步的货币宽松政策仍有可能。经济新闻方面，新西兰6月份的年度食品通胀率从5月份的4.4%升至4.6%，为2023年12月以来的最高水平。

The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.592 on Thursday, remaining near its lowest level in more than three weeks, pressured by a rebound in the US dollar. The greenback recovered after President Donald Trump denied the reports suggesting he was likely to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell soon, easing market tensions. Meanwhile, investors now await the US retail sales data due later in the day, which could offer further insight into the health of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. Domestically, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand paused its rate-cutting cycle earlier this month, opting to wait for the full inflation report. However, it signaled that further monetary easing remains likely due to the amount of spare capacity in the economy. In economic news, New Zealand’s annual food inflation rose to 4.6% in June from 4.4% in May, marking the highest level since December 2023.