英国1个月期国债 (UK1M) 加自选

富时100指数上涨0.4%，收于8870点，接近历史最高水平，此前英国公布了劳动力数据，并对伦敦美中贸易谈判持乐观态度。英国失业率升至4.6%，为2021年以来的最高水平，是疫情以来失业人数最多的国家，而工资增长低于预期。劳动力市场降温提振了人们对英格兰银行降息的预期，9月份的降息现在几乎完全反映在价格中。在全球范围内，随着美国和中国官员之间的谈判继续进行，市场上涨，这增加了避免全面贸易战的希望。在企业新闻方面，帝亚吉欧股价小幅上涨，有报道称，帝亚吉欧可能会出售其通过United Spirits拥有的IPL皇家挑战者班加罗尔队的部分或全部股份，在该队首次获得IPL冠军后，其估值可能达到20亿美元。房屋建筑商Bellway表示，春季交易仍然强劲，买家信心增强，预订率提高。其订单量增长，平均售价上涨，激励水平保持稳定，支持全年指导。

The FTSE 100 rose 0.4% to near record levels at 8870, following UK labour data and optimism over US-China trade talks in London. UK unemployment rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, with the most job losses since the pandemic, while wage growth came in below forecasts. The cooling labour market boosted expectations for Bank of England rate cuts, with a September cut now nearly fully priced in. Globally, markets gained as talks between US and Chinese officials continued, raising hopes of avoiding a full-blown trade war. In corporate news, Diageo shares edged higher on reports it may sell part or all of IPL team Royal Challengers Bengaluru, which it owns through United Spirits, with a potential $2B valuation following the team’s first IPL title. Homebuilder Bellway said trading remained strong through spring, with higher buyer confidence and improved reservation rates. Its order book grew, average selling prices rose, and incentive levels stayed stable, supporting full-year guidance.

英国就业下降重创英镑。在一系列温和令人担忧的就业报告之后，本周的英国就业数据增加了实际疲软的风险。失业人数增加了109000人，还有其他领域的数据疲软。

UK Employment Drop Tanks the Pound.After a sequence of mildly concerning jobs reports, this week's UK employment data raised the risk of real weakness. Unemployment rose by 109,000 and there were other areas of soft data.

路透社调查：英国央行将在第三季度和第四季度降息25个基点。路透社调查的59位经济学家中，绝大多数预计英格兰银行（BoE）将在第三季度和第四季度将政策下调25个基点，将银行利率从目前的4.25%降至3.75%。

Reuters poll: BoE to cut interest rate by 25 bps in Q3 and Q4.A large majority of 59 economists polled by Reuters expect the Bank of England (BoE) to cut the policy by 25 basis points (bps) in the third quarter and the fourth quarter, bringing down the bank rate to 3.75% from 4.25%, where it currently stands.

英国就业数据推动英国央行8月降息押注，英镑暴跌。在英国劳动力市场数据惨淡加剧了人们对英国央行8月份降息的预期后，英镑今天明显被抛售。最引人注目的因素是，有薪就业人数下降了-10.9万，这是自2014年有记录以来最大的非疫情下降，同时失业率上升至2023年中期以来的最高水平。

Sterling Slumps as UK Jobs Data Fuels August BoE Rate Cut Bets.Sterling is sold off notably today after dismal UK labor market data intensified expectations of a BoE rate cut in August. The most striking element was the -109k drop in payrolled employment—the largest non-pandemic decline since records began in 2014—coupled with a rise in the unemployment rate to its highest level since mid-2023.