德国10年期国债 (Germany10Y) 加自选

法兰克福DAX指数周五小幅下跌，收于24386点，跌幅约0.2%，但录得约2.7%的强劲周涨幅，为8月初以来的最高水平。交易员权衡了私人调查提供的美国经济增长放缓的迹象，因为美国政府关门导致公共部门活动停滞，官方就业数据延迟。此外，美国瘫痪持续时间的不确定性使投资者保持谨慎。在国内方面，最终PMI数据显示，德国私营部门9月份的增长低于此前的估计。在股市中，西门子能源（-2.1%）和德意志交易所（-2.1%，）领跌，而拜耳下跌1.3%。与此同时，Hensoldt（+1.9%）和Renk（+1.7%）等防御品牌削减了早期涨幅，而Rheinmetall下跌了0.9%。从好的方面来看，表现最好的包括默克（+2.6%）、巴斯夫（+1.5%）、大陆集团（+1.3%）和西门子医疗（+1.2%）。

Frankfurt's DAX turned slightly negative to close about 0.2% down at 24,386 on Friday, but booked a strong weekly gain of about 2.7%, which was the strongest since early August. Traders weighed signs of slowing growth in the US provided by private surveys, as the US shutdown stalled public-sector activity and delayed official jobs data. Also, uncertainty around the duration of the paralysis in the US kept investors cautious. On the domestic front, final PMI figures showed German private sector rose less than previously estimated in September. Among equities, Siemens Energy (-2.1%) and Deutsche Borse (-2.1%) led losses, while Bayer shed 1.3%. At the same time, defense names such as Hensoldt (+1.9%) and Renk (+1.7%) pared early gains, while Rheinmetall decreased by 0.9%. On the upside, top performers included Merck (+2.6%), BASF (+1.5%), Continental (+1.3%) and Siemens Healthineers (+1.2%).

德国10年期国债收益率保持在2.7%左右，投资者权衡了欧洲央行和美联储的不同政策路径。欧盟统计局数据显示，9月份欧元区通胀率升至2.2%，略高于欧洲央行的中点目标，而最近的采购经理人指数调查显示，该地区经济仍然疲软。欧洲央行副行长Luis de Guindos重申，目前的利率是“足够的”，将“逐次会议”做出决定，这表明短期内几乎没有放松。与此同时，预计美联储将在今年最后两次会议上连续降息25个基点，ADP数据显示私营部门就业意外下降，情绪受到抑制。在供应方面，德国周三出售的10年期德国国债需求疲软，投标覆盖率仅为1.2，与今年的最低水平持平。

The yield on the German 10-year Bund held around 2.7% as investors weighed the diverging policy paths of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. Eurostat data showed Eurozone inflation rose to 2.2% in September, slightly above the ECB’s mid-point target, while recent PMI surveys indicated the region’s economy remains sluggish. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos reaffirmed that current rates are “adequate” and that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting,” suggesting little near-term easing. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to deliver consecutive 25-basis-point cuts in its last two meetings of the year, with sentiment dampened by ADP data showing an unexpected drop in private-sector employment. On the supply side, Germany’s sale of 10-year Bunds on Wednesday drew tepid demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of just 1.2, matching the year’s lowest levels.

HCOB德国综合采购经理人指数从初步的52.4下调至2025年9月的52，但继续指向自2024年5月以来私营部门活动的最强劲增长，而8月份为50.5。服务业反弹（51.5比49.3），服务业实现八个月来最大涨幅，制造业接近停滞（49.5比49.8）。制造业产出增长强劲，服务业活动再次扩张，而新工作流入全面下降，表明需求疲软。这两个行业的就业人数都出现了收缩，这是自去年11月以来最大的整体下降，原因是产能压力不足，积压人数普遍下降。产出价格通胀加速至四个月高点，尽管投入成本的增长速度略慢。展望未来，商业预期保持不变，制造业信心减弱被服务业信心增强所抵消。

The HCOB Germany Composite PMI was revised lower to 52 in September 2025 from a preliminary of 52.4, but continued to point to the strongest growth in private sector activity since May 2024, compared to 50.5 in August. The services sector rebounded (51.5 vs 49.3) to book the strongest gain in the services sector in eight months and the manufacturing sector approached stagnation (49.5 vs 49.8). There was a stronger manufacturing output growth and a renewed expansion in services business activity while inflows of new work fell across the board in a sign of weaker demand. Employment contracted across both sectors, marking the steepest overall drop since last November, amid a lack of capacity pressures reflected in a broad-based fall in backlogs. Output price inflation accelerated to a four-month high, even as input costs rose at a slightly slower pace. Looking ahead, business expectations were unchanged, with weaker sentiment in manufacturing offset by improved confidence in services.

HCOB德国服务业采购经理人指数从初步的52.5大幅下调至2025年9月的51.5，但与8月的49.3相比有所改善。最新数据显示，服务业出现温和反弹，实现了八个月来最快的增长，但仍低于长期平均水平。然而，由于国际需求疲软，新订单连续第二个月下降，但速度有所放缓。与此同时，该行业出现了五年多来最大的就业下降。最新数据还突显出，运营支出持续飙升，主要归因于工资，产出价格通胀进一步高于长期平均水平。展望未来，在经济改善的希望推动下，服务提供商对未来一年的活动前景表示乐观。商业预期略有上升，达到2024年5月以来的最高点。

The HCOB Germany Services PMI was revised sharply down to 51.5 in September 2025 from a preliminary of 52.5, but marking an improvement from August's 49.3. The latest data signaled a modest rebound in the services sector, achieving its quickest growth in eight months, yet remaining below the long-term average. Nevertheless, new orders declined for a second consecutive month, though at a softer pace, weighed down by weaker international demand. Meanwhile, the sector recorded its sharpest employment fall in more than five years. The latest data also highlighted a sustained surge in operating expenses, largely attributed to wages, with output price inflation rising further above its long-run average. Looking forward, service providers expressed a positive outlook for activity in the year ahead, driven by hopes of an economic improvement. Business expectations rose slightly, hitting their highest point since May 2024.