菲律宾10年期国债 (Philippine10Y) 加自选

10月下旬，菲律宾比索跌至每美元59比索的历史低点，在央行发出将容忍进一步贬值的信号后，继续其看跌趋势。菲律宾中央银行表示，比索是由市场力量引导的，主要干预是为了平滑通胀驱动的波动，而不是抑制日常波动。这些言论表明，与其他干预以支撑本国货币的亚洲经济体不同，央行更愿意让比索贬值。10月初，BSP意外降息，并发出信号称12月借贷成本可能再降低25个基点，2026年可能还会进一步降息，这进一步加剧了压力。有关大规模滥用用于防洪项目的数十亿美元的指控也给菲律宾的增长前景蒙上了阴影，进一步削弱了投资者的信心。

The Philippine peso weakened to a record low of PHP 59 per dollar in late October, continuing its bearish trend after signals from the central bank that it would tolerate further depreciation. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said the peso is guided by market forces, intervening mainly to smooth inflation-driven swings rather than curb daily volatility. The remarks suggest the central bank is more willing to let the peso weaken, unlike other Asian economies that have intervened to prop up their currencies. Pressure was further compounded after the BSP’s unexpected interest rate cut in early October and its signal that borrowing costs could be reduced by another 25 bps in December, with additional cuts possible in 2026. Allegations of widespread misuse of billions of dollars intended for flood-control projects have also clouded the Philippines’ growth outlook, further undermining investor confidence.

2025年9月，菲律宾政府的预算赤字从去年同期的2733亿菲律宾比索缩小到2481亿菲律宾比索。政府收入同比增长10.88%，达到2817亿菲律宾比索，超过支出增长5.18%，达到5298亿菲律宾比索。来自国内税收局（4.7%）和海关局（5.3%）的强劲税收支持了这一改善，而非税收收入下降了65.8%，至158亿菲律宾比索。与此同时，政府支出下降7.5%，至5298亿菲律宾比索。截至今年9月，累计赤字为1.12万亿菲律宾比索，远低于一年前9702亿菲律宾比索修订后的全年目标1.56万亿菲律宾比索。

The Philippine government’s budget deficit narrowed to PHP 248.1 billion in September 2025 from PHP 273.3 billion in the same month last year. Government revenues grew 10.88% year-on-year to PHP 281.7 billion, outpacing a 5.18% rise in expenditures to PHP 529.8 billion. Strong tax collections from the Bureau of Internal Revenue (4.7%) and the Bureau of Customs (5.3%) supported the improvement, while non-tax revenues fell 65.8% to PHP 15.8 billion. Meanwhile, government expenditures fell 7.5% to PHP 529.8 billion. Year-to-date through September, the cumulative deficit stood at PHP 1.12 trillion, well within the revised full-year target of PHP 1.56 trillion, from PHP 970.2 billion a year earlier.

2025年8月，菲律宾银行的现金汇款从去年同期的28.9亿美元增至29.8亿美元，同比增长3.2%。这一增长主要是由于陆地工人（3%）和海上工人（3.8%）的汇款增加。1月至8月，现金汇款增长3.1%，达到229.1亿美元，主要得益于美国、新加坡和沙特阿拉伯的流入增加。按汇款来源国划分，美国仍然是最大的汇款来源，占汇款总额的40.4%，其次是新加坡（7.1%）、沙特阿拉伯（6.3%）、日本（4.9%）和英国（4.8%）。与此同时，8月份个人汇款（包括银行转账、非正式渠道和实物转账）增长至33.1亿美元，比去年同期的32亿美元增长3.2%。1月至8月的累计个人汇款达到255.1亿美元，也比2024年同期的247.4亿美元增长了3.1%。

Cash remittances coursed through banks in the Philippines rose by 3.2% year-on-year to USD 2.98 billion August 2025 from USD 2.89 billion in the same month last year. The increase was mainly driven by higher remittances from both land-based workers (3%) and sea-based workers (3.8%). From January to August, cash remittances advanced by 3.1% to USD 22.91 billion, primarily supported by increased inflows from the US, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia. By country of origin, the US remained the top source, accounting for 40.4% of total remittances, followed by Singapore (7.1%), Saudi Arabia (6.3%), Japan (4.9%), and the United Kingdom (4.8%). Meanwhile, personal remittances—which include bank transfers, informal channels, and in-kind transfers—grew to USD 3.31 billion in August, up 3.2% from USD 3.2 billion a year earlier. Cumulative personal remittances for January to August reached USD 25.51 billion, also marking a 3.1% gain from USD 24.74 billion in the same period in 2024.

2025年7月，菲律宾的外国直接投资净额（FDI）同比下降7.5%，至13亿美元。减少的主要原因是债务工具大幅下降（-39.4%）。与此同时，股本净流入（240.6%）和收益再投资（14.3%）的小幅增长缓和了这一减少。本月股本配售主要来自日本（60%）、美国（15%）和新加坡（5%），投资主要集中在批发和零售贸易（73%）、制造业（12%）和房地产（8%）。考虑到2025年前七个月，外国直接投资净额达到47亿美元，比上年同期大幅下降20%。

Net foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Philippines dropped by 7.5% year-on-year to USD 1.3 billion in July 2025. The decrease was mainly driven by a significant decline in debt instruments (-39.4%). Meanwhile, the reduction was tempered by a sharp increase recorded from net inflows in equity capital (240.6%) and a modest gain in reinvestment of earnings (14.3%). Equity capital placements during the month mainly originated from Japan (60%), the United States (15%), and Singapore (5%), with investments directed largely toward wholesale and retail trade (73%), manufacturing (12%), and real estate (8%). Considering the first seven months of 2025, net FDI reached USD 4.7 billion, sharply lower by 20% compared with the corresponding period of the previous year.