印度3个月期国债 (India3M) 加自选

印度股市周三上午上涨139点，涨幅0.2%，至82326点，前一交易日持平。Nifty指数也上涨了0.2%，超过了早盘交易的25100点大关。BSE Sensex指数跟踪美国股指期货上涨，受围绕美日贸易协定的乐观情绪提振，这增加了对进一步贸易协议的希望。此外，计划在斯德哥尔摩举行的华盛顿-北京贸易谈判增加了积极的市场情绪。交易员们也在等待包括印孚瑟斯和雷迪博士在内的大公司的盈利报告，这两家公司都计划在今天晚些时候公布业绩。汽车板块领涨，上涨1.1%，受印度和英国将签署一项旨在降低包括汽车在内的商品关税的自由贸易协定的消息支撑。表现最好的包括塔塔汽车（+2.3%）、马鲁蒂铃木（+1.4%）、巴贾吉金融（+1.3%），马恒达（+1.0%）和NTPC（+0.5%）。

Shares in India climbed 139 points, or 0.2%, to 82,326 on Wednesday morning after remaining flat in the previous session. The Nifty also rose 0.2%, surpassing the 25,100 mark in early trade. The BSE Sensex tracked gains in US stock futures, buoyed by optimism surrounding US-Japan trade agreements, which have raised hopes for further trade deals. Additionally, planned Washington-Beijing trade talks in Stockholm added to the positive market sentiment. Traders also awaited earnings reports from major companies, including Infosys and Dr. Reddy’s, both scheduled to release results later today. The auto sector led the gains, rising 1.1%, supported by news that India and Britain are set to sign a free trade agreement aimed at reducing tariffs on goods, including cars. Top performers included Tata Motors (+2.3%), Maruti Suzuki (+1.4%), Bajaj Finance (+1.3%), Mahindra & Mahindra (+1.0%), and NTPC (+0.5%).

路透社称，印度和英国将于周四莫迪总理访问英国期间签署自由贸易协定。根据协议，印度将降低英国威士忌、汽车和某些食品的关税，而英国将允许印度纺织品和电动汽车免税。经过三年断断续续的谈判，该协议于5月敲定，旨在通过放宽市场准入和消除关键壁垒来促进双边贸易。外交大臣维克拉姆·米斯里表示：“这是一项重要协议。”他指出，法律审查已接近完成。贸易部长Piyush Goyal将与莫迪一起签署协议。莫迪自2014年以来第四次访问英国，还将会见总理基尔·斯塔默和商界领袖，讨论贸易、能源、安全等问题。2023/24年双边贸易额达到550亿美元。与此同时，在华盛顿8月1日的最后期限之前，美印临时贸易协议的前景正在消退，关于农产品和乳制品关税的谈判陷入僵局。

India and the UK are set to sign a free trade agreement on Thursday during Prime Minister Modi's visit to Britain, Reuters said. Under the deal, India will reduce tariffs on British whisky, cars, and certain food items, while the UK will grant duty-free access to Indian textiles and electric vehicles. Finalized in May after three years of on-and-off talks, the pact aims to boost bilateral trade by easing market access and eliminating key barriers. “This is a significant agreement,” said Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, noting legal vetting is nearly complete. Trade Minister Piyush Goyal will join Modi for the signing. Modi, on his fourth UK visit since 2014, will also meet Prime Minister Keir Starmer and business leaders to discuss trade, energy, security, and more. Bilateral trade hit $55 billion in 2023/24. Meanwhile, prospects for a U.S.-India interim trade deal are fading ahead of Washington’s August 1 deadline, with talks stalled over tariffs on agricultural and dairy goods.

随着市场继续评估最新的企业盈利结果以及印度和美国之间的贸易前景，印度股市从上午的小幅上涨中抹去，周二收平。标准普尔BSE Sensex指数微幅跌破82187的平线，NSE Nifty 50指数下跌0.1%，至25061点。信实工业下跌1.1%，延续了上一交易日3.2%的跌幅，因为投资者继续评估该集团的指导方针，并对零售和石油化工板块的相对表现不佳进行了更多审查。与此同时，汽车生产商也下跌，塔塔汽车和巴贾吉汽车各下跌近2%。此外，印孚瑟斯在明天的收益公布前持平。另一方面，Zomato母公司Eternal在报告利润率提高后飙升10.3%。在宏观方面，印度代表团指出，在8月之前不太可能与美国达成临时贸易协议，这可能会对印度商品征收关税，因此贸易希望仍然渺茫。

Indian stocks erased slight gains from the morning to close flat on Tuesday as markets continued to assess the latest corporate earnings results and the outlook of trade between India and the US. The S&P BSE Sensex inched marginally below the flatline at 82,187 and the NSE Nifty 50 eased 0.1% to 25,061. Reliance Industries fell 1.1% to extend the 3.2% slump from the previous session as investors continued to assess the conglomerate's guidance, with added scrutiny on the relative underperformance of the retail and oil-to-chemicals segments. In the meantime, auto producers also fell with Tata Motors and Bajaj Auto each dropping close to 2%. Also, Infosys was flat ahead of their earnings tomorrow. On the other hand, Zomato parent Eternal surged 10.3% after reporting improved margins. On the macro front, trade hopes remained dim after the Indian delegation noted that it is unlikely that an interim trade deal with the US will be reached before August, risking tariffs on Indian goods.

7月下旬，印度10年期G-Sec的收益率保持在6.3%的门槛，距离2021年以来的最低水平不远，因为印度储备银行的前景温和，印度审慎的财政政策降低了信贷风险。最新的价格数据显示，6月份整体通胀率降至2.1%的六年低点，远低于2.5%的市场预期，接近印度储备银行2%的通胀容忍区间下限。反过来，印度官员表示，不太可能在8月前与美国达成贸易协议，这增加了国内出口的下行风险，因为美国对金砖国家成员和再出口俄罗斯商品的国家构成威胁。较低的通胀和对增长的担忧都促成了印度储备银行的鸽派前景，印度储备银行今年可能会延长其削减周期。与此同时，新的数据显示，由于政府收入的激增超过了支出的增加，印度本财政年度的预算赤字比5月份的上个月有所缩小。

The yield on the Indian 10-year G-Sec held at the 6.3% threshold in latter July, not far from the lowest level since 2021 amid the dovish outlook for the RBI and lower credit risk from India's prudent fiscal policy. The latest price data showed that headline inflation fell to a six-year low of 2.1% in June, well below market expectations of 2.5% and approaching the lower end of the RBI's inflation tolerance band of 2%. In turn, Indian officials signaled that it is unlikely that a trade deal with the US will be reached by August, increasing downside risks to domestic exports amid US threats on BRICS members and countries that re-export Russian goods. Lower inflation and growth concerns both contributed to the dovish outlook for the RBI, which is likely to extend its cutting cycle this year. In the meantime, new data showed that India's budget deficit for the current financial year narrowed from the previous month in May, as a surge in government revenues outpaced higher outlays.