美国可可 (Cocoa) 加自选

特朗普的巴西关税受到威胁-他在国会的一些政党投票反对。几位资深共和党参议员与民主党人一起投票终止特朗普总统的国家紧急状态声明，该声明支持对巴西的新关税制度。

Trump's Brazil tariffs are under threat - some of his party in Congress vote against.Several senior Republican senators have joined Democrats in voting to terminate President Trump's national emergency declaration underpinning the new tariff regime on Brazil.

正如预期的那样，智利央行在10月份的会议上一致决定将基准利率维持在4.75%不变。董事会指出，外部环境基本上如预期般发展，美联储在劳动力市场疲软和美国政府部分停摆的迹象下降息。全球金融市场总体表现良好，而油价小幅下跌，铜因供应限制和地缘政治因素大幅上涨。在国内，活动和需求的发展与9月份IPoM的预测一致，8月份的Imacec环比收缩0.7%，但同比增长0.5%，而非采矿部分增长1.7%。劳动力市场继续发出喜忧参半的信号，失业率略有下降，工资增长放缓。9月份总通胀率达到4.4%，核心通胀率达到3.9%，均符合预测，而两年通胀预期仍在3%左右。

The Central Bank of Chile left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75% in a unanimous decision during its October meeting, as expected. The board noted that the external environment has evolved largely as projected, with the US Federal Reserve cutting rates amid signs of labour market weakness and a partial US government shutdown. Global financial markets have performed favourably overall, while oil prices fell slightly and copper rose sharply on supply constraints and geopolitical factors. Domestically, activity and demand have evolved in line with projections from the September IPoM, with August’s Imacec contracting 0.7% month on month but rising 0.5% year on year, while the non-mining component increased 1.7%. The labour market continues to send mixed signals, with a mild decline in unemployment and slowing wage growth. Total inflation reached 4.4% in September and core inflation 3.9%, both in line with forecasts, while two-year inflation expectations remain around 3%.

周二，Ibovespa指数上涨0.3%，收于147429点，创下历史新高，市场正在等待主要的盈利结果。巴西银行上涨1%，领涨圣保罗交易的大型银行，而桑坦德银行和Bradesco在本周业绩公布前小幅上涨。淡水河谷在周四财报日前上涨1%，铁矿石价格上涨和创纪录的产量支撑了强劲的利润预测。Ambev在业绩公布前下跌0.9%。与此同时，更广泛的市场仍然受到美国和巴西在各自总统会晤后达成贸易协议的希望的支撑。

The Ibovespa rose 0.3% to close at a fresh record of 147,429 on Tuesday, as markets awaited major earnings results. Banco do Brasil added 1% to lead the large banks traded in Sao Paulo, while Santander and Bradesco inched higher ahead of their results this week. Vale added 1% ahead of Thursday's earnings date, with projections of robust profits supported by elevated iron ore prices and record output. Ambev lost 0.9% ahead of its results. In the meantime, the broader market remained supported by hopes of a trade deal between the US and Brazil following their respective Presidents meeting.

巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率升至5.35，这得益于与美国贸易风险的缓解、外部资金流入的恢复以及与大宗商品挂钩的基本面因素的弹性。路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦总统和唐纳德·特朗普总统最近的会晤缓解了贸易政策尾部风险，此前卢拉表示，特朗普“保证”了美巴贸易协议，改善了出口流动和外部融资的前景。此后，在言论和筹备谈判解冻的迹象下，市场重新定价了较低的关税风险，降低了支撑巴西经常账户的大宗商品出口受到冲击的可能性。此外，在美国政府持续关闭和美联储降息预期上升的情况下，美元仍然疲软。巴西实际利率仍在上升，这保持了其套利吸引力，而中国经济活动的增强和大宗商品价格的走强进一步支撑了预期的出口收入，加强了雷亚尔的升值。

The Brazilian real strengthened toward 5.35 per US dollar, supported by easing trade risks with the United States, renewed external inflows, and resilient commodity-linked fundamentals. The recent meeting between Presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump eased trade-policy tail risks after Lula stated that Trump had “guaranteed” a US–Brazil trade deal, improving prospects for export flows and external financing. Markets have since repriced a lower tariff risk amid signs of thawing rhetoric and preparatory talks, reducing the likelihood of shocks to commodity exports that underpin Brazil’s current account. Additionally, the dollar has remained subdued amid the ongoing US government shutdown and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Brazil’s still-elevated real interest rates preserve its carry appeal, while stronger Chinese activity and firmer commodity prices further support expected export revenues, reinforcing the real’s appreciation.