英国6个月期国债 (UK6M) 加自选

英国10年期国债收益率升至4.65%，投资者消化了好坏参半的经济信号。6月份零售额在5月份大幅下降2.8%后反弹0.9%，但复苏弱于预期，尤其是核心销售额仅增长0.6%，而预测为1.2%。温暖的天气帮助提振了食品店的销售，尽管5月份的数据进一步下调，加剧了人们对英国经济势头的担忧。再加上疲软的PMI数据，这加剧了人们对英格兰银行将更关注增长而非通胀的预期，市场预计下个月和今年晚些时候将降息25个基点。尽管前景温和，但金边债券收益率攀升，反映了更广泛的全球动态。在特朗普表示不会解雇美联储主席鲍威尔之后，随着投资者撤回美联储降息押注，风险偏好正在消退。与此同时，欧洲央行的鹰派立场也降低了人们对欧洲进一步降息的预期。

UK 10-year gilt yields rose to 4.65% as investors digested mixed economic signals. June retail sales rebounded 0.9% after a sharp 2.8% drop in May, but the recovery was weaker than expected, especially with core sales rising just 0.6% versus a forecasted 1.2%. Warm weather helped lift food store sales, though May’s figures were revised down further, adding to concerns about the UK’s economic momentum. Combined with soft PMI data, this has fueled expectations that the Bank of England will focus more on growth than inflation, with markets pricing in a 25 bps rate cut next month and another later this year. Despite this dovish outlook, gilt yields climbed, reflecting broader global dynamics. Appetite for risk is fading as investors dial back Fed rate-cut bets, following Trump’s comments that he won’t fire Fed Chair Powell. Meanwhile, a hawkish stance from the ECB is also tempering expectations for further European rate cuts.

英镑跌至1.347美元，从两周高点1.358美元进一步回落，因英国最近的数据将焦点从通胀转向增长担忧。6月份零售额在5月份大幅下降2.8%后仅反弹0.9%，5月份的零售额进一步下调。不包括汽车和燃料在内的核心销售额仅增长0.6%，低于1.2%的增长预期。温暖的天气促进了食品销售，但疲软的复苏加剧了人们对英国经济势头的担忧。再加上令人失望的PMI数据，这些数据增强了人们的预期，即英格兰银行将优先支持增长，而不是解决通胀问题。市场越来越多地预计8月份将降息25个基点，预计今年晚些时候将再次降息。与此同时，美元上涨，因对美联储降息的希望降低，尤其是在特朗普总统表示没有必要解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔之后。在欧洲，欧洲央行的鹰派基调正导致交易员降低对今年进一步降息的预期。

The British pound fell to $1.347, retreating further from its two-week high of $1.358, as recent UK data shifted focus from inflation to growth concerns. June retail sales rebounded by just 0.9% after a sharp 2.8% drop in May, which was revised even lower. Core sales excluding autos and fuel rose only 0.6%, missing forecasts of a 1.2% gain. The warm weather boosted food sales, but the weak recovery adds to worries over the UK’s economic momentum. Combined with disappointing PMI figures, the data strengthens expectations that the Bank of England will prioritize supporting growth over tackling inflation. Markets are increasingly pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in August, with a second one expected later in the year. Meanwhile, the US dollar gained on reduced hopes for Fed rate cuts, especially after President Trump said there's no need to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In Europe, a hawkish ECB tone is leading traders to scale back expectations for further rate cuts this year.

英国零售数据弱于预期后，富时100指数周五下跌，结束了六天的连胜。6月份零售额增长0.9%，低于预期，而5月份的大幅下降被下调至-2.8%，为2023年12月以来的最差水平。消费者信心也有所下降，GfK指数下跌，因为家庭正在为可能的秋季增税做准备。京东体育领跌，跌幅超过2.5%，受彪马下调盈利预期后对美国关税的担忧影响。Rightmove下跌超过1.5%，尽管超过了上半年的利润预期，因为它警告称下半年的增长将放缓。然而，它注意到房地产市场趋势的改善，6月份的上市和需求同比分别增长了9%和6%。从好的方面来看，NatWest上涨了1%以上，此前该公司将全年收入前景上调至160亿英镑以上，并宣布在2025年下半年回购7.5亿英镑的股票。尽管周五有所下跌，但富时100指数仍有望连续第五周上涨，徘徊在历史高点附近。

The FTSE 100 traded lower on Friday, snapping a six-day winning streak, after weaker-than-expected UK retail data. Retail sales rose 0.9% in June, missing forecasts, while May’s sharp drop was revised down to -2.8%, the worst since December 2023. Consumer sentiment also dipped, with GfK's index falling as households brace for possible autumn tax hikes. JD Sports led losses, down over 2.5%, hit by concerns over US tariffs after Puma slashed its earnings forecast. Rightmove fell more than 1.5% despite beating H1 profit estimates, as it warned that growth in H2 would slow. However, it noted improving property market trends, with June listings and demand up 9% and 6% year-on-year. On the upside, NatWest rose over 1% after raising its full-year income outlook to over £16 billion and announcing a £750 million share buyback for H2 2025. Despite Friday’s dip, the FTSE 100 remains on track for a fifth straight weekly gain, hovering near record highs.

2025年6月，英国零售额环比增长0.9%，从前一个月修正后的2.8%的下降中反弹，但未达到市场预期的1.2%的增长。这是今年迄今为止的第四次增长。食品店销售额增长0.7%，扭转了5月份5.4%的下降趋势，这得益于温暖天气下超市销售的改善，尤其是饮料。汽车燃料销售额增长2.8%，为2024年5月以来的最大月度增长，这也得益于有利的天气。在线销售额（非实体零售商）增长1.7%，达到2022年2月以来的最高水平。与此同时，非食品类商店的销售额增长了0.2%，百货商店和服装零售商报告称，促销活动和天气相关需求有所改善。不包括燃料，销售额增长0.6%，也从2.8%的下降中反弹。零售额同比增长1.7%，高于5月份修正后的1.1%的下降，但略低于1.8%的增长预测。

UK retail sales rose 0.9% month-over-month in June 2025, rebounding from a revised 2.8% drop in the previous month but missing market expectations of a 1.2% gain. It marked the fourth increase so far this year. Food store sales volumes gained 0.7%, reversing a 5.4% decline in May, supported by improved supermarket sales, particularly beverages, amid warm weather. Automotive fuel sales jumped 2.8%, the largest monthly rise since May 2024, also helped by favorable weather. Online sales (non-store retailers) rose 1.7%, reaching their highest level since February 2022. Meanwhile, non-food store sales added 0.2%, with department stores and clothing retailers reporting improved activity, citing promotions and weather-related demand. Excluding fuel, sales rose 0.6%, also rebounding from a 2.8% fall. On a yearly basis, retail sales increased 1.7%, swinging from a revised 1.1% drop in May, though slightly below forecasts of a 1.8% rise.