现货黄金 (Gold) 加自选

澳元/日元徘徊在94.50附近，因投资者怀疑日本央行的加息计划。周三，在亚洲交易时段，澳元/日元保持四天涨势，接近94.50。随着投资者开始怀疑日本央行（BoJ）今年是否会再次加息，交叉显示出实力。

AUD/JPY clings to gains near 94.50 as investors doubt BoJ's rate hike plans.The AUD/JPY pair holds onto four-day rally to near 94.50 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The cross exhibits strength as investors start doubting over whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again this year.

周三，澳元跌至0.650美元左右，结束了连续两个交易日的上涨，受到澳大利亚储备银行进一步降息的预期日益增长的压力。市场目前预计，7月份降息25个基点的可能性为97%，期货意味着到年底将总共降息75个基点，降至3.1%。这种情绪是在一系列疲软的经济数据之后出现的，包括第一季度GDP仅增长0.2%、消费者支出疲软和商业投资下降，这引发了人们对澳大利亚储备银行可能等待太久才采取行动的担忧。在今天晚些时候公布的美国关键通胀数据之前，美元走强，这可能会影响美联储的利率前景，这增加了压力。尽管如此，澳元仍接近年初至今的峰值，这得益于对美中贸易谈判的乐观情绪，该谈判继续支持风险情绪，并支撑着中国的代理货币。尽管细节尚未披露，但讨论达成了一项初步协议，以落实日内瓦共识，旨在缓解贸易紧张局势。

The Australian dollar slipped to around $0.650 on Wednesday, ending two consecutive sessions of gains, pressured by growing expectations of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Markets are now pricing in a 97% chance of a 25bps cut in July, with futures implying a total of 75bps of easing to 3.1% by the end of the year. This sentiment follows a string of soft economic data, including just 0.2% GDP growth in Q1, weak consumer spending, and falling business investment—raising concerns the RBA may have waited too long to act. Adding pressure, the US dollar firmed ahead of key US inflation data due later today, which could influence the Fed’s rate outlook. Still, the Aussie remains near its YTD peak, supported by optimism over US–China trade talks, which continue to support risk sentiment and underpin the China-proxy currency. Though details remain undisclosed, the discussions reached a preliminary deal to implement their Geneva consensus, aiming to ease trade tensions.

随着美中对话的改善，美元升值，澳元下跌。周三，澳元兑美元下跌，收复了最近的涨幅。然而，随着美国和中国之间贸易紧张局势的缓解，澳元/美元可能会上涨。

Australian Dollar loses ground as US Dollar advances amid improving US-China dialogue.The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, retracing its recent gains. However, the AUD/USD pair may gain ground amid easing trade tensions between the United States (US) and China.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周三上涨0.4%，至8620点左右，创下历史新高，因市场对美中贸易谈判持乐观态度，并希望澳大利亚储备银行进一步降息。周二，美国和中国官员在伦敦的会谈延长到第二天，达成了一项初步协议，以落实他们早些时候在日内瓦达成的共识。尽管细节尚未披露，但美国谈判代表“绝对希望”该框架能够解决稀土贸易问题，双方在实施之前都会寻求领导人的批准。最近的经济信号表明，澳大利亚储备银行正在为进一步降息做准备，市场目前预计7月份降息25个基点的可能性为97%，到年底将降至3.1%左右。在企业方面，金融股领涨，联邦银行（0.4%）创下历史新高，国民银行（0.5%）创下四个月新高。表现最好的还包括必和必拓集团（2%）和Fortescue（1.8%）等矿业和能源股。

The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.4% to around 8,620 on Wednesday, hitting a fresh record high amid optimism over US–China trade talks and hopes of further RBA rate cuts. Talks between officials from US and China extended into a second day in London on Tuesday, resulting in a preliminary deal to implement their earlier Geneva consensus. Though details remain undisclosed, US negotiators “absolutely expect” the framework to resolve rare earth trade issues, with both sides seeking leaders’ approval before moving to implementation. Adding momentum, recent economic signals suggest the Reserve Bank of Australia is gearing up for further rate cuts, with markets now pricing in a 97% chance of a 25bps cut in July and a total reduction to around 3.1% by year-end. On the corporate front, financials led the charge, with Commonwealth Bank (0.4%) hitting a new all-time high and NAB (0.5%) a four-month high. Top performers also included mining and energy stocks such as BHP Group (2%) and Fortescue (1.8%).