菲律宾10年期国债 (Philippine10Y) 加自选

标准普尔全球菲律宾制造业采购经理人指数从8月份的50.8降至2025年9月的49.9，进入收缩区间，尽管这是自3月份以来的第一次，也是四年多来的第三次。经济衰退反映了产量和新订单的再次下降，由于国内需求疲软、天气恶劣和大米进口限制，销售额下降。不过，外国订单有所改善，部分抵消了疲软。制造商增加了采购活动和投入品库存，但速度有所放缓，而成品库存因积压减少而下降。就业状况仍然低迷，尽管活动仍在进行，但就业增长的迹象很小。在价格方面，投入成本通胀从8月份的八个月高点有所缓解，但仍然是今年第二快的，导致销售价格仅小幅上涨。商业信心虽然略有减弱，但仍然是2024年底以来最强劲的，这得益于对未来销售强劲的预期。

The S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.9 in September 2025 from 50.8 in August, moving into contraction territory albeit only slightly for the first time since March and just the third time in over four years. The downturn reflected renewed declines in output and new orders, with sales falling amid weaker domestic demand, poor weather and rice import restrictions. Still, foreign orders improved, partly offsetting the weakness. Manufacturers raised purchasing activity and input stocks, though at a softer pace, while finished goods inventories fell as backlogs were reduced. Employment conditions remained subdued, with little sign of job growth despite ongoing activity. On prices, input cost inflation eased from August’s eight month high but was still the second fastest this year, leading to only marginal rises in selling prices. Business confidence, while slightly softer, remained among the strongest since late 2024, supported by expectations of stronger sales ahead.

周二，菲律宾证券交易所指数下跌0.7%，收于5953点，连续七个交易日下跌，这是自2024年12月以来最长的跌幅，也是自4月7日以来的最低收盘点位。当地市场表现不如大多数亚洲同行，因为对政府官员的腐败指控继续削弱投资者情绪，引发外国资金外流。比索兑美元的疲软进一步增加了股市的压力。从外部来看，美国政府可能关闭仍然是市场的一个悬而未决的问题，因为交易员正在权衡关键就业数据延迟发布的可能性，这可能会使美联储下个月的政策决定复杂化。在企业方面，几只蓝筹股拖累指数下跌，包括阿亚拉地产（-3.6%）、SM Prime Holdings（-1.3%）、BDO Unibank（-1.6%）、MBTC（-1.6%”）和JG Summit Holdings（-2.5%）。9月份，PSEi连续第三个月下跌3.3%，使其季度跌幅达到6.5%。

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index fell 0.7% to close at 5,953 on Tuesday, extending its losing streak to seven sessions—the longest run of declines since December 2024—and marking its lowest close since April 7. The local market underperformed most Asian peers as corruption allegations on government officials continued to erode investor sentiment and triggered foreign outflows. The peso’s weakness against the US dollar added further pressure on the bourse. Externally, a potential US government shutdown remains an overhang on the market as traders weigh the likelihood of a delay in the release of key jobs data that could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy decision next month. On the corporate front, several blue-chip stocks dragged the index lower, including Ayala Land (-3.6%), SM Prime Holdings (-1.3%), BDO Unibank (-1.6%), MBTC (-1.6%), and JG Summit Holdings (-2.5%). For September, the PSEi shed 3.3%, its third straight month of losses, bringing its quarterly decline to 6.5%.

2025年8月，菲律宾出口同比增长4.6%，达到71亿美元，低于上个月上调后的17.6%的增长率。这标志着自2024年12月以来出境出货量的最低增长，受电子设备和零部件（-18.5%）、化学品（-18.1%）和其他制成品（-37.6%）销售下降的支撑。另一方面，黄金（153.4%）、新鲜香蕉（59.9%）、椰子油（41.5%）、机械和运输设备（40.5%）和其他矿产品（41.2%）的销售额有所增长。按目的地划分，香港仍然是最大的市场（16.9%的份额），出货量增长了26.4%。出口还增加到德国（17.9%）、台湾（16.9%）、马来西亚（10.3%）、日本（4.7%）和新加坡（4.6%）。1月至8月，出口总额为557亿美元，同比增长12.6%。

Philippine exports rose 4.6% year-on-year to USD 7.1 billion in August 2025, slowing from an upwardly revised 17.6% growth in the previous month. This marked the lowest growth of outbound shipments since December 2024, supported by decline in the sales of electronic equipment and parts (-18.5%), chemicals (-18.1%), and other manufactured goods (-37.6%). On the other hand, sales increased for gold (153.4%), fresh bananas (59.9%), coconut oil (41.5%), machinery and transport equipment (40.5%), and other mineral products (41.2%). By destination, HongKong remained the top market (16.9% share), with shipments up 26.4%. Exports also rose to Germany (17.9%), Taiwan (16.9%) and Malaysia (10.3%), Japan (4.7%) and Singapore (4.6%). From January to August period, total exports increased 12.6% to USD 55.70 billion compared to the same period last year.

2025年8月，菲律宾的进口额同比下降4.9%，至106亿美元，低于上个月向上修正的5.8%的增长率。这标志着自5月以来进口首次下降，因为矿物燃料、润滑油和相关材料（-34.2%）、谷物和谷物制剂（-19.4%）、运输设备（-6.2%）和杂项制成品（-0.7%）的采购量下降。相反，电信设备和电机（25.6%）、金属制品（21.9%）和电子产品（11.7%）的入境出货量有所增加。在主要贸易伙伴中，马来西亚（-19.4%）、印度尼西亚（-13.8%）、日本（-12.2%）、韩国（-8.3%）和越南（-3.3%）的入境人数大幅下降。同时，来自台湾（33.8%）和中国（14.1%）的进口增加。考虑到1月至8月，进口比去年同期增长5.1%。

Imports to the Philippines fell by 4.9% year-on-year to USD 10.6 billion in August 2025, slipping from an upwardly revised 5.8% growth in the previous month. This marked the first drop in imports since May, as purchases declined for mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (-34.2%), cereals and cereal preparations (-19.4%), transport equipment (-6.2%), and miscellaneous manufactured articles (-0.7%). Conversely, inbound shipments increased for telecommunications equipment and electrical machinery (25.6%), metal products (21.9%), and electronic products (11.7%). Among top trading partners, arrivals slumped from Malaysia (-19.4%), Indonesia (-13.8%), Japan (-12.2%), Korea (-8.3%), and Vietnam (-3.3%). Meanwhile, imports went up from Taiwan (33.8%) and China (14.1%). Considering January to August, imports were 5.1% higher compared to the same period last year.