冰岛10年期国债 (Iceland10Y) 加自选

冰岛央行在2025年8月的会议上将关键利率稳定在7.5%，在连续五次降息后暂停了宽松周期。暂停反映了该行的谨慎立场，因为通胀前景仍然高度不确定。7月份的整体通胀率从6月份的4.2%降至4.0%，但仍远高于该行2.5%的目标。在其最新预测中，该行预计通胀将在未来几个月再次上升，然后在2026年初逐渐缓解。在货币紧缩的情况下，国内需求有所减弱，减少了住房和劳动力市场等领域的产能压力。即便如此，经济继续表现出弹性，这反映在工资上涨上。央行强调，进一步降息将取决于通胀是否接近目标。政策制定者还强调，近期决策将受到经济活动、通胀和通胀预期趋势的指导。

The Central Bank of Iceland held its key interest rate steady at 7.5% during its August 2025 meeting, pausing its easing cycle after five consecutive cuts. The pause reflects the bank’s cautious stance as inflation outlook remains highly uncertain. Headline inflation slowed to 4.0% in July from 4.2% in June, but still well above the bank’s 2.5% target. In its latest forecast, the bank projected inflation to rise again in the coming months before gradually easing in early 2026. Domestic demand has softened under tighter monetary conditions, reducing capacity pressures in areas such as housing and labour market. Even so, the economy continues to show resilience, as reflected in rising wages. The central bank emphasized that further rate cuts will depend on whether inflation moves closer to target. Policymakers also highlighted that near-term decisions will be guided by trends in economic activity, inflation, and inflation expectations.

2025年7月，冰岛的贸易逆差从去年同期的341亿冰岛克朗扩大到442亿冰岛克朗。出口同比下降11.8%，至724亿冰岛克朗，主要原因是制成品（-18%）和海产品（-3.9%）的出货量减少。相反，农产品出口增长了近94%。与此同时，进口增长0.3%，达到1166亿冰岛克朗，因为除运输外的资本货物采购增加（+27.4%）被运输设备采购减少（-15.7%）所抵消；燃料和润滑油（-13.9%）和工业用品（-5.2%）。

Iceland’s trade deficit widened to ISK 44.2 billion in July 2025 from ISK 34.1 billion in the same month last year. Exports declined by 11.8% year-on-year to ISK 72.4 billion, mainly due to reduced shipments of manufactured products (-18%) and marine products (-3.9%). Conversely, exports of agricultural products jumped nearly 94%. Meanwhile, imports rose by 0.3% to ISK 116.6 billion, as higher purchases of capital goods, except transportation (+27.4%) were offset by decreases in those of transport equipment (-15.7%); fuels & lubricants (-13.9%) and industrial supplies (-5.2%).

冰岛经季节性调整的失业率从前一个月的3.1%降至2025年6月的2.8%，为2024年8月以来的最低水平。这是由于失业人数环比减少700人，降至6600人。在这些人中，有3100名男性失业，3500名女性失业。衡量16-24岁求职者的青年失业率从前一个月的4.7%增长了5%。与此同时，5月份就业人数增加1100人，达到23.04万人。劳动力参与率从上月的81.1%上升到82.3%。

Iceland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate eased to 2.8% in June 2025 from 3.1% in the previous month, marking the lowest reading since August 2024. This was driven by the decrease in the number of unemployed individuals by 700 month-on-month to 6,600. Of these, 3,100 were unemployed men and 3,500 were women. The youth unemployment rate, which measures job seekers between 16-24 years old, grew by 5% from 4.7% in the preceding month. Meanwhile, employment increased by 1,100 to 230,400 in May. The labor force participation rate rose by 82.3% from 81.1% in the previous month.

冰岛的年通货膨胀率从上个月的4.2%小幅降至2025年7月的4.0%。食品和非酒精饮料（6月份为5.0%对6.0%）、酒精饮料和烟草（5.6%对5.8%）、住房和公用事业（7.1%对7.2%）、娱乐和文化（2.9%对3.3%）以及通信（2.5%对2.7%）的价格有所放缓。此外，家具和家用设备的成本进一步下降（-0.9%对-0.3%）。与此同时，服装和鞋类（2.9%对1.4%）、运输（2.5%对2.0%）以及杂项商品和服务（4.6%对4.0%）的价格上涨。按月计算，消费者价格指数从前一个月的0.8%降至0.3%。

The annual inflation rate in Iceland inched down to 4.0% in July 2025 from 4.2% in the previous month. Prices moderated for food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.0% vs 6.0% in June), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (5.6% vs 5.8%), housing and utilities (7.1% vs 7.2%), recreation and culture (2.9% vs 3.3%), and communications (2.5% vs 2.7%). In addition, costs declined further for furnishings and household equipment (-0.9% vs -0.3%). Meanwhile, prices increased for clothing and footwear (2.9% vs 1.4%), transport (2.5% vs 2.0%), and miscellaneous goods and services (4.6% vs 4.0%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices eased to 0.3% from 0.8% in the previous month.