台湾台北股票指数 (TAIEX) 加自选

台湾10年期政府债券收益率降至1.41%的15个月低点。过去4周，台湾10Y债券收益率下跌11.00个基点，最近12个月下跌33.50个基点。

Taiwan 10 Year Government Bond Yield decreased to a 15-month low of 1.41%. Over the past 4 weeks, Taiwan 10Y Bond Yield lost 11.00 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 33.50 basis points.

周二，台湾美元在另一个动荡的交易日上涨超过2%，至29.17元/美元，交易员将上涨归因于美联储即将降息的预期、美元普遍走软以及持续的外国资本流入台湾。这一增长使本币今年迄今的涨幅达到12%，巩固了其作为2025年亚洲表现最佳货币的地位。台湾美元走强受到科技出口（尤其是半导体）强劲以及外国投资者对台湾股市日益增长的兴趣的支撑，对人工智能驱动的需求持乐观态度。央行的不干预政策引发了人们的猜测，即当局可能会容忍货币走强以遏制输入性通胀。然而，人民币的快速升值已经开始引起出口商的担忧，他们正在努力应对利润率下降的问题。市场参与者现在正在等待央行的信号，因为货币的飙升继续考验着货币政策耐心的极限。

The Taiwan dollar surged over 2% to 29.17 per U.S. dollar in another volatile session on Tuesday, with traders attributing the rally to expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts, broad dollar weakness, and sustained foreign capital inflows into the island. The gain pushed the local currency’s year-to-date gain to 12%, cementing its status as Asia’s best-performing currency in 2025. Strength in the Taiwan dollar has been underpinned by resilient tech exports—particularly semiconductors—and growing foreign interest in Taiwanese equities, fueled by optimism surrounding AI-driven demand. The central bank’s hands-off approach has led to speculation that authorities may be tolerating a stronger currency to curb imported inflation. However, the rapid appreciation has begun to raise concerns among exporters, who are grappling with shrinking margins. Market participants now await signals from the central bank as the currency’s surge continues to test the limits of monetary policy patience.

标普全球台湾制造业PMI从上月的48.6降至2025年6月的47.2。这标志着自2023年12月以来制造业活动的最大收缩，由于需求疲软和新订单量减少，产量以自那时以来的最快速度下降。在就业方面，由于新工作人数减少和削减成本措施，就业人数继续下降，失业速度保持稳定，与5月相比仅略有变化。在成本方面，投入价格略有上涨，主要是由于原材料费用上涨。相反，产出价格连续第四个月下降，反映了刺激销售和与客户谈判价格的努力。展望未来，制造商连续第三个月对来年的前景持悲观态度，理由是美国关税和更广泛的全球贸易环境持续存在不确定性。

The S&P Global Taiwan Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.2 in June 2025, from 48.6 the previous month. This marked the steepest contraction in manufacturing activity since December 2023, as output declined at its fastest pace since that time amid weaker demand and lower volumes of new orders. On the employment side, job numbers continued to fall in response to reduced new work intakes and cost-cutting measures, with the pace of job losses remaining steady and only marginally changed from May. Regarding costs, input prices rose slightly, driven primarily by higher raw material expenses. Conversely, output prices declined for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting efforts to stimulate sales and negotiate prices with customers. Looking ahead, manufacturers remained pessimistic about the outlook for the coming year for the third month running, citing persistent uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and the broader global trade environment.

台湾的消费者信心指数从5月份的64.93下降到2025年6月的63.7，这是由于所有指标都有所减弱，连续第四个月下降。这是自2024年4月以来的最低读数，对股票投资时机的看法下降幅度最大（5月份为23.96比26.82）。 第二大跌幅是国内经济前景（81.11比82.16），其次是就业机会预期（70.71比71.70）、未来六个月的价格水平（32.47比33.37）、家庭财务状况（77.06比77.90）和耐用品购买时间（96.88比97.63）。

Taiwan's consumer confidence index fell to 63.7 in June 2025, down from 64.93 in May, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline as all indicators weakened. This was the lowest reading since April 2024, with the sharpest drop seen in perceptions of the timing for stock investment (23.96 vs 26.82 in May). The second-largest decline was in the domestic economic outlook (81.11 vs 82.16), followed by expectations for employment opportunities (70.71 vs 71.70), the price level over the next six months (32.47 vs 33.37), family financial conditions (77.06 vs 77.90), and the timing of durable goods purchases (96.88 vs 97.63).