橡胶 (Rubber) 加自选

在2025年10月的政策会议上，泰国央行将基准利率维持在1.5%不变，打破了市场对降至1.25%的预期，并保持在2023年2月以来的最低水平。目前预计2025年的总体通胀率为0%，2026年为0.5%，预计到2027年初将逐步恢复到央行1%-3%的目标区间。预计2025年和2026年的核心通胀率将稳定在0.9%。2025年9月，泰国消费者价格同比下降0.72%，标志着连续第六个月出现通货紧缩，仍远低于央行的目标区间。与此同时，泰国的国内生产总值预计在2025年和2026年分别增长2.2%和1.6%。2025年第二季度，该国经济同比增长2.8%，是2024年第二季以来最慢的增长速度。最后，货币政策委员会重申了其宽松立场，并表示准备根据不断变化的经济和通胀状况调整政策。

The Bank of Thailand kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.5% during its October 2025 policy meeting, defying market expectations of a cut to 1.25% and remaining at its lowest level since February 2023. Headline inflation is now forecast at 0% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, with a gradual return to the central bank’s 1%–3% target band anticipated by early 2027. The core inflation rate is expected to remain stable at 0.9% in both 2025 and 2026. Consumer prices in Thailand declined by 0.72% year-on-year in September 2025, marking the sixth consecutive month of deflation and remaining well below the central bank’s target range. Meanwhile, Thailand’s GDP is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. The country's economy expanded by 2.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, representing the slowest pace of growth since Q2 2024. Finally, the MPC reaffirmed its accommodative stance and signaled its readiness to adjust policy in response to evolving economic and inflation conditions.

日经225指数周三下跌0.45%，至47735点，从历史高点回落，因为投资者在最近的反弹后锁定了涨幅，这是由于对即将上任的首相高一（Sanae Takaichi）的新刺激措施的预期推动的，高一是“安倍经济学”政策的坚定支持者。低于预期的工资数据也抑制了日本央行加息的前景，8月份实际工资同比下降1.4%，标志着连续第八个月下降。与此同时，科技股反映了华尔街的下跌，此前甲骨文的大幅下跌重新引发了人们对人工智能交易可持续性的担忧，而美国政府长期停摆加剧了市场的谨慎。值得注意的下跌股包括软银集团（-2%）、迪斯科公司（-2.%）和东京电子（-2.8%）。

The Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.45% to 47,735 on Wednesday, pulling back from record highs as investors locked in gains after recent rallies fueled by expectations of fresh stimulus under incoming Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a staunch supporter of “Abenomics” policies. Weaker-than-expected wage data also curbed prospects for Bank of Japan rate hikes, with real wages down 1.4% in August from a year earlier, marking the eighth straight monthly decline. Meanwhile, technology shares mirrored losses on Wall Street after a sharp drop in Oracle reignited concerns about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence trade, while the prolonged US government shutdown added to market caution. Notable decliners included SoftBank Group (-2%), Disco Corp (-2%), and Tokyo Electron (-2.8%).

美元/日元触及2月高点，因鸽派政策预期拖累日元。美元/日元对已反弹至2月以来的最高水平，交易在152.45左右。日元本周贬值超过3%，疲软的工资数据公布后，抛售压力加剧。

USD/JPY Hits February High as Dovish Policy Expectations Weigh on Yen.The USD/JPY pair has rallied to its highest level since February, trading around 152.45. The Japanese yen has depreciated by over 3% this week, with selling pressure intensifying following the release of soft wage data.

日本服务业指数从上个月的46.7升至2025年9月的47.1，这是自1月以来的最高读数，也是连续第五个月上涨，超过了市场预期的47.0。家庭预算趋势指数有所改善，尽管食品和饮料产量疲软，但住房相关和其他行业仍有所增长。与此同时，受制造业下滑的影响，企业趋势指数有所软化，尽管就业有所加强。与此同时，9月份经济前景指数从之前的47.5升至48.5，为8个月来的最高点，反映出尽管成本压力持续存在和美国贸易政策的影响，但经济仍有进一步复苏的迹象。

Japan’s service sector index increase to 47.1 in September 2025 from 46.7 in the previous month, marking the highest reading since January and the fifth straight monthly increase and topping market expectations of 47.0. The household budget trend index improved, driven by gains in housing-related and other sectors despite weaker food and beverage output. Meanwhile, the corporate trend index softened, weighed by a decline in manufacturing, though employment strengthened. Meanwhile, the economic outlook index rose to an eight-month high of 48.5 in September from the prior 47.5, reflecting signs of further economic recovery despite persistent cost pressures and the impact of U.S. trade policy.