现货黄金 (Gold) 加自选

中国GDP超过预期，澳元暴跌。周五，中国传出好消息，GDP强于预期。第四季度经济同比增长5.4%，高于第三季度的4.6%，也高于市场预期的5.0%。

China's GDP Beats Forecast, Aussie Shrugs.There was good news out of China on Friday, highlighted by GDP which was stronger than expected. The economy expanded by 5.4% y/y in the fourth quarter, up from 4.6% in Q3 and above the market estimate of 5.0%.

欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元继续反弹。周五凌晨，美元有点吵，因为交易员似乎不愿意在周末之前以这种或那种方式过度暴露。因此，我怀疑这是一个将继续出现短期波动的市场。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Bounce Around.In the early hours of Friday, the US dollar has been a bit noisy, as it looks like traders aren't willing to get overly exposed one way or the other ahead of the weekend. With this, I suspect this is a market that will continue to see choppy short-term behavior.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率降至4.54%左右，追随美国债券收益率的下降，此前美国最近的经济数据显示，美联储今年可能会继续放松货币政策。与此同时，尽管最新数据显示就业市场强劲，但国内投资者仍暗示澳大利亚储备银行在2月份的会议上降息的可能性约为70%。12月，经济增加了56300个工作岗位，远远超过了预期的15000个和上个月的28200个。失业率从11月的3.9%微升至4%，与预测相符。总体而言，尽管高利率带来了挑战，但这些数据突显了劳动力市场的弹性。即将发布的季度通胀报告和零售销售数据都将在澳大利亚储备银行做出决定之前发布，这将为经济健康状况提供进一步的见解，对投资者评估央行的下一步政策举措至关重要。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 4.54%, tracking a decline in U.S. bond yields after recent U.S. economic data suggested that the Federal Reserve might continue easing monetary policy this year. Meanwhile, domestic investors are still implying around a 70% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates at its February meeting, despite latest data pointing to a strong job market. In December, the economy added a remarkable 56,300 jobs, far exceeding the expected 15,000 and the previous month’s figure of 28,200. The unemployment rate edged up to 4% from November’s 3.9%, in line with forecasts. Overall, the data highlighted the labor market’s resilience, despite challenges posed by high interest rates. The upcoming quarterly inflation report and retail sales data, both set to be released before the RBA's decision, will offer further insights into the health of the economy and be crucial for investors in assessing the central bank’s next policy move.

周五，澳元稳定在0.621美元左右，有望实现七周来的首次周涨幅，主要受美元回落的支撑。美国通胀降温刺激了人们对美联储今年进一步降息的预期。此外，中国第四季度经济增长强于预期，改善了澳大利亚最大贸易伙伴的前景。在国内，投资者在等待最新通胀数据的同时，继续评估澳大利亚储备银行在公布强劲就业数据后的货币政策立场。市场目前预计，澳大利亚储备银行下个月将把4.35%的现金利率下调25个基点的可能性为70%，4月份的进一步降息已经完全消化了这一可能性。

The Australian dollar held steady around $0.621 on Friday, on track for its first weekly gain in seven, supported mainly by a retreat in the US dollar. Cooling US inflation has spurred expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Additionally, stronger-than-expected economic growth in China during the fourth quarter has improved the outlook for Australia’s largest trading partner. Domestically, investors continued to assess the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy stance following the release of robust employment figures, while awaiting the latest inflation data. Markets are currently pricing in a 70% probability that the RBA will cut its 4.35% cash rate by 25 basis points next month, with an additional rate cut in April already fully priced in.