瑞士10年期国债 (Switzerland10Y) 加自选

瑞士即期存款激增引发央行货币干预的讨论。周一的数据显示，上周商业银行在瑞士国家银行隔夜存放的现金升至15个月来的最高水平，引发了人们的猜测，即央行可能正在干预以削弱瑞士法郎。

Swiss sight deposits jump spurs talk of central bank currency intervention.Cash lodged by commercial banks overnight with the Swiss National Bank rose to its highest level in 15 months last week, data showed on Monday, sparking speculation the central bank could be intervening to weaken the Swiss franc.

瑞士央行截至7月18日的即期存款总额为4753亿瑞士法郎，而此前为4641亿瑞士法郎。过去一周，瑞士的即期存款再次大幅上升，许多金融机构都在寻求避免负利率。上个月降息后，瑞士隔夜平均利率（SARON）已跌至-0.03%和-0.04%左右。

SNB total sight deposits w.e. 18 July CHF 475.3 bn vs CHF 464.1 bn prior.Once again, Swiss sight deposits are seen jumping higher in the past week with many financial institutions seeking to avoid negative rates. After the rate cut last month, the Swiss Average Rate Overnight (SARON) has fallen to hover around -0.03% and -0.04%.

2025年6月，瑞士的贸易顺差扩大到43亿瑞士法郎，比上个月向上修正的22亿瑞士法郎几乎翻了一番。出口环比增长8.6%，达到230亿瑞士法郎，这得益于对汽车（19.1%）、化学药品（14.8%）和精密仪器（4.8%）的强劲需求。斯洛文尼亚（75.8%）、捷克共和国（61.4%）和爱尔兰（51.6%）的出货量增幅最大。瑞士对美国的出口在6月份增长了26.9%，从5月份的43.8%下降反弹，此前近两周前贸易协议草案获得批准，最终签署仍在等待唐纳德·特朗普总统。与此同时，进口下降1.5%，至187亿瑞士法郎，受化学药品（-6.6%）、纸张和图形产品（-36%）和能源（-2.7%）到货减少的影响。进口下降幅度最大的是沙特阿拉伯（-73.5%）、韩国（-65.7%）和斯洛文尼亚（-44%）。

Switzerland's trade surplus widened to CHF 4.3 billion in June 2025, almost doubling from an upwardly revised CHF 2.2 billion in the previous month. Exports rose by 8.6% month-over-month to CHF 23 billion, buoyed by strong demand for vehicles (19.1%), chemical-pharmaceutical products (14.8%), and precision instruments (4.8%). The sharpest increases in shipments were recorded to Slovenia (75.8%), the Czech Republic (61.4%), and Ireland (51.6%). Swiss exports to the US jumped 26.9% in June, rebounding from a 43.8% drop in May, after a draft trade deal was approved nearly two weeks ago, with final sign-off still awaiting President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, imports fell by 1.5% to CHF 18.7 billion, weighed down by decreased arrivals of chemical-pharmaceutical products (-6.6%), paper and graphic products (-3.6%), and energy sources (-2.7%). The most significant declines in imports came from Saudi Arabia (-73.5%), South Korea (-65.7%), and Slovenia (-44%).

10年期瑞士政府债券收益率升至0.48%左右，为4月18日以来的最高水平，因投资者对全球贸易紧张局势的重新爆发做出了反应。在针对多个合作伙伴的一系列升级贸易措施之后，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁对来自欧盟和墨西哥的进口商品征收30%的关税，这给市场增加了新的不确定性。瑞士仍在等待美国正式的海关信函，尽管一份贸易协议草案表明，该国可能会获得优惠待遇，以避免与制药相关的关税。在货币政策方面，6月份高于预期的通胀报告抑制了人们对瑞士国家银行进一步放宽政策的预期。6月份通货膨胀率恢复到0.1%的正区间，令预测CPI下降0.1%的市场感到惊讶。瑞士央行官员预计将在9月份将利率稳定在0%，许多分析师预测，利率可能会在2026年之前保持在这一水平。

The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond rose to around 0.48%, its highest since April 18, as investors reacted to renewed global trade tensions. US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 30% tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico added fresh uncertainty to markets, following a series of escalatory trade measures targeting multiple partners. Switzerland is still awaiting a formal US customs letter, though a draft trade deal suggests the country could receive preferential treatment to avoid pharma-related tariffs. On the monetary policy front, June's hotter-than-expected inflation report dampened expectations of further policy easing by the Swiss National Bank. Inflation returned to positive territory in June at 0.1%, surprising markets that had predicted a 0.1% decline in CPI. The SNB officials are expected to keep the interest rate steady at 0% in September, with many analysts forecasting that it will likely remain at that level through 2026.