美国可可 (Cocoa) 加自选

Ibovespa扭转早盘跌幅，收于140110点，创下历史新高，上涨0.3%，此前投资者聚焦于巴西特有的基本面，盖过了早些时候的全球恐慌。令人失望的美国关税消息给出口商带来了压力，但3月份IBC Br指数上涨0.8%，高于预期，将第一季度活动提高到1.3%，同时12个月IPCA预测小幅收窄至4.91%（仍高于4.50%的上限），这加强了Selic稳定在14.75%的理由，提振了金融业的收益。在股市方面，JBS、BRF和Marfrig都出现了反弹，由于第一季度业绩强劲和牛肉出口前景改善，各上涨3%至4.4%，而Gol在确认其第11章退出计划后飙升12.1%，为小盘股注入了活力。包括ItaúUnibanco和Banco do Brasil在内的主要银行也因持续的净息差前景而上涨。

The Ibovespa reversed early-session losses to close 0.3% higher at a fresh record of 140,110, after investors homed in on Brazil-specific fundamentals that eclipsed earlier global jitters. Disappointing US tariff news had weighed on exporters, but a stronger-than-expected 0.8% jump in March’s IBC-Br index, raising first-quarter activity to 1.3%, alongside a modest narrowing of the 12-month IPCA forecast to 4.91% (still above the 4.50% ceiling) reinforced the case for Selic stability at 14.75%, bolstering financial-sector earnings. In equities, JBS, BRF, and Marfrig staged comebacks, each rallying between 3% and 4.4% on robust Q1 results and improved beef-export prospects, while Gol’s 12.1% surge on confirmation of its Chapter 11 exit plan energized small caps. Major banks—including Itaú Unibanco and Banco do Brasil—also advanced on sustained net-interest-margin outlooks.

2025年4月，阿根廷的贸易顺差收窄至2.04亿美元，低于去年同期修订后的18.2亿美元，远低于市场预期的10亿美元。进口额同比激增37.3%，达到64.6亿美元，主要原因是资本货物（73.4%）、中间产品（9.6%）、燃料和润滑油（15.3%）、资本货物零部件（24.9%）、消费品（77.7%）和乘用车（204.5%）的出货量大幅增加。与此同时，出口小幅增长2.3%，达到66.6亿美元，其中初级产品（10.8%）和制成品（5.5%）的销售额被燃料和能源销售额下降（-10.0%）部分抵消。2025年前三个月，贸易顺差从2024年同期的62.08亿美元降至12.65亿美元。

Argentina's trade surplus narrowed to USD 204 million in April 2025, down from a revised USD 1.82 billion in the same month of the previous year, and falling drastically short of market expectations of USD 1,000 million. Imports surged by 37.3% year-on-year to USD 6.46 billion, driven by significant increases in shipments of capital goods (73.4%), intermediate goods (9.6%), fuels and lubricants (15.3%), parts and accessories for capital goods (24.9%), consumer goods (77.7%), and passenger motor vehicles (204.5%). Meanwhile, exports edged 2.3% higher to USD 6.66 billion, amid sales of primary products (10.8%), and manufactured products (5.5%), being partially offset by falling sales of fuels and energy (-10.0%). For the first three months of 2025, the trade surplus fell to USD 1.265 billion, down from USD 6.208 billion in the same period of 2024.

4月份阿根廷贸易差额低于预期（10亿美元）：实际（2.04亿美元）。4月份阿根廷贸易差额低于预期（10亿美元）：实际（2.04亿美元）

Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) below expectations ($1000M) in April: Actual ($204M).Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) below expectations ($1000M) in April: Actual ($204M)

周二，Ibovespa指数下跌约0.3%，跌至139500点以下，从历史高点回落，地缘政治紧张局势和国内政策风险打压市场情绪。对美国总统特朗普未能兑现4月2日承诺的关税下调的失望，引发了人们对巴西主要出口商长期贸易摩擦的担忧。与此同时，莫斯科和基辅之间可能进行的停火谈判对缓解全球紧张局势收效甚微，风险规避情绪居高不下。在国内，焦点转向财政部长Fernando Haddad和央行行长Gabriel Galípolo之间的会晤，预计将揭示财政救济措施是否会挤出信贷或收紧融资条件。巴西国家石油公司在IBAMA批准其Foz do Amazonas检查计划后小幅上涨，尽管许可证的不确定性限制了更广泛的能源收益。农业综合企业股票也下跌，因为主要家禽地区的疑似禽流感病例增加了重新实施出口限制的风险。

The Ibovespa slipped about 0.3% to below the 139,500 level on Tuesday, retreating from record highs as geopolitical tensions and domestic policy risks weighed on sentiment. Disappointment over US President Trump’s failure to deliver the tariff rollbacks promised on April 2nd raised concerns over prolonged trade friction for key Brazilian exporters. Meanwhile, talk of possible ceasefire negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv did little to ease global tensions, keeping risk aversion elevated. Domestically, focus turned to a meeting between Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and Central Bank President Gabriel Galípolo, expected to reveal whether fiscal relief efforts might crowd out credit or tighten funding conditions. Petrobras posted modest gains after IBAMA approved its Foz do Amazonas inspection plan, though licensing uncertainty capped broader energy gains. Agribusiness stocks also fell as suspected bird-flu cases in major poultry regions raised the risk of renewed export restrictions.