泰国10年期国债 (Thailand10Y) 加自选

泰国商业信心指数从8月份的47.5升至2025年9月的48.0。这一改善是由于对投资的乐观情绪增强，从8月份的51.3上升到52.7。此外，对生产（48.8比47.6）、整体订单（47.4比46.5）和出口条件（47.0比45.8）的评估变得不那么悲观。另一方面，对业绩（47.2比48.5）和就业（49.0比49.4）的信心减弱。展望未来，9月份三个月前瞻性商业信心指数从前一个月的51.1升至7个月高点52。

Thailand's business confidence indicator rose to 48.0 in September 2025 from 47.5 in August. The improvement was driven by stronger optimism toward investment, which increased to 52.7 from 51.3 in August. Moreover, assessments became less pessimistic for production (48.8 vs 47.6), overall order books (47.4 vs 46.5), and export conditions (47.0 vs 45.8). On the other hand, sentiment weakened for performance (47.2 vs 48.5) and employment (49.0 vs 49.4). Looking ahead, the three-month forward-looking business sentiment index rose to a seven-month high of 52 in September from 51.1 in the previous month.

泰国央行新任行长Vitai Ratanakorn表示，他将推行宽松的货币政策，以支持长期增长，同时保护央行免受政治影响。维泰周三上任，外界猜测，由于美国关税和泰铢走强对出口导向型增长的风险，他将采取温和立场。“我不会说我非常鸽派，”他告诉彭博新闻社。“我更喜欢宽松的货币政策来支持可持续增长。”分析师预计，他10月8日的第一个政策决定可能会降息25至50个基点。维泰的目标是与政府密切合作，承认政府无法独自应对所有经济挑战，但强调他将保持银行的独立性。他的做法出台之际，泰国经济在经历了强劲的上半年后预计将放缓，惠誉和穆迪在4月选举前的政治不确定性中将该国的前景下调至负面。

New Bank of Thailand Governor Vitai Ratanakorn said he will pursue an accommodative monetary policy to support long-term growth while safeguarding the central bank from political influence. Vitai took office on Wednesday amid speculation he would adopt a dovish stance due to risks to export-led growth from U.S. tariffs and a stronger baht. “I would not say I am very dovish,” he told Bloomberg News. “I prefer accommodative monetary policy to support sustainable growth.” Analysts expect his first policy decision on Oct. 8 could see a rate cut between 25 and 50bps. Vitai aims to work closely with the government, acknowledging it cannot tackle all economic challenges alone, but emphasized he will maintain the bank’s independence. His approach comes as Thailand’s economy is expected to slow after a strong first half, and Fitch and Moody’s have downgraded the country’s outlook to negative amid political uncertainty ahead of elections by April.

标准普尔全球泰国制造业采购经理人指数从8月份的52.7升至2025年9月的54.6，标志着连续第五个月增长，也是自2023年5月以来的最快增速。在业务发展努力和潜在需求改善的支持下，新订单和产量均以2023年5月以来的最高速度增长。然而，需求增长仅限于国内市场，因为新的出口订单连续第二个月下降，并且是自3月以来的最快速度。为了应对产量和新订单的增加，企业以一年多来最快的速度增加了采购活动。就业人数上升，创造就业机会达到一年来的最高水平。在价格方面，投入成本连续第三个月下降，降幅为四个月来最大，主要原因是供应商折扣。因此，销售价格自3月以来首次小幅下跌。展望未来，商业信心改善至近两年半以来的最高水平。

The S&P Global Thailand Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.6 in September 2025, up from 52.7 in August, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth and the fastest pace since May 2023. Both new orders and output increased at their strongest rates since May 2023, supported by business development efforts and improved underlying demand.However, demand growth was limited to the domestic market, as new export orders declined for the second consecutive month, and at the fastest rate since March. In response to rising output and new orders, firms increased their purchasing activity at the fastest pace in over a year. Employment rose, with job creation hitting its strongest pace in a year. On prices, input costs fell for the third consecutive month and at the steepest rate in four months, mainly due to supplier discounts. As a result, selling prices dropped modestly for the first time since March. Looking ahead, business sentiment improved to its highest level in nearly two-and-a-half years.

泰国在2025年8月的经常账户赤字为15亿美元，而去年同期为17亿美元的盈余。这一逆转主要是由于贸易顺差大幅下降，从一年前的28亿美元收窄至8亿美元，进口增长了14.7%，而出口增长了5.5%。此外，服务、初级收入和二级收入的缺口从2024年8月的13亿美元大幅扩大到23亿美元。

Thailand recorded a current account deficit of USD 1.5 billion in August 2025, shifting from a surplus of USD 1.7 billion in the same month of the previous year. The reversal was largely due to a sharply softer trade surplus, which narrowed to USD 0.8 billion from USD 2.8 billion a year earlier, with imports climbing by 14.7%, while exports rising at a softer pace of 5.5%. In addition, the shortfall in services, primary income, and secondary income widened significantly to USD 2.3 billion from USD 1.3 billion in August 2024.