土耳其10年期国债 (Turkey10Y) 加自选

伊斯坦布尔工业商会土耳其制造业采购经理人指数从上个月的47.2降至2025年6月的46.7。这标志着连续第15个月出现收缩，也是自2024年10月以来的最大跌幅。新订单进一步减弱，延续了两年前开始的当前序列，新出口订单降至三个月低点。因此，制造商以2024年10月以来最快的速度缩减了产量。就业和购买活动也大幅减少，均创下9个月来最大跌幅。此外，采购库存下降，但生产后库存三个月来首次上升。此外，交货时间四个月来首次延长。谈到价格，由于货币疲软和伊朗局势的通胀影响，投入成本急剧上升。相比之下，在需求疲软的情况下，产出价格增长速度较慢。

The Istanbul Chamber of Industry Türkiye Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.7 in June 2025 from 47.2 in the previous month. This marked the fifteenth consecutive month of contraction and the sharpest drop since October 2024. New orders weakened further, extending the current sequence which began two years ago, with new export orders falling to a three-month low. Consequently, manufacturers scaled back production at the fastest pace since October 2024. Employment and purchasing activity were also reduced to larger extents, both recording the steepest falls in nine months. In addition, stocks of purchases decreased, but post-production inventories rose for the first time in three months. Moreover, delivery times lengthened for the first time in four months. Turning to prices, input costs rose sharply due to currency weakness and the inflationary impact of the situation in Iran. In contrast, output prices increased at a slower pace amid muted demand.

土耳其经季节性调整的失业率从上个月的8.6%降至5月份的8.4%。失业人数减少6.9万人，降至297.2万人。与此同时，就业人数增加了10万人，达到3251.9万人，就业率从4月份修订后的48.9%小幅上升至49.0%。男性就业率小幅上升至66.3%，而女性就业率稳定在32.2%。此外，劳动力参与率保持在53.5%不变。青年失业率（15-24岁）从4月份的15.7%降至15.4%。

Turkey’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate slipped to 8.4% in May from 8.6% in the previous month. The number of unemployed individuals fell by 69,000 to 2.972 million. Meanwhile, employment increased by 100,000 to 32.519 million, lifting the employment rate slightly to 49.0% from a revised 48.9% in April. Male employment rate edged up to 66.3%, while the rate for women held steady at 32.2%. Additionally, the labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 53.5%. Youth unemployment (ages 15–24) declined to 15.4% from 15.7% in April.

2025年5月，土耳其的贸易逆差为66亿美元，略高于初步估计和去年同期的65亿美元。尽管如此，这标志着自2024年10月以来贸易逆差最小，出口同比增长2.6%，达到248.2亿美元的历史新高，主要是由于制造业（2.9%）、农业、林业和渔业（0.7%）以及其他行业（9.3%）的销售额增加。在主要目的地中，最大的出口市场是德国（8.4%）、英国（6.1%）和美国（6.1%。与此同时，进口增长2.7%，达到314.6亿美元，主要受消费品（12.8%）、资本品（2.1%）和中间产品（0.7%）购买量增加的推动。主要进口来源是中国（13.7%）、俄罗斯（10.4%）和德国（8.5%）。考虑到今年前五个月，贸易逆差达到412.6亿美元，而2024年同期为366.2亿美元。

Turkey's trade deficit came in at USD 6.6 billion in May 2025, slightly higher than both the preliminary estimate and the figure from the same month of the previous year, which were USD 6.5 billion. Still, this marked the smallest trade gap since October 2024, as exports rose by 2.6% year-on-year to an all-time high of USD 24.82 billion, mainly due to higher sales of manufacturing (2.9%), agriculture, forestry, and fishing (0.7%), and others (9.3%). Among major destinations, the largest export markets were Germany (8.4%), the UK (6.1%), and the US (6.1%). Meanwhile, imports grew at a faster 2.7% to USD 31.46 billion, primarily driven by increased purchases of consumption goods (12.8%), capital goods (2.1%), and intermediate goods (0.7%). The leading sources of imports were China (13.7%), Russia (10.4%), and Germany (8.5%). Considering the first five months of the year, the trade deficit reached USD 41.26 billion, compared to USD 36.62 billion during the same period in 2024.

2025年6月，土耳其经济信心指数稳定在96.7，与上月持平。消费者（5月份为85.1比84.8）和服务提供商（110.9比110.5）的信心有所改善。然而，这些温和的增长被零售商（108.5对111.2）、建筑商（86.9对88.4）和制造商（98.4对98.6）的疲软情绪所抵消。

The Economic Confidence Index in Turkey held steady at 96.7 in June 2025, unchanged from the previous month. Confidence improved in consumers (85.1 vs 84.8 in May) and services providers (110.9 vs 110.5). However, these modest gains were offset by softer sentiment among retailers (108.5 vs 111.2), constructors (86.9 vs 88.4), and manufacturers (98.4 vs 98.6).