印度7年期国债 (India7Y) 加自选

WH：你很快就会听说与印度的贸易协议。我们知道鲍威尔。他希望利率降至1%。

WH: You will hear about trade deal with India soon.We know about Powell. He wants rates down to 1%.

印度BSE Sensex指数周一收于83606.5点，下跌约0.5%，在四天飙升至历史高点后回落，导致包括金融和信实在内的部分权重股获利回吐。虽然国内市场的中期前景仍然乐观，但投资者仍在等待有关印美贸易谈判和即将到来的第一季度收益的最新消息。工业和预算数据是今天关注的主要国内报告。在企业方面，Axis Bank和Kotak Mahindra Bank是最大的落后者，各下跌超过2%，其次是Maruti、Ultra Tec Cement、Reliance和ICICI Bank。相反，Trent（3%）、BEL（2%）和SBI（1.8%）的股价收盘涨幅最大。本月，该指数上涨约2.6%，为连续第三个月上涨，受中东紧张局势缓解和印度与美国之间潜在贸易协议的乐观情绪支撑。

India's BSE Sensex closed about 0.5% down at 83,606.5 on Monday, pulling back after a four-day surge to all-time highs, which led to profit-taking in select heavyweights including financials and Reliance. While the medium-term outlook for the domestic market remains positive, investors await fresh updates on India-US trade negotiations and the upcoming Q1 earnings. Industrial and budget data were the primary domestic reports in focus today. On the corporate front, Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the biggest laggards, each down more than 2%, followed by Maruti, Ultra Tec Cement, Reliance and ICICI Bank. Conversely, shares of Trent (3%), BEL (2%) and SBI (1.8%) ended as the top gainers. For the month, the index advanced about 2.6%—its third consecutive monthly gain—supported by easing tensions in the Middle East and optimism surrounding a potential trade deal between India and the US.

2025年5月，印度的工业生产比上一年增长了1.2%，比上个月向下修正的2.6%的增长有所放缓，远低于市场预期的2.4%的增长率，这标志着自2024年8月以来工业增长速度最慢。制造业生产每年增长2.6%，低于上月3.1%的增长率，而电力产量下降5.8%，大幅扭转了上月1.7%的增长率。此外，采矿业产出收缩0.1%，延续了4月份0.2%的跌幅。

India's industrial production expanded by 1.2% from the previous year in May of 2025, slowing from the downwardly revised 2.6% increase in the previous month and firmly below market expectations of a 2.4% growth rate, to mark the softest pace of industrial growth since August 2024. Production in manufacturing expanded by 2.6% annually, slowing from the 3.1% expansion from the previous month, while electricity output contracted by 5.8%, sharply reversing the 1.7% growth rate from the previous month. Additionally, output for mining contracted by 0.1% to extend the 0.2% drop from April.

2025-26年4月至5月，印度的财政赤字为0.13万亿卢比，低于去年同期的0.51万亿卢比，占政府全年目标的0.8%，而去年为3.1%。总收入同比增长28.0%，达到7.33万亿卢比，占年度目标的21.0%，净税收收入为3.51万亿卢比。与此同时，总支出增长19.7%，达到7.46万亿印度卢比，占全年目标的14.7%。资本支出——主要用于基础设施——达到了其年度目标的19.7%。政府的目标是在2025-26财年将财政赤字缩小到GDP的4.4%，低于上一财年的4.8%。

India’s fiscal deficit stood at INR 0.13 trillion in April-May 2025–26, down from INR 0.51 trillion in the same period a year earlier, representing 0.8% of the government’s full-year target compared to 3.1% last year. Total receipts jumped 28.0% year-on-year to INR 7.33 trillion, or 21.0% of the annual goal, with net tax revenues accounting for INR 3.51 trillion. Meanwhile, total expenditure rose 19.7% to INR 7.46 trillion, or 14.7% of the full-year target. Capital spending—largely directed toward infrastructure—reached 19.7% of its yearly objective. The government aims to narrow the fiscal deficit to 4.4% of GDP in FY2025–26, down from 4.8% in the previous fiscal year.