美国可可 (Cocoa) 加自选

周四，Ibovespa指数小幅下跌0.1%，收于145500点，投资者消化了Copom的决定，并权衡了全球利率前景。央行连续第二次将基准利率维持在15%，并表示利率可能会在一段时间内保持高位，因为劳动力市场强劲，财政支持仍然充足，通胀预期尚未稳定。这种谨慎的立场对股市几乎没有支撑作用，尽管在美联储降息后，信贷敏感股仍保持了昨日的大部分涨幅。《路易莎》杂志下跌1.1%，而雷纳上涨0.4%。在大宗商品中，淡水河谷下跌0.4%，巴西国家石油公司下跌1%。银行股涨跌互现，巴西银行上涨1.1%，桑坦德银行下跌0.8%。

The Ibovespa edged down 0.1% to close at 145,500 on Thursday as investors digested Copom’s decision and weighed the global rate outlook. The Central Bank kept the Selic at 15% for a second consecutive meeting and said rates are likely to remain elevated for some time because the labour market is strong, fiscal support remains ample and inflation expectations are not yet anchored. That cautious stance did little to support equities, though credit sensitive names retained much of yesterday’s gains after the Fed cut rates. Magazine Luiza fell 1.1% while Renner rose 0.4%. Among commodities, Vale lost 0.4% and Petrobras 1%. Banks were mixed with Banco do Brasil up 1.1% and Santander down 0.8%.

2025年8月，阿根廷的贸易顺差从一年前的18.75亿美元降至14.02亿美元，是今年迄今为止最大的月度顺差。进口同比增长32.4%，达到64.63亿美元，主要受消费品（+15.3%）、乘用车（+8.6%）和资本货物零部件（+19.7%）显著增长的推动，而其他类别则呈现出喜忧参半的态势。出口增长16.4%，至78.65亿美元，主要得益于初级产品（+35.7%）和农产工业制成品（+18.1%）的增长，部分被工业制成品（-7.0%）的下降所抵消。截至2025年8月，今年贸易顺差为50.71亿美元，低于2024年同期的140.75亿美元。

Argentina’s trade surplus shrank to USD 1.402 billion in August 2025, down from USD 1.875 billion a year earlier and the largest monthly surplus so far this year. Imports rose 32.4% year-on-year to USD 6.463 billion, driven by notable increases in consumer goods (+15.3%), passenger motor vehicles (+8.6%) and parts and accessories for capital goods (+19.7%), while other categories showed mixed dynamics. Exports rose 16.4% to USD 7.865 billion, led by gains in primary products (+35.7%) and agro-industrial manufactures (+18.1%), partly offset by a decline in industrial manufactures (-7.0%). For the year-to-date through August 2025, the trade surplus stood at USD 5.071 billion, down from USD 14.075 billion in the same period of 2024.

2025年第二季度，阿根廷的失业率降至7.6%，低于2021年第三季度以来的最高水平7.9%。与此同时，就业率从上一季度的44.4%上升到44.5%，而劳动力参与率从48.2%下降到48.1%。

Argentina's unemployment rate eased to 7.6% in the second quarter of 2025, down from the highest level since Q3 2021 of 7.9% in the previous period. Meanwhile, the employment rate increased to 44.5% from 44.4% in the prior quarter, while the labor force participation rate fell to 48.1% from 48.2%.

米莱的议程面临障碍，阿根廷比索面临压力。阿根廷股市周四下跌，因为政府前一天淡化了央行的干预，而随着关键选举的临近，国会和街头对总统哈维尔·米利的议程的反对声音越来越大。

Argentina's peso under strain as Milei's agenda faces hurdles.Argentine markets fell on Thursday as the government downplayed a central bank intervention the day before while facing heightened opposition to President Javier Milei's agenda in Congress and on the streets as critical elections approach.