以色列10年期国债 (Israel10Y) 加自选

2025年9月，以色列的贸易逆差基本保持不变，为31.7亿美元，而去年同期为31.6亿美元。进口下降0.8%，至78.6亿美元，受原材料和燃料下降的拖累，而出口下降1.4%，至47亿美元，受到制造业和采矿业的拖累。2025年前九个月，贸易逆差从2024年同期的239.7亿美元扩大到289.3亿美元，因为进口急剧增加，出口略有下降。

Israel’s trade deficit remained largely unchanged at USD 3.17 billion in September 2025, compared with USD 3.16 billion a year earlier. Imports fell 0.8% to USD 7.86 billion, weighed down by declines in raw materials and fuels, while exports slipped 1.4% to USD 4.70 billion, dragged by manufacturing and mining sectors. For the first nine months of 2025, the trade deficit widened to USD 28.93 billion, up from USD 23.97 billion over the same period in 2024, as a sharp increase in imports was accompanied by a slight decrease in exports.

根据第三项估计，以色列经济在2025年第二季度以3.9%的年率萎缩，比二读报告的4.0%略有改善，扭转了第一季度3.1%的增长。这一下降标志着该国自2023年第四季度以来首次出现季度收缩，反映了持续的“阿姆-卡尔维”冲突对经济的影响。家庭消费下降4.8%，政府支出小幅下降1.0%，固定资本形成暴跌12.8%，而净贸易是拖累因素，尽管进口增长1.1%，但商品和服务出口下降5.7%。与2024年上半年相比，以色列的国内生产总值在半年内增长了0.9%。

Israel’s economy shrank at an annualized rate of 3.9% in the second quarter of 2025, according to a third estimate, slightly improving from a 4.0% contraction reported in the second reading and reversing the 3.1% growth recorded in Q1. The decline marks the country’s first quarterly contraction since Q4 2023, reflecting the economic fallout from the ongoing “Am Kalvi” conflict. Household consumption fell 4.8%, government spending edged down 1.0%, and fixed capital formation plummeted 12.8%, while net trade was a drag as exports of goods and services dropped 5.7%, despite imports rising 1.1%. On a half-year basis, Israel’s GDP expanded 0.9% compared with the first half of 2024.

2025年9月，以色列的年通货膨胀率降至2.5%，为2024年2月以来的最低水平，从前一个月的2.9%有所缓解，低于2.8%的市场预期。这一放缓主要是由于住房（4.2%对8月份的4.4%）、食品（0.9%对1.9%）、教育、文化和娱乐（2.8%对3.8%）、住宅维护（3.1%对3.3%）和健康（3.0%对3.4%）的价格增长放缓，以及家具和家用设备的进一步下降（-2.1%对-1.5%）。抵消经济放缓的是交通和通信的快速增长（2.5%对2.3%），而服装和鞋类的下降（-5.9%对-6.7%）有所缓和。按月计算，9月份CPI下降0.6%，扭转了8月份0.7%的涨幅，略高于分析师预测的0.3%的跌幅。

Israel’s annual inflation slowed to 2.5% in September 2025, the lowest since February 2024, easing from 2.9% in the previous month and below market expectations of 2.8%. The moderation was largely driven by slower price growth in housing (4.2% vs 4.4% in August), food (0.9% vs 1.9%), education, culture and entertainment (2.8% vs 3.8%), dwelling maintenance (3.1% vs 3.3%), and health (3.0% vs 3.4%), along with a further decline in furniture and household equipment (-2.1% vs -1.5%). Offsetting the slowdown were faster increases in transportation and communication (2.5% vs 2.3%), while the decline in clothing and footwear (-5.9% vs -6.7%) moderated. On a monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.6% in September, reversing a 0.7% increase in August and slightly exceeding analysts’ estimates of a 0.3% decline.

自10月初以来，以色列谢克尔一直在走强，达到3.26美元兑1美元，这是自2022年8月以来的最高水平，此前以色列和哈马斯签署了旨在结束加沙两年冲突的协议的第一阶段。10月9日，以色列与哈马斯达成了释放人质协议，并将允许增加向加沙提供的人道主义援助。由美国、埃及、卡塔尔和土耳其斡旋的正在进行的谈判是基于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普公布的框架。预计在沙姆沙伊赫的会谈将继续，重点是加沙的重建和未来的治理。谢克尔走强也给了以色列央行更多放松货币政策的空间。上个月，央行连续第14次会议将基准利率维持在4.5%不变，理由是地缘政治的不确定性持续存在。与此同时，通货膨胀率降至2.9%，自2024年6月以来首次回到政府1%-3%的目标区间。

The Israeli shekel has been strengthening since the start of October, reaching 3.26 per USD, its highest level since August 2022, after Israel and Hamas signed the first phase of a deal aimed at ending the two-year conflict in Gaza. On October 9th, Israel reached a hostage-release agreement with Hamas and will allow an increase in humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza. The ongoing negotiations, brokered by the US, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, are based on a framework unveiled by US President Donald Trump. Talks in Sharm El-Sheikh are expected to continue, focusing on Gaza’s reconstruction and future governance. The stronger shekel also gives the Bank of Israel more room to ease monetary policy. Last month, the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5% for the 14th consecutive meeting, citing persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, inflation eased to 2.9%, returning to the government’s 1%–3% target range for the first time since June 2024.