现货黄金 (Gold) 加自选

周四，澳元贬值至0.649美元以上，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，因为美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的新关税威胁导致风险情绪恶化。周三，他宣布计划在未来一到两周内向主要贸易伙伴发出正式信函，概述旨在迫使各国谈判贸易协议的单方面关税。澳大利亚储备银行进一步降息的预期上升，给澳元带来了更大的压力。市场预计，在7月8日的会议上，降息25个基点至3.60%的可能性为80%，预计到年底将进一步降至3.10%。然而，西太平洋银行首席经济学家Luci Ellis预计，澳大利亚储备银行将在7月份维持利率不变，随后在8月和11月降息25个基点，明年2月和5月还会再降息两次。如果通胀和劳动力市场状况减弱，提前降息是可能的，这可能会使现金利率降至2.85%。

The Australian dollar depreciated past $0.649 on Thursday, extending its decline from the previous session as risk sentiment soured amid fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump. On Wednesday, he announced plans to dispatch official letters to major trading partners within the next one to two weeks, outlining unilateral tariffs aimed at compelling countries to negotiate trade deals. Adding pressure on the Aussie dollar were rising expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Markets price in an 80% chance of a 25 bps cut to 3.60% at the July 8 meeting, with further reductions to 3.10% expected by year-end. However, Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis expects the RBA to hold rates in July, followed by quarter-point cuts in August and November, with two additional reductions in February and May next year. Earlier rate cuts are possible if inflation and labour market conditions weaken, potentially bringing the cash rate down to 2.85%.

周四，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率降至4.22%，这是连续第四天下跌，也是一周来的最低水平，因为人们对澳大利亚储备银行和美联储放松货币政策的预期越来越高。在国内，市场暗示澳大利亚储备银行在7月会议上将现金利率下调25个基点至3.60%的可能性约为80%，预计到年底将进一步放宽至3.10%。这一温和的转变是在一系列疲软的经济数据之后发生的，包括上周第一季度GDP数据低于预期，这表明经济疲软。在美国，5月份低于预期的CPI报告支持了人们对美联储最早可能在9月恢复降息的押注，市场目前预计到年底将降息50个基点。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to 4.22% on Thursday, marking its fourth consecutive day of declines and its lowest level in a week, amid growing expectations of monetary policy easing by both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the US Federal Reserve. Domestically, markets are implying around an 80% probability that the RBA will cut its cash rate by 25bps to 3.60% at its July meeting, with expectations of further easing to 3.10% by the end of the year. This dovish shift follows a string of weak economic data, including last week’s softer-than-expected Q1 GDP figures, which pointed to a sluggish economy. In the US, a cooler-than-expected CPI report for May bolstered bets that the Fed could resume cutting rates as early as September, with markets now pricing in a total of 50bps in cuts by year-end.

澳大利亚消费者通胀预期已跃升至5%。澳元在盘中表现不佳。..欧元、英镑、日元、瑞士法郎兑美元均走高。

Australian consumer inflation expectations have jumped to 5%.AUD has been a sad underperformer on the session ... EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF are all higher against the USD.

澳大利亚储备银行不会急于行动，但明年将削减更多。我们继续预计澳大利亚储备银行将在7月份持币，并在8月和11月降息。较低的通胀前景使得2026年初可能会进一步降息两次。

RBA Won't Rush, But Will Cut More Next Year.We continue to expect RBA to hold in July and cut in August and November. A lower inflation outlook now makes two further cuts in early 2026 likely.