日本5年期国债 (Japan5Y) 加自选

美元因收益率冲击而下跌，日元打破传统。上周外汇市场没有单一的主导主题。相反，价格走势反映了跨资产差异的混合。

Dollar Drift With Yield Shock, Yen Breaks Tradition.There was no single, dominant theme in currency markets last week. Instead, price action reflected a mix of cross-asset divergences.

美元/日元每周预测：随着套利解除风险的增加，基础脆弱。美元/日元本周开始时基础不稳定，因为日元流动增强、风险情绪脆弱和套利头寸压力上升相互碰撞。由于传统的宏观驱动因素只提供了有限的清晰度，交易员可能需要从其他地方寻找方向。

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast: Fragile footing as carry unwind risks grow.USD/JPY starts the week on unstable footing as strengthening yen flows, fragile risk sentiment and rising pressure on carry positions collide. With traditional macro drivers offering only limited clarity, traders may need to look elsewhere for direction.

国际展望周：经济增长反弹，日本央行继续加息。尽管我们和普遍预期在第三季度环比年化收缩2.3%后，2025年第四季度将出现反弹，但我们预测复苏温和，为1.2%，而普遍预期为1.6%。第三季度的收缩主要是由于净出口疲软，此前在预期的美国关税之前，出货量被提前至第二季度。

International Week Ahead: Growth Rebound to Keep BoJ Hikes in Play.While both we and consensus expect a rebound in Q4-2025 following the quarter-over-quarter annualized 2.3% contraction in Q3, we forecast a milder recovery of 1.2% versus 1.6% for consensus. The contraction in Q3 was driven largely by weaker net exports after shipments were pulled forward into Q2 ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs.

美元/日元走软，美国CPI疲软限制了美元上涨，日元需求保持坚挺。美元/日元走软，美国CPI疲软限制了美元上涨，日元需求保持坚挺

USD/JPY eases as softer US CPI caps Dollar gains, Yen demand stays firm.USD/JPY eases as softer US CPI caps Dollar gains, Yen demand stays firm