日本1个月期国债 (Japan1M) 加自选

日元是一项引人注目的交易，但也有代价。随着谨慎的央行、贸易战和持有日元的高昂成本使日元成为今年最受欢迎的交易之一，全球投资者正在解除对日元迅速升值的押注。

Japan's yen is a compelling trade but comes at a cost.Global investors are unwinding their wagers on Japan's yen rising quickly as a cautious central bank, a trade war and the prohibitive cost of holding the currency sour one of the year's most popular trades.

日本央行高田认为日本将迎来“真正的黎明”，敦促对关税保持谨慎，但不要悲观。

BoJ's Takata sees “True Dawn” for Japan, urges caution but not pessimism on tariffs.

日本央行董事会成员高田朝纪在周四的一次演讲中表示，在暂停评估美国关税对日本经济的影响后，日本央行应恢复加息。他指出：“我的观点是，日本央行目前只是暂停其政策性加息周期。”他补充说，在一段时间的“观望”之后，日本央行应该放弃其超宽松政策。高田表示，在强劲的企业盈利、劳动力短缺和工资上涨的推动下，日本正接近2%的通胀目标。尽管高田预计，尽管特朗普总统于4月1日宣布了全面的关税，但这一前景将“大致”保持不变，他强调需要监控风险。“鉴于美国各种政策的不确定性仍然很高，日本央行必须以更灵活的方式执行货币政策，而不能过于悲观。”他还警告说，如果美联储恢复降息，可能会降低日本央行的政策灵活性。尽管如此，高田没有看到类似于过去危机的美国经济衰退的迹象。

The Bank of Japan should resume rate hikes after a temporary pause to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan’s economy, board member Hajime Takata said in a speech Thursday. “My view is that the BoJ is currently only pausing its policy interest rate hike cycle,” he noted, adding the bank should shift away from its ultra-loose policy after a period of "wait and see". Takata said Japan is nearing the 2% inflation target, helped by strong corporate earnings, labor shortages, and rising wages. While he expects this outlook to remain “broadly” unchanged despite President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 1, Takata stressed the need to monitor risks. “Given uncertainties regarding various U.S. policies remain high, the BoJ must conduct monetary policy in a more flexible manner without being too pessimistic." He also warned that if the Fed resumes rate cuts, it could reduce the BoJ’s policy flexibility. Still, Takata sees no signs of a U.S. recession akin to past crises.

欧元/日元稳定在169.50左右，由于日本央行对加息持谨慎态度，有上行潜力。欧元/日元在上一交易日近期上涨后保持稳定，周四亚洲时间交易在169.50左右。货币交叉可能会重新站稳脚跟，因为日元（JPY）可能面临挑战，因为日本央行（BoJ）对解除其超宽松政策持谨慎态度，迫使投资者推迟对早期加息的预期。

EUR/JPY steadies around 169.50, with upside potential due to BoJ's caution on rate hikes.EUR/JPY remains steady following recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 169.50 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross may regain its ground as the Japanese Yen (JPY) may face challenges due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) caution on unwinding its ultra-loose policy, forcing investors to delay their expectations for early interest rate hikes.