天然气 (Naturalgas) 加自选

美国股指期货周五下跌，与三大指数挂钩的合约下跌约1%，但在中东紧张局势升级的推动下，美国股市纷纷涌向安全资产，收复了早些时候的一些失地。以色列对伊朗发动了先发制人的打击，目标是核设施，并承诺继续行动，直到威胁被消除。航空股在盘前交易中大幅下跌，美国航空公司下跌4.1%，达美航空公司下跌4.6%，联合航空公司下跌4.9%。大型科技股也大多下跌，包括英伟达（-1.4%）、微软（-0.7%）、亚马逊（-1.8%）、Meta（-1.4%”）、Alphabet（-1.6%”）和特斯拉（-1.0%”）。另一方面，石油和国防类股上涨，包括埃克森美孚（+2.5%）、雪佛龙（+2.6%）、洛克希德·马丁（+3.2%）。尽管周五的基调是避险，但主要股指仍有望实现小幅周涨幅。标准普尔500指数上涨近0.7%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.7%，道琼斯指数上涨0.5%。

US stock futures were lower on Friday, with contracts tied to the three major indexes down about 1%, though they had pared some earlier losses amid a flight to safe-haven assets driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and pledging to continue operations until the threat is neutralized. Airline stocks were deep in the red during premarket trading, with American Airlines down 4.1%, Delta Air Lines falling 4.6%, and United Airlines off 4.9%. Megacap tech stocks were also mostly lower, including Nvidia (-1.4%), Microsoft (-0.7%), Amazon (-1.8%), Meta (-1.4%), Alphabet (-1.6%), and Tesla (-1.0%). On the other hand, oil and defense stocks were higher, including Exxon Mobil (+2.5%), Chevron (+2.6%), Lockheed Martin (+3.2%). Despite Friday’s risk-off tone, major indexes remain on track to post modest weekly gains. The S&P 500 is up nearly 0.7%, the Nasdaq has added 0.7%, and the Dow Jones has gained 0.5%.

美国10年期国债收益率在周五早些时候跌至4.31%的一个月低点后反弹至4.37%左右，投资者评估中东紧张局势不断升级。以色列对伊朗发动了先发制人的打击，目标是核设施，并誓言继续行动，直到感知到的威胁被消除。美国官员证实，美国没有参与此次袭击，特朗普总统敦促伊朗“现在就达成核协议，以免为时已晚”。与此同时，昨日出售的220亿美元30年期美国国债的需求强于预期，在持续的贸易不确定性、穆迪最近下调信用评级以及对政府支出和债务增加的担忧下，为债券市场提供了一些缓解。投资者也将注意力转向下周的美联储政策决定。预计美联储将保持联邦基金利率不变，但低于预期的CPI和PPI数据增强了人们对2025年两次降息的预期。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rebounded to around 4.37%, after dipping to a one-month low of 4.31% early on Friday, as investors assessed escalating tensions in the Middle East. Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and vowing to continue operations until the perceived threat is neutralized. US officials confirmed that the US had no involvement in the attack and President Trump urged Iran to "make a nuclear deal now before it is too late". Meanwhile, a $22 billion sale of 30-year Treasuries yesterday saw stronger-than-expected demand, offering some relief to the bond market amid ongoing trade uncertainty, a recent credit rating downgrade by Moody’s, and concerns about rising government spending and debt. Investors are also turning their attention to next week’s Fed policy decision. The Fed is expected to leave the feds fund rate unchanged but softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data have reinforced expectations for two rate cuts in 2025.

美元：地缘政治风险为美元短暂反弹开辟空间——ING。今天上午，以色列袭击伊朗核设施后，美元全面走强。这一特定地缘政治风险和外汇的主要传导渠道是石油价格，自以色列袭击以来，石油价格已上涨约8%。

USD: Geopolitical risk opens room for brief dollar rebound – ING.The dollar is stronger across the board this morning after Israel attacked Iran's nuclear facilities. The main transmission channel from this specific geopolitical risk and FX is the price of oil, which has rallied around 8% since the Israeli strike.

美元指数价格预测：展望仍看跌98.50以下。美元指数（DXY）是衡量美元（USD）对一篮子六种世界货币价值的指数，反弹至98.25附近，结束了周五欧洲早盘连续两天的下跌。中东地缘政治紧张局势加剧之际的避险情绪为美元提供了一定的支撑。

US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Outlook remains bearish below 98.50.The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, rebounds to near 98.25, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European session on Friday. The risk-off mood amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provides some support to the US Dollar (USD) broadly.