土耳其10年期国债 (Turkey10Y) 加自选

10月份，土耳其BIST 100指数跌至10925点，未能维持上周测试的11600点的历史高点，因为政治风险和高利率前景对风险资产的需求造成了压力。最新的价格数据显示，9月份国内通胀率为33.3%，这是自2024年5月以来首次较上月上涨，消除了持续通缩将使土耳其央行继续优先考虑增长的观点。这恰逢土耳其法院本月晚些时候对主要反对党共和党领导层作出裁决之前出现新的政治风险，这可能会导致新的资本外流。自年初以来，BIST 100指数仍上涨了11%，因为飙升的通货膨胀和疲软的货币促使投资者大量购买股票和债券，以防止购买力下降。

Turkey's BIST 100 index fell to the 10,925 mark in October, failing to maintain the record-high of 11,600 that was tested last week as political risk and the outlook of high interest rates pressured demand for riskier assets. Fresh price data reflected a domestic inflation rate of 33.3% in September, marking the first increase from the previous month since May of 2024 to erase the view that continuous disinflation would allow the Turkish central bank to continue prioritizing growth. This coincided with fresh political risk ahead of the Turkish court's ruling on the leadership of the main opposition Republican People's Party later this month, which risks fresh capital outflows. The BIST 100 remained 11% higher since the start of the year, as soaring inflation and a weakening currency drove investors to pile on stocks and bonds to protect from an eroding purchasing power.

尽管美元势头减弱，但土耳其里拉在10月初保持了逐渐走弱的趋势，降至41.6美元的历史低点，因为土耳其央行继续干预外汇市场以控制土耳其对硬通货的需求。上个月，央行将参考利率下调250个基点至40.5%，将自50%峰值以来的宽松周期延长至2024年底。尽管面临外汇压力，政策制定者仍选择继续宽松政策，因为出售硬通货储备和一系列防止里拉抛售的资本管制足以控制货币贬值。土耳其法院推迟了对主要反对党共和党领导层的清算，也避免了引发货币问题。与此同时，9月份通货膨胀率一年来首次上升，微升至33.3%，阻止了该国支持TCMB提高利率的通缩势头。

The Turkish lira maintained its gradual weakening trend to a record low of 41.6 per USD in early October, despite the weaker momentum for the US dollar, as the Turkish central bank continued to intervene in foreign exchange markets to control Turkey's demand for hard currency. The central bank cut its reference rate by 250bps last month to 40.5%, extending its easing cycle since peaking at 50% to late 2024. Policymaker opted to continue easing policy despite the foreign exchange pressures, as the selling of hard-currency reserves and series of capital controls to prevent lira selloffs were enough control the currency's depreciation. Triggers on the currency were also avoided as Turkey's court postponed a ruing on the leadership of the main opposition Republican People’s Party. Meanwhile, inflation rose for the first time in one year in September, inching higher to 33.3%, halting the country's disinflation momentum to favor higher rates by the TCMB.

土耳其的年通货膨胀率从8月份的32.95%微升至2025年9月的33.29%，超过了市场预期的32.5%。这标志着15个月来通货膨胀率首次上升，主要原因是交通（8月份为25.30%对24.86%）、服装和鞋类（9.8%对9.49%）、通信（23.20%对20.61%）和教育（66.10%对60.91%）的价格上涨更快。相比之下，住房和公用事业（51.36%对53.27%）、食品和非酒精饮料（33.06%对33.28%）、酒精饮料和烟草（24.49%对29.71%）、家居用品和维护（29.32%对29.74%）、娱乐和文化（24.85%对26.16%）、医疗服务（35.21%对36.59%）以及杂项商品和服务（31.06%对33.33%）的价格增长有所放缓。核心通胀率从8月份的33.0%降至32.54%。按月计算，9月份消费者价格指数上涨3.23%，8月份上涨2.04%，超过预期的2.6%。

Turkey’s annual inflation rate edged up to 33.29% in September 2025 from 32.95% in August, surpassing market expectations of 32.5%. This marked the first rise in inflation in 15 months, driven primarily by faster price increases in transportation (25.30% vs 24.86% in August), clothing and footwear (9.8% vs 9.49%), communication (23.20% vs 20.61%), and education (66.10% vs 60.91%). In contrast, price growth moderated in housing and utilities (51.36% vs 53.27%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (33.06% vs 33.28%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (24.49% vs 29.71%), household furnishings and maintenance (29.32% vs 29.74%), recreation and culture (24.85% vs 26.16%), health services (35.21% vs 36.59%), and miscellaneous goods and services (31.06% vs 33.03%). Core inflation eased to 32.54% from 33.0% in August. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 3.23% in September, following a 2.04% increase in August and beating the expected 2.6% gain.

土耳其的年度生产者通胀率从上个月的25.16%上升到2025年9月的26.59%。这是自1月以来的最高水平，主要是由于制造业（26.63%对8月的24.73%）和采矿和采石业（28.73%对27.62%）的价格上涨。相反，电力、天然气、蒸汽和空调（23.81%对26.68%）以及供水（55.03%对55.35%）的价格增长放缓。9月份生产者价格指数环比上涨2.52%，为五个月来最大涨幅，8月份上涨2.48%。

The annual producer inflation in Turkey rose to 26.59% in September 2025 from 25.16% in the previous month. This marked the highest level since January, driven mainly by rising prices for manufacturing (26.63% vs 24.73% in August) and mining and quarrying (28.73% vs 27.62%). Conversely, price growth slowed for electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning (23.81% vs 26.68%) and water supply (55.03% vs 55.35%). On a monthly basis, producer prices climbed 2.52% in September, the sharpest rise in five months, after a 2.48% increase in August.