印度尼西亚3个月期国债 (Indonesia3M) 加自选

周五，印尼盾兑美元汇率升至16600左右，这是8月贸易数据显示出口略高于预期后，印尼盾连续第三天下涨。与此同时，9月份年度通胀率升至2.65%的16个月高点，但仍保持在印尼央行1.5%-3.5%的目标范围内，有助于维持市场信心。财政部长Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa最近表示，如果央行继续协调，当地货币可能会进一步升值。本周，卢比有望实现三周来的首次单周上涨，尽管它仍然是2025年亚洲表现最差的新兴市场货币，在降息150个基点和进一步宽松的前景下下跌了约3%。与此同时，在8月份的致命抗议活动扰乱了投资者情绪之后，政治风险依然存在。在全球范围内，美元指数稳定在97.8附近，市场对美国政府部分停摆基本不屑一顾，认为其短期影响有限。

The Indonesian rupiah strengthened to around 16,600 per dollar on Friday, marking its third straight daily gain after August trade data showed exports modestly beat expectations. Meanwhile, the annual inflation rose to a 16-month high of 2.65% in September but stayed within Bank Indonesia’s 1.5%–3.5% target range, helping sustain market confidence. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said recently that the local currency could appreciate further with continued central bank coordination. For the week, the rupiah is on track for its first weekly advance in three, though it remains Asia’s weakest emerging-market performer in 2025, down roughly 3% amid 150 bps of rate cuts and prospects of further easing. Meantime, political risks linger, following deadly protests in August that rattled investor sentiment. Globally, the dollar index held steady near 97.8, with markets largely shrugging off the partial U.S. government shutdown, viewing its near-term impact as limited.

印尼投资部长Rosan Roeslani周三表示，印尼将与自由港麦克莫兰达成协议，授予当地合作伙伴PT Freeport Indonesia 12%的股份，但没有具体日期。国有矿业控股公司MIND ID已经拥有PT Freeport Indonesia 51%的股份，该公司经营着世界上最大的金矿和第二大铜矿格拉斯伯格。Roeslani补充说，12%的股份将是“免费的”。矿业部长Bahlil Lahadalia强调，需要延长自由港的采矿许可证，以便对未来的资源进行勘探。上周，在泥石流造成两名工人死亡后，自由港在格拉斯伯格宣布不可抗力。该公司预计，至少在2027年之前，运营可能不会恢复到事故前的水平。

Indonesia is set to finalize a deal with Freeport-McMoRan granting a local partner a 12% stake in PT Freeport Indonesia, the investment minister Rosan Roeslani said Wednesday, though no date was specified. The state mining holding company MIND ID already owns 51% of PT Freeport Indonesia, which operates Grasberg, the world’s largest gold and second-largest copper mine. The 12% stake will be “free of charge,” Roeslani added. Mining Minister Bahlil Lahadalia emphasized the need to extend Freeport’s mining permit to enable exploration of future resources. Last week, Freeport declared force majeure at Grasberg after mudslides killed two workers. The company expects operations may not return to pre-accident levels until at least 2027.

2025年8月，印尼的外国游客人数同比增长12.33%，达到150万人，比上个月的13.01%略有下降。主要客源市场包括马来西亚（21.71%）、新加坡（3.47%）、中国（11.57%）、日本（15.80%）、韩国（15.28%）、澳大利亚（1.30%）和英国（8.40%），而美国（-6.76%）和印度（-4.13%）的入境人数有所下降。1月至8月，总入境人数增长了10.38%，达到1004万人。政府的目标是在2025年吸引1400万至1600万外国游客，去年旅游业强劲复苏，增长19.1%，达到1390万人，这是疫情以来的最高水平，超过了950万至1430万的目标范围。

Foreign tourist arrivals in Indonesia rose 12.33% year-on-year to 1.50 million in August 2025, slightly easing from a 13.01% increase in the previous month. Key source markets included Malaysia (21.71%), Singapore (3.47%), China (11.57%), Japan (15.80%), South Korea (15.28%), Australia (1.30%), and the UK (8.40%), while arrivals fell from the U.S. (-6.76%) and India (-4.13%). In January–August, total arrivals climbed 10.38% to 10.04 million. The government is targeting 14–16 million foreign visitors in 2025, after tourism recovered strongly last year with a 19.1% jump to 13.9 million—the highest since the pandemic and above the 9.5–14.3 million target range.

2025年9月，印度尼西亚的年通货膨胀率从8月的2.31%加速至2.65%。这是自2024年5月以来的最高通胀率，但仍在央行1.5%至3.5%的目标范围内。食品（5.01%对3.99%）和健康（8月份2.01%对1.91%）的通货膨胀率都在加速。与此同时，教育（1.15%对1.43%）、服装（0.79%对0.81%）、住宿和餐馆（1.80%对1.85%）、家具（0.30%对0.42%）和住房（1.64%对1.65%）的价格有所放缓。此外，交通（-0.15%对-0.29%）和通信（-0.31%对-0.33%）的价格下跌。核心通胀率（不包括管理和波动的食品价格）在9月份小幅加速至2.19%，高于8月份的11个月低点2.17%。按月计算，消费者价格指数（CPI）上涨了0.21%，高于市场预测的0.13%的涨幅，此前一个月下降了0.8%，这是三个月来的首次月度下降。

Indonesia’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.65% in September 2025, up from 2.31% in August. It was the highest inflation rate since May 2024, but it remained within the central bank’s target range of 1.5% to 3.5%. Inflation accelerated for both food (5.01 vs 3.99%) and health (2.01% vs 1.91% in August). Meanwhile, prices moderated for education (1.15% vs 1.43%), clothing (0.79% vs 0.81%), accommodation and restaurants (1.80% vs 1.85%), and furnishing (0.30% vs 0.42%), and housing (1.64% vs 1.65%). Additionally, prices fell softer for transport (-0.15% vs -0.29%) and communication (-0.31% vs -0.33%). Core inflation, which excludes administered and volatile food prices, accelerated slightly to 2.19% in September, up from August’s 11-month low of 2.17%. On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.21%, above market forecasts of a 0.13% rise, after a 0.8% fall in the previous month, which was the first monthly decline in three months.