铁矿62fe (IronOre62fe) 加自选

Ibovespa周一下跌1.3%，收于139490点，打破了特朗普总统周末宣布的最高纪录，威胁对“反美”金砖国家征收全面关税，并从8月起对所有日本和韩国进口商品征收25%的关税？1--再次引发了人们对全球贸易大火的担忧，这场大火可能会重创巴西的大宗商品巨头，巴西国家石油公司下跌0.5%，淡水河谷下跌1.6%，其他矿商也纷纷效仿。在国内，6月份的生产者价格指数暴跌1.29%，为近两年来的最大跌幅，而工业产出连续第二个月收缩，突显出仍高达15%的Selic利率对制造业的拖累。国会和最高法院尚未解决的IOF税收僵局，加上卢拉政府没有采取新的财政或基础设施举措，在全球风险厌恶情绪激增之际，加深了投资者的谨慎。

The Ibovespa tumbled 1.3% on Monday to finish at 139,490, relinquishing its recent record high as President Trump’s weekend declaration—threatening blanket tariffs on “anti-American” BRICS nations and 25% duties on all Japanese and Korean imports from August?1—reignited fears of a global trade conflagration that could hammer Brazil’s commodity giants, with Petrobras sliding 0.5%, Vale off 1.6% and other miners following suit. Domestically, June’s producer-price index plunged 1.29%, its steepest decline in nearly two years, while industrial output contracted for a second consecutive month, highlighting the drag of a still-elevated 15% Selic rate on manufacturing. Adding to the malaise, the unresolved IOF-tax standoff in Congress and before the Supreme Court, coupled with the absence of new fiscal or infrastructure initiatives from Lula’s government, deepened investor caution just as global risk aversion surged.

2025年6月，巴西新车销量下降5.7%，至21.29万辆，扭转了5月份8.1%的增长。尽管月度销量有所下降，但今年迄今的销量仍比2024年同期高出4.8%。各类别的销售额均有所下降：汽车（-5%）、轻型商用车（-7.9%）、卡车（-7%）和公共汽车（-1%）。出口也有所下降，从5月份下降1.7%，至50700台。产量反映了这一趋势，环比下降6.5%，至20万辆，尽管与2024年6月相比，今年迄今仍增长7.8%。与此同时，该行业的就业人数有所增长，从2024年6月的10.4万人增加到10.89万多名工人。

New vehicle sales in Brazil fell by 5.7% in June 2025 to 212.9 thousand units, reversing the 8.1% growth recorded in May. Despite the monthly drop, year-to-date sales remained 4.8% higher than in the same period of 2024. Sales declined across categories: automobiles (-5%), light commercial vehicles (-7.9%), trucks (-7%), and buses (-1%). Exports also dipped, down 1.7% from May to 50.7 thousand units. Production mirrored the trend, falling 6.5% month-on-month to 200.8 thousand vehicles, though it still marked a 7.8% year-to-date increase over June 2024. Meanwhile, employment in the sector grew, rising from 104 thousand in June 2024 to over 108.9 thousand workers.

巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率跌破5.47，从7月3日的9个月高点5.41回落，因为特朗普总统将互惠关税最后期限推迟到8月1日，并威胁对金砖国家联盟国家征收额外关税，将寻求收益的资本吸引回发达市场，美元因此上涨。与此同时，巴西基石出口原油和铁矿石价格疲软，侵蚀了硬通货流入，而6月份贸易逆差的意外扩大和工业生产的意外收缩破坏了早期复苏的迹象。然而，央行维持15%的利率，以控制目前高于目标的通货膨胀，这使得进一步降息的空间很小，并巩固了巴西的利率优势，限制了雷亚尔的下行压力。

The Brazilian real slid past 5.47 per USD, giving back gains from its nine-month peak of 5.41 on July 3rd, as the US dollar has rallied on news that President Trump has pushed his reciprocal-tariff deadline out to August 1st, and threatened additional duties on BRICS-aligned nations, luring yield-seeking capital back to developed markets. At the same time, softening prices for Brazil’s cornerstone exports, crude oil and iron ore, have eroded hard-currency inflows, while a surprise widening of June’s trade deficit and an unexpected contraction in industrial production undermined earlier signs of a nascent recovery. However, the central bank’s 15% interest rate, maintained to rein in inflation now running above target, leaves scant room for further cuts and solidifies Brazil’s interest-rate edge, limiting downward pressure on the real.

2025年6月至5月，巴西的汽车产量下降了6.5%，至200764辆，而前一时期下降了5.9%。与2024年6月相比，产量下降了4.9%。产量下降反映了进口竞争加剧以及制造商对短期销售的谨慎态度。然而，今年迄今为止，产量增长了7.8%，达到123万台。与此同时，6月份出口总量为50700台，比上年增长75%。进口量达到38650台，同比增长0.9%。本月国内注册量下降5.7%，至212900套。

Vehicle production in Brazil fell by 6.5% to 200,764 units between June and May 2025 following a 5.9% drop in the previous period. Compared to June 2024, production fell by 4.9%. The drop in production reflects increased competition from imports and manufacturers' caution about short-term sales. Year-to-date however, production is up 7.8%, at 1.23 million units. Meanwhile, exports totaled 50,700 units in June, up 75% on the previous year. Imports reached 38,650 units, up 0.9% year-on-year. Domestic registrations fell by 5.7% in the month, to 212,900 units.