铁矿62fe (IronOre62fe) 加自选

周一，Ibovespa指数微涨至138025点，因对全球降息和国内通胀预测疲软的押注抵消了政治和财政风险。鲍威尔的Jackson Hole言论提高了美联储9月降息的可能性，压缩了当地远期利率并放宽了股票贴现。与此同时，央行焦点调查将2025年IPCA预期下调至4.86%，加强了Selic从15%下调的前景，并支持向利率敏感行业的轮换。这些支持受到了美国未解决的关税威胁的制约，这些威胁给大宗商品和物流链带来了压力，也受到了法律和政治头条的制约，引发了对主要银行和国有企业的治理担忧。随着IPCA-15和关键全球数据的公布，投资者保持谨慎。WEG和巴西国家电力公司分别上涨0.9%和1.8%，而巴西银行和巴西航空工业公司分别下跌1.9%和2.2%。

The Ibovespa closed slightly higher at 138,025 on Monday as bets on global rate cuts and softer domestic inflation projections offset political and fiscal risks. Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks lifted the probability of a September Fed cut, compressing local forward rates and easing equity discounting. At the same time the Central Bank Focus survey trimmed 2025 IPCA expectations to 4.86%, reinforcing prospects of Selic cuts from 15% and supporting rotation into rate-sensitive sectors. These supports were checked by unresolved US tariff threats pressuring commodity and logistics chains and by legal and political headlines raising governance concerns for major banks and state-linked firms. With IPCA-15 and key global data ahead, investors stayed cautious. WEG and Eletrobras rose 0.9% and 1.8%, while Banco do Brasil and Embraer fell 1.9% and 2.2%.

澳元保持坚挺，市场关注澳大利亚储备银行会议纪要和通胀数据。周一，澳元（AUD）兑美元（USD）保持坚挺，澳元/美元徘徊在0.6500附近。尽管美元在周五大幅下跌后小幅反弹并趋于稳定，但该货币对仍保持弹性。

Australian Dollar holds firm as markets eye RBA Minutes and inflation data.The Australian Dollar (AUD) is holding firm against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with AUD/USD hovering close to the 0.6500 mark. The pair remains resilient despite a modest rebound in the Greenback, which is stabilizing after a sharp drop on Friday.

欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——周一美元小幅回升。周一凌晨，美元正试图小幅回升，因为市场仍在考虑美联储，以及他们将在接下来的几次会议上做什么。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Recovers Slightly on Monday.The US dollar is trying to recover a bit in the early hours of Monday, as the market continues to think about the Federal Reserve, and what it is that they are going to be doing in the next few meetings.

周一，Ibovespa指数上涨0.4%，收于138500点以上，追随全球涨势，因投资者对美国再次降息的预期，而国内关注点转向政府活动。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）的鸽派基调提振了人们对9月降息的押注，期货现在定价为84%的机会加息25个基点，到2026年中期将加息整整一个百分点，使利率达到3.25-3.5%。在巴西，卢拉总统将与副总统Geraldo Alckmin和财政部长Fernando Haddad一起在Planalto宫推出新的工业4.0信贷额度。Alckmin还将关闭巴西-尼日利亚商业论坛，而农业发展部长Paulo Teixeira将为受美国关税打击的公司提出公共食品采购的新规定。在企业方面，银行股上涨（Itaú上涨0.4%，Bradesco上涨2.9%），巴西国家石油公司上涨0.2%，淡水河谷上涨0.8%，WEG上涨4.4%。

The Ibovespa rose 0.4% to trade above 138,500 on Monday, tracking global gains as investors priced in renewed US rate cuts while domestic focus shifted to government events. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole boosted bets on a September cut, with futures now pricing an 84% chance of a 25bps move and a full percentage point of easing by mid-2026, bringing rates to 3.25–3.5%. In Brazil, President Lula will unveil a new Industry 4.0 credit line at the Planalto Palace alongside Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad. Alckmin will also close the Brazil–Nigeria Business Forum, while Agrarian Development Minister Paulo Teixeira presents new rules for public food purchases to aid firms hit by US tariffs. On the corporate front, banks gained (Itaú +0.4%, Bradesco +2.9%), along with Petrobras (+0.2%), Vale (+0.8%), and WEG (+4.4%).