巴基斯坦10年期国债 (Pakistan10Y) 加自选

惠誉评级于2025年4月15日将巴基斯坦的长期外币发行人违约评级从“CCC+”上调至“B-”，前景稳定，理由是财政整顿有所改善，外部账户趋于稳定，宏观经济政策管理更加有力。该机构强调，人们对巴基斯坦在国际货币基金组织支持的改革计划下保持进展的能力越来越有信心，包括减少财政赤字和改善政策纪律的努力。全球油价下跌也缓解了外部账户的压力。惠誉预计，紧缩的经济政策将支持外汇储备的复苏，并管理巨大的外部融资需求。尽管全球贸易紧张局势带来了风险，但巴基斯坦对出口和外部市场融资的低依赖提供了一些保护。标准普尔对巴基斯坦的信用评级为CCC+，前景稳定。穆迪对巴基斯坦的信用评级最后被定为Caa2，前景乐观。

Fitch Ratings upgraded Pakistan's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating to 'B-' from 'CCC+' on April 15, 2025, with a stable outlook, citing improved fiscal consolidation, a stabilizing external account, and stronger macroeconomic policy management. The agency highlighted increased confidence in Pakistan’s ability to maintain progress under its IMF-supported reform program, including efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit and improve policy discipline. Lower global oil prices have also eased pressure on the external account. Fitch expects tight economic policies to support reserve recovery and manage large external financing needs. While global trade tensions pose risks, Pakistan’s low reliance on exports and external market financing offers some protection. Standard & Poor's credit rating for Pakistan stands at CCC+ with stable outlook. Moody's credit rating for Pakistan was last set at Caa2 with positive outlook.

2025年3月，巴基斯坦的汇款达到创纪录的41亿美元，年增长率为37%，这表明在国际货币基金组织的支持下，经济正在复苏。主要来源是沙特阿拉伯（9.87亿美元）、阿联酋（8.42亿美元），英国（6.84亿美元）和美国（4.2亿美元）。强劲的汇款增长反映出，随着巴基斯坦在2022年避免了国际货币基金组织贷款违约后趋于稳定，人们的信心有所提高。央行将25财年的汇款预测从360亿美元上调至380亿美元，并预计到6月外汇储备将达到140亿美元。美元需求的减少和对非正式货币交易的打击有助于稳定卢比，过去一年仅下跌0.85%。该国本财政年度迄今还报告了经常账户盈余。25财年7月至3月的汇款总额从去年同期的210亿美元增长了33%，达到280亿美元。

Pakistan’s remittances hit a record $4.1 billion in March 2025, a 37% yearly increase, signaling economic recovery helped by IMF support. Key sources were Saudi Arabia ($987 million), UAE ($842 million), UK ($684 million), and the US ($420 million). Strong remittance growth reflects improved confidence as Pakistan stabilizes after avoiding default in 2022 with IMF loans. The central bank raised its remittance forecast for FY25 to $38 billion (from $36 billion) and expects forex reserves to reach $14 billion by June. Reduced dollar demand and a crackdown on informal currency trading have helped steady the rupee, down just 0.85% over the past year. The country also reported a current account surplus so far this fiscal year. Total remittances for July–March FY25 are up 33% to $28 billion from $21 billion in the same period last year.

2025年3月，巴基斯坦批发价格同比下降1.6%，较上月0.7%的跌幅进一步下滑。这标志着批发价格连续第二个交易日下跌，因为农业、林业和渔业（2月份为-6.3%对-5.4%）、矿石/矿产、电力、天然气和水（-8.8%对-5%）以及其他可运输商品（-3.2%对-2.2%）的通货紧缩加剧。此外，金属产品、机械和设备的价格放缓（1.9%对2.2%）。与此同时，食品、饮料、烟草、纺织品和皮革制品的价格加速上涨（7%对6.4%）。与上月相比，批发价格上涨了0.3%。

Wholesale prices in Pakistan fell 1.6% year-on-year in March 2025, slipping further from a 0.7% decrease in the previous month. This marked the second consecutive session of falling wholesale prices, as deflation worsened for agriculture forestry and fishery (-6.3% vs -5.4% in February), ores/minerals, electricity, gas and water (-8.8% vs -5%), and other transportable goods (-3.2% vs -2.2%). In addition, prices slowed for metal product, machinery and equipment (1.9% vs 2.2%). Meanwhile, prices accelerated for food, beverages, tobacco, textiles and leather products (7% vs 6.4%). Compared to the previous month, wholesale prices rose 0.3%.

巴基斯坦的年通货膨胀率从上个月的2015年低点1.5%连续第五个月降至2025年3月的0.7%。这是自1968年9月以来的最低水平，因为食品和非酒精饮料的通货紧缩加剧（-5.1%对2月份的-4.2%），特别是易腐食品（-30.2%）。此外，交通（-1.2%对-1.1%）、住房和公用事业（-2.2%对-0.6%）的通货紧缩仍在继续。此外，服装和鞋类（13.5%对13.8%）、家具和家用设备维护（3.7%对4.5%）、健康（13.8%对14.3%）以及娱乐和文化（7.7%对8.4%）的价格有所放缓。与此同时，酒精饮料和烟草（7.5%对6.7%）、教育（11.9%对10.9%）以及杂项商品和服务（13.4%对12.8%）的价格加速上涨。按月度计算，2025年3月消费者价格指数上涨0.9%，从前一个月0.8%的跌幅反弹。

The annual inflation rate in Pakistan eased for the fifth consecutive month to 0.7% in March 2025 from a 2015-low of 1.5% in the previous month. This marked the lowest reading since September 1968, as deflation worsened for food & non-alcoholic beverages (-5.1% vs -4.2% in February), particularly perishable food items (-30.2%). In addition, deflation continued for transport (-1.2% vs -1.1%) and housing and utilities (-2.2% vs -0.6%). Moreover, prices slowed for clothing and footwear (13.5% vs 13.8%), furnishing and household equipment maintenance (3.7% vs 4.5%), health (13.8% vs 14.3%), and recreation and culture (7.7% vs 8.4%). Meanwhile, prices accelerated for alcoholic beverages and tobacco (7.5% vs 6.7%), education (11.9% vs 10.9%), and miscellaneous goods and services (13.4% vs 12.8%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.9% in March 2025, rebounding from a 0.8% fall in the previous month.