台湾(中国)10年期国债 (Taiwan10Y) 加自选

台湾正在探索与美国建立高科技战略伙伴关系，旨在促进双边投资，同时寻求降低20%的出口关税。主持会谈的副总理程立秋周四对通过“台湾模式”达成共识表示乐观，该模式侧重于在不转移供应链的情况下扩大美国产能。她将该模式描述为出口信贷担保和产业集群联合发展支持的“产业投资规划”。程还澄清说，据报道，美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克提出的芯片生产方案“不是台湾会同意的”，谈判期间从未讨论过。

Taiwan is exploring a high-tech strategic partnership with the U.S., aiming to boost bilateral investment while seeking to reduce the 20% tariff on its exports. Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun, leading the talks, expressed optimism on Thursday about reaching a consensus through a “Taiwan model” that focuses on expanding U.S. production capacity without relocating supply chains. She described the model as “industrial investment planning” supported by export credit guarantees and joint development of industrial clusters. Cheng also clarified that a reported 50-50 chip production proposal by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was “not something Taiwan would agree to” and was never discussed during negotiations.

标普全球台湾制造业PMI从8月的47.4降至2025年9月的46.8，表明商业状况更快、更稳定地恶化，并将当前的低迷期延长至7个月。产出和新订单均大幅收缩，由于全球需求疲软和贸易政策的不确定性，对美国、欧洲、日本和中国的销售额下降。新出口订单以两年来最快的速度下降，同时企业缩减了采购活动并减少了库存。就业人数也连续第十三个月下降，反映出产能过剩和工作量减少。在价格方面，在原材料价格上涨的推动下，投入成本通胀在2025年加速至迄今为止的最高水平，尽管制造商为了获得新业务而保持销售价格大致不变。展望未来，市场情绪仍然悲观，由于全球需求担忧，对未来产出的信心是过去两年中最弱的。

The S&P Global Taiwan Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.8 in September 2025 from 47.4 in August, signalling a quicker and solid deterioration in business conditions and extending the current downturn to seven months. Both output and new orders contracted at sharper rates, with sales to the US, Europe, Japan and China falling amid muted global demand and uncertainty over trade policy. New export orders fell at one of the fastest rates in two years, while firms scaled back purchasing activity and reduced inventories. Employment also declined for the thirteenth straight month, reflecting spare capacity and weaker workloads. On prices, input cost inflation accelerated to the strongest level so far in 2025, driven by higher raw material prices, though manufacturers kept selling prices broadly unchanged in efforts to secure new business. Looking ahead, sentiment remained pessimistic, with confidence around future output among the weakest in the past two years due to global demand concerns.

台湾消费者信心指数从8月份的63.31升至2025年9月的64.69，为2023年4月以来的最低水平。这是自5月以来的最高读数，这是由于人们对股票投资时机的看法急剧改善（8月份为51.68比31.20）。然而，其他子指数有所减弱：耐用品购买预期从94.53降至90.70，价格水平前景从30.72降至29.95，家庭财务状况从75.15降至72.54，国内经济前景从79.17降至76.18，就业机会从69.12降至67.07。

Taiwan’s consumer confidence index rose to 64.69 in September 2025, up from 63.31 in August, which was the lowest level since April 2023. It marked the highest reading since May, driven by a sharp improvement in perceptions of the timing for stock investment (51.68 vs 31.20 in August). However, other sub-indexes weakened: expectations for durable goods purchases fell to 90.70 from 94.53, price level outlook declined to 29.95 from 30.72, household financial conditions dropped to 72.54 from 75.15, domestic economic outlook slipped to 76.18 from 79.17, and employment opportunities eased to 67.07 from 69.12.

2025年8月，台湾零售额同比增长0.4%，结束了连续四个月的下降，并从7月3.6%的下降中反弹。复苏主要是由于文化娱乐用品在专卖店（9.2%对7月的7.6%）和百货商店（2.9%对0.8%）的销售增长加快，同时汽车和摩托车（-4.5%对-20.2%）、通信设备和家用电器（-1.5%对-3.7%）、燃料和相关产品（-7.2%对-8.8%）以及家用电器和专卖店商品（-0.6%对-2.3%）的下降放缓。相比之下，零售业（非商店或摊位）（4.5%对5.0%）、电子购物和邮购公司（6.0%对7.1%）和其他零售业（7.0%对7.3%）的销售额增长速度较慢，而建筑材料（-1.3%对3.8%）则扭转了下降趋势。按月计算，8月份零售活动增长0.8%，从7月份0.4%的跌幅反弹。

Retail sales in Taiwan edged up 0.4% year-on-year in August 2025, ending a four-month consecutive decline and rebounding from a 3.6% drop in July. The recovery was mainly driven by faster sales growth in cultural and recreation goods in specialized stores (9.2% vs 7.6% in July) and general merchandise stores (2.9% vs 0.8%), alongside slower declines in automobiles and motorcycles (-4.5% vs -20.2%), communication equipment and household appliances (-1.5% vs -3.7%), fuel and related products (-7.2% vs -8.8%), and household appliances and goods in specialized stores (-0.6% vs -2.3%). In contrast, sales rose at a slower pace in retail trade not in stores or stalls (4.5% vs 5.0%), electronic shopping and mail-order houses (6.0% vs 7.1%), and other retail sales (7.0% vs 7.3%), while construction materials (-1.3% vs 3.8%) reversed to a decline. On a monthly basis, retail activity rose 0.8% in August, rebounding from a 0.4% drop in July.