德国1个月期国债 (Germany1M) 加自选

法兰克福DAX指数周一收于24273点，下跌约0.4%，扭转了前一交易日的涨势，前一交易日因对美联储可能恢复利率宽松周期的乐观情绪而引发。由于法国的政治消息和欧洲几个主要国家的通胀数据，市场情绪变得更加谨慎。法国总理弗朗索瓦·贝鲁周一宣布，他将于9月8日要求议会进行信任投票，以获得对政府削减400多亿欧元支出计划的支持。在国内宏观方面，德国Ifo商业景气指数从7月的88.6升至8月的89，为2024年5月以来的最高水平，高于88.6的预测。在企业方面，跌幅最大的包括默克（-1.9%）、布伦塔格（-1.6%）、拜耳（-1.6%”）和巴斯夫（-1.5%”）。值得注意的是，在有报道称皮诺家族有意收购彪马后，彪马的股价飙升了16%。

The DAX in Frankfurt closed about 0.4% down at 24,273 on Monday, reversing gains from the previous session, which were sparked by optimism around possible resumption of the Fed's rate-easing cycle. Market sentiment turned more cautious due to political news from France and ahead of inflation data from several major countries in Europe. French Prime Minister François Bayrou announced on Monday that he will request a confidence vote in parliament on September 8 to gain backing for the government’s plan to reduce spending by over €40 billion. On the domestic macro front, Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 89 in August from 88.6 in July, the highest level since May 2024 and above forecasts of 88.6. On the corporate side, top decliners included Merck (-1.9%), Brenntag (-1.6%), Bayer (-1.6%) and BASF (-1.5%). Notably, Puma’s shares surged 16% after reports emerged that the Pinault family is interested in acquiring the company.

8月15日，德国10年期债券收益率攀升至2.75%，接近2.78%的五个月高点，因为投资者关注的是政府债务的增加，就德国而言，是计划借贷的增加。上周五，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示9月降息后，收益率下跌，提振了美国和欧洲债券。但由于欧洲央行似乎不太可能追随美联储，它们再次走高。欧洲央行已经大幅降息，政策制定者建议暂时保持利率稳定。克里斯蒂娜·拉加德总统还指出，欧元区就业市场强劲。除此之外，8月份德国企业士气达到15个月来的最高水平，这表明了其韧性，并减轻了欧洲央行今年再次降息的压力。市场目前预计2025年不会进一步降息，但2026年初可能会采取行动。在其他地方，10年期法国国债收益率跃升至3.51%，此前法国总理弗朗索瓦·贝鲁表示，他将呼吁对预算进行信任投票。

Germany’s 10-year bond yield climbed to 2.75%, nearing a five-month high of 2.78% on August 15, as investors are focused on rising government debt, and in Germany’s case, higher planned borrowing. Yields dropped last Friday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a September cut, boosting US and European bonds. But they moved higher again as the ECB looks less likely to follow the Fed. The ECB has already cut rates more sharply and policymakers suggested keeping rates steady for now. President Christine Lagarde also pointed to a strong Eurozone job market. Adding to the move, German business morale in August hit its best level in 15 months, signaling resilience and reducing pressure on the ECB to cut again this year. Markets now expect no further cut in 2025 but see a possible move in early 2026. Elsewhere, the yield on 10-year French debt jumped to 3.51% after Prime Minister Francois Bayrou said he’d call for a confidence vote over the budget.

德国Ifo商业景气微涨至89.0，复苏依然疲软。德国Ifo商业景气指数8月份小幅上涨，从88.6攀升至89.0，超出预期的88.3。这一改善是由更强劲的预期推动的，该分项指数从90.7升至91.6。

German Ifo business climate edges higher to 89.0, recovery still weak.Germany's Ifo business climate index rose modestly in August, climbing to 89.0 from 88.6 and beating expectations of 88.3. The improvement was driven by stronger expectations, with the sub-index rising to 91.6 from 90.7.

德国10年期债券收益率跌至2.73%以下，与美国国债走势一致，此前美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔讲话中暗示可能降息，但他警告称关税仍构成通胀风险。欧洲央行在8次降息后于7月结束了降息周期，但市场认为今年再次降息的可能性为45%，9月可能会暂停。欧元区势头正在改善，8月份综合采购经理人指数升至51.1，为15个月来最强，制造业自2022年6月以来首次扩张。德国的工厂部门即将结束长期衰退，这表明尽管存在贸易和地缘政治阻力，但仍具有韧性。与此同时，在英国，7月份3.8%的通胀率抑制了人们对英国央行进一步宽松的预期，交易员现在押注于暂停。

Germany’s 10-year bond yield slipped below 2.73%, tracking US Treasuries after Fed Chair Powell signaled possible rate cuts in his Jackson Hole remarks, though he warned tariffs still pose inflation risks. The ECB ended its rate-cut cycle in July after eight cuts but markets assign a 45% chance of another this year, with September likely on hold. Eurozone momentum is improving, with the composite PMI rising to 51.1 in August, its strongest in 15 months, and manufacturing expanding for the first time since June 2022. Germany’s factory sector is nearing the end of a prolonged slump, suggesting resilience despite trade and geopolitical headwinds. Meanwhile, in the UK, hotter July inflation at 3.8% has curbed expectations of further BOE easing, with traders now betting on a pause.