哈萨克斯坦股票指数 (KASE) 加自选

2025年6月，哈萨克斯坦工业生产同比增长7.2%，高于上个月的5.8%。这标志着三个月来最大的增长，这得益于采矿和采石业（5月份为11.8%对10.4%）和制造业（3.1%对1.2%）的强劲产出增长。相比之下，电力、天然气、蒸汽、热水和空调供应的产量增长速度较慢（2.8%对6.3%），而供水、废物收集和处理以及消除污染的活动继续下降，尽管下降速度较慢（-0.8%对-6.1%）。按月计算，工业产出增长2.7%，从5月份的1.1%收缩反弹。1月至6月，工业活动比去年同期增长6.5%。

Kazakhstan’s industrial production rose by 7.2% year-on-year in June 2025, accelerating from a 5.8% gain in the previous month. This marked the steepest increase in three months, driven by stronger output growth in mining and quarrying (11.8% vs 10.4% in May) and manufacturing (3.1% vs 1.2%). In contrast, production increased at a slower pace for electricity, gas, steam, hot water, and air conditioning supply (2.8% vs 6.3%), while activity in water supply, waste collection and treatment, and pollution elimination continued to decline, though at a softer rate (-0.8% vs -6.1%). On a monthly basis, industrial output grew 2.7%, rebounding from a 1.1% contraction in May. From January to June, industrial activity was up 6.5% compared to the same period last year.

哈萨克斯坦国家银行在2025年7月11日的会议上将基准利率保持在16.5%不变，在持续的通胀压力下保持紧缩的货币立场。6月份，受服务、食品和进口商品价格上涨的推动，年通货膨胀率加速至11.8%，而月通货膨胀率小幅降至0.8%。政策制定者指出，关税改革、财政刺激、快速消费贷款以及高企且波动的通胀预期带来了持续的通胀风险。国内需求依然强劲，2025年前五个月，国内生产总值增长率达到6%，主要由运输、建筑和贸易带动。央行强调，限制性政策以及协调的政府措施旨在将通胀稳定在5%的目标水平。除非外部冲击，否则目前的利率可能会维持到年底，但如果通胀风险加剧，仍有可能进一步加息。下次会议定于2025年8月29日举行。

The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 16.5% during its July 11, 2025 meeting, maintaining a tight monetary stance amid persistent inflationary pressures. Annual inflation accelerated to 11.8% in June, driven by higher prices for services, food, and imported goods, while monthly inflation eased slightly to 0.8%. Policymakers cited continued inflationary risks stemming from tariff reforms, fiscal stimulus, rapid consumer lending, as well as high and volatile inflation expectations. Domestic demand remained strong, with GDP growth reaching 6% in the first five months of 2025, led by transport, construction, and trade. The central bank emphasized that the restrictive policy, alongside coordinated government measures, aims to anchor inflation toward the 5% target. Barring external shocks, the current rate may be maintained through year-end, though further hikes remain possible if inflationary risks intensify. The next meeting is due August 29, 2025.

自由控股公司（Freedom Holding Corp.）的哈萨克斯坦服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）从5月份的54.3升至2025年6月的55.1，标志着连续第四个月增长，也是自2019年3月调查开始以来有史以来最快的扩张。强劲增长是由新项目和商业模式的实施推动的，这些项目和模式共同刺激了需求并吸引了更多客户，尽管新业务量略有疲软。因此，就业在连续三个月下降后恢复增长。在价格方面，由于原材料、租金和公用事业价格上涨以及汇率走弱，投入成本通胀加速至四个月高点。随着企业将更高的成本转嫁给客户，产出价格通胀也加快至四个月来的最高点。最后，由于对市场竞争、外贸风险和税收政策潜在变化的担忧，商业情绪降至一年来的最低水平。

Freedom Holding Corp.'s Kazakhstan Services PMI rose to 55.1 in June 2025, up from 54.3 in May, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth and the fastest expansion on record since the survey began in March 2019. The robust growth was driven by the implementation of new projects and business models, which collectively spurred demand and attracted additional customers, despite a slight softening in new business volumes. As a result, employment returned to growth after three consecutive months of decline. On the price front, input cost inflation accelerated to a four-month high, fueled by rising prices for raw materials, rent, and utilities, as well as a weaker exchange rate. Output price inflation also quickened to a four-month high, as firms passed higher costs on to customers. Finally, business sentiment weakened to its lowest level in a year, amid concerns over market competition, foreign trade risks, and potential changes in tax policy.

2025年6月，哈萨克斯坦的年通货膨胀率攀升至11.8%，为2023年9月以来的最高水平，高于上个月的11.3%，这是由于食品价格增长更快（10.6%对9.6%），同时付费服务（16.1%对16.0%）和非食品（9.4%对9.0%）略有增长。按月计算，6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.8%，为2024年9月以来最慢增速，较5月份0.9%的涨幅有所回落。

The annual inflation rate in Kazakhstan climbed to 11.8% in June 2025, the highest since September 2023, accelerating from 11.3% in the previous month, driven by faster price growth in food products (10.6% vs. 9.6%), alongside slight increases in paid services (16.1% vs. 16.0%) and non-food products (9.4% vs. 9.0%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.8% in June, marking the slowest pace since September 2024 and easing from a 0.9% gain in May.