羊毛 (Wool) 加自选

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周三上涨0.7%，收于8737点，延续了前一交易日的涨幅，矿业和能源股领涨。在美国总统特朗普与日本达成贸易协议后，市场情绪得到提振，而美中贸易谈判在8月12日最后期限之前加强。在当地，最新数据显示，西太平洋银行领先指数在6月份放缓至0.03%，反映出由于大宗商品价格疲软和工作时间减少，势头减弱。现在的焦点转移到今天晚些时候公布的PMI数据，以了解7月份的商业状况。在企业新闻方面，能源股连续第五个交易日延续涨势，伍德赛德能源在第二季度强劲销售后上涨1.6%，至近一个月高点。交易员对路易斯安那液化天然气交易降低的风险反应积极。矿业板块也上涨1%，达到9个月高点，必和必拓（0.8%）、力拓（1%）和Fortescue（2.3%）均创下数月新高，这得益于中国宣布建造世界上最大的水电站大坝计划后，大宗商品需求的强劲。

The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7% to close at 8,737 on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session, led by mining and energy stocks. Market sentiment was lifted after US President Trump struck a trade deal with Japan, while US–China trade talks intensified ahead of the August 12 deadline. Locally, latest data showed Westpac Leading Index slowed to 0.03% in June, reflecting weaker momentum due to softer commodity prices and reduced work hours. Focus now shifts to PMI data due later today for insight into July’s business conditions. In corporate news, energy stocks extended gains for a fifth session, with Woodside Energy up 1.6% to a near 1-month high after strong Q2 sales. Traders reacted positively to its reduced risk from the Louisiana LNG deal. The mining sector also rose 1% to a 9-month high, with BHP (0.8%), Rio Tinto (1%), and Fortescue (2.3%) all hitting multi-month highs, supported by stronger commodity demand after China announced plans for the world’s largest hydropower dam.

新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周三下跌0.3%，收于12794点，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，尽管美国贸易谈判取得了积极进展。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周二宣布了与日本的一项贸易协议，根据该协议，东京将对向美国出口的商品降低15%的关税，此前与菲律宾达成的另一项协议规定，该国的出口商品将面临19%的关税。与此同时，国内投资者将密切关注新西兰储备银行首席经济学家Paul Conway周四的演讲，该演讲将讨论关税对经济的影响，并可能为8月份降息的可能性提供进一步线索。在企业方面，Infratil（-2.45%）、Spark NZ（-1.2%）、Fletcher Building（-1.6%）和Ryman Healthcare（-1.6%。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index dropped 0.3% to close at 12,794 on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session despite positive developments in US trade negotiations. President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced a trade agreement with Japan that will see Tokyo pay a reduced 15% tariff on exports to the US, following a separate deal with the Philippines under which the country’s exports will face a 19% tariff. Meanwhile, domestic investors will be closely watching a speech by Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway on Thursday, which will address the economic impact of tariffs and could offer further clues on the likelihood of a rate cut in August. On the corporate front, Infratil (-2.45%), Spark NZ (-1.2%), Fletcher Building (-1.6%), and Ryman Healthcare (-1.6%) were among the session’s biggest decliners.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率稳定在4.29%，停止了两天的下跌，因为投资者权衡了贸易发展的进展。唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布与日本达成贸易协议，包括对所有进口日本商品征收15%的关税，低于拟议的25%，这有助于缓解人们对贸易紧张局势加剧的担忧。在国内方面，澳大利亚储备银行7月份会议的纪要显示了7月份的谨慎立场，大多数成员认为，在四次会议上进行三次降息与其谨慎渐进的宽松战略不一致。相反，他们更愿意等待通胀持续放缓的更多证据。尽管如此，市场预计8月份降息的可能性接近100%，到年底，利率将触底至3.10%。投资者将密切关注澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克周四的演讲，以获取有关政策前景的进一步线索，以及PMI预览数据，以获取对经济势头的新见解。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held steady at 4.29%, halting a two-day decline as investors weighed progress on trade developments. President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Japan—including a 15% tariff on all imported Japanese goods, down from a proposed 25%—helping to allay fears of heightened trade tensions. On the domestic front, minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's July meeting showed a cautious stance in July, with most members arguing three cuts in four meetings was inconsistent with its strategy of easing in a cautious and gradual manner. Instead, they preferred to wait for more evidence of a sustained slowdown in inflation. Still, markets are pricing in nearly a 100% chance of a rate cut in August, with rates seen bottoming at 3.10% by year-end. Investors will be closely watching a speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock on Thursday for further clues on policy outlook, as well as flash PMI readings for fresh insights into economic momentum.

周三，在唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布与日本达成贸易协议，缓解关税战担忧后，新西兰元兑美元汇率突破0.60美元，连续第四个交易日上涨。该协议包括对所有进口的日本商品征收15%的关税，低于拟议的25%，日本将在美国投资5500亿美元。在国内，本周早些时候公布的数据显示，新西兰第二季度的年通胀率升至一年来的最高点，但略低于预期，而6月份的贸易顺差大幅收窄，强化了下个月降息的预期。市场目前预计，8月份降息25个基点的可能性为80%，尽管投资者认为宽松周期可能即将结束。交易员们将密切关注新西兰储备银行首席经济学家Paul Conway周四关于关税对经济影响的演讲，这可能会进一步了解8月份降息的可能性。

The New Zealand dollar strengthened past $0.60 on Wednesday, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains, after President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Japan, easing tariff war concerns. The agreement includes a 15% tariff on all imported Japanese goods, down from a proposed 25%, and Japan will invest $550 billion in the US. Domestically, data released earlier this week showed New Zealand's annual inflation rose to a one-year high in the second quarter but was slightly below forecasts, while the trade surplus narrowed sharply in June—reinforcing expectations of a rate cut next month. Markets now price in an 80% chance of a 25bps cut in August, though investors believe the easing cycle may be nearing its end. Traders will be closely watching RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway’s speech on the economic impact of tariffs on Thursday, which could offer further insight into the likelihood of an August rate cut.