日本央行行长上田和夫表示,再次加息的条件正在形成,理由是工资增长加速和劳动力市场紧缩。植田在周六美联储杰克逊霍尔研讨会上表示,日本长期工资停滞的根源在于“根深蒂固的通缩预期”,但新冠肺炎后的全球通胀扰乱了这种平衡。“值得注意的是,工资增长正从大企业向中小企业蔓延,”他说,并补充道,“除非出现重大的负面需求冲击,否则劳动力市场预计将保持紧张,并继续对工资施加上行压力。”上田指出,劳动力流动性的增加和人口驱动的短缺是推动企业提高工资的关键力量。继去年退出超宽松政策后,日本央行于1月将利率上调至0.5%,7月保持稳定,并上调了通胀前景,这加剧了人们对今年晚些时候再次加息的预期。
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that conditions for another rate hike are taking shape, citing accelerating wage growth and a tightening labor market. Speaking at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium on Saturday, Ueda said Japan’s long stretch of stagnant pay was rooted in “entrenched deflationary expectations,” but global inflation post-COVID disrupted that equilibrium. “Notably, wage growth is spreading from large enterprises to small and medium enterprises,” he said, adding that “barring a major negative demand shock, the labor market is expected to remain tight and continue to exert upward pressure on wages.” Ueda pointed to rising labor mobility and demographic-driven shortages as key forces pushing firms to raise pay. Following its exit from ultra-loose policy last year, the BoJ hiked rates to 0.5% in January, held steady in July, and upgraded its inflation outlook—fueling expectations for another increase later this year.