法国5年期国债 (France5Y) 加自选

周五，巴黎CAC 40指数扭转早盘跌幅，收于7835点，上涨0.2%，受欧洲央行宽松预期减弱和欧盟-美国贸易不确定性持续影响，重量级奢侈品板块反弹提振。LVMH股价飙升3.9%，此前其第二季度业绩显示利润率高于预期，再加上中国需求复苏的“有形”迹象以及首席财务官塞西尔·卡瓦尼斯（Cécile Cabanis）对成本纪律的重新关注，而奢侈品同行开云（4.4%）和爱马仕（1.6%）的表现也优于预期。在其他地方，对美国-欧盟关税协议的希望提振了Stellantis（3%）等工业和出口导向型企业。在政策方面，投资者减少了对欧洲央行进一步降息的押注。此前，由于持续的贸易风险和通胀率恢复到2%的目标，欧洲央行一年来首次暂停降息，拉加德总统称欧元区处于“良好状态”。本周，CAC 40指数上涨0.4%。

Paris’s CAC 40 reversed early losses to close 0.2% higher at 7,835 on Friday, lifted by a rally in the heavyweight luxury sector amid fading expectations for ECB easing and ongoing EU–US trade uncertainties. LVMH surged 3.9% after its Q2 results delivered profit margins above forecasts, compounded by “tangible” signs of Chinese demand recovery and a renewed focus on cost discipline under CFO Cécile Cabanis, while luxury peers Kering (4.4%) and Hermès (1.6%) also outperformed. Elsewhere, hopes for a US–EU tariff accord lifted industrial and export-oriented names such as Stellantis (3%). On the policy front, investors have trimmed their bets on further ECB rate cuts after the central bank paused for the first time in a year amid persistent trade risks and inflation’s return to its 2% target, with President Lagarde describing the bloc as being in “a good place.” For the week, the CAC 40 rose 0.4%.

法国10年期政府债券收益率跃升至3.4%以上，触及4月10日以来的最高水平，因为投资者降低了对欧洲央行进一步降息的预期，并在欧盟-美国贸易谈判取得进展的迹象下远离了避险资产。欧洲央行在7月份保持利率稳定，在过去一年中八次降息后暂停，部分原因是在8月1日最后期限之前与特朗普政府的贸易谈判存在不确定性。此外，拉加德总统采取了更为平衡的语气，指出欧元区现在“处于一个良好的状态”，通货膨胀率已恢复到目标水平。据报道，欧盟和美国即将敲定一项协议，对选定的欧洲进口产品征收15%的关税，同时取消对其他国家的关税。在利率市场，进一步宽松的前景已大幅减弱，9月降息的可能性降至25%，而12月降息的几率已从欧洲央行决定前的90%以上降至70%。

France’s 10-year government bond yield jumped past 3.4%, touching its highest level since April 10, as investors scaled back expectations for further ECB rate cuts and moved away from safe-haven assets amid signs of progress in EU–US trade negotiations. The ECB held interest rates steady in July, pausing after eight cuts over the past year due in part to uncertainty around trade talks with the Trump administration ahead of an August 1 deadline. Also, President Lagarde struck a more balanced tone, noting the eurozone is now “in a good place” with inflation returning to target. According to reports, the EU and US are close to finalizing a deal that would introduce 15% tariffs on selected European imports while lifting duties on others. In interest rate markets, the outlook for further easing has weakened considerably, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping to 25%, while odds for a cut by December have fallen to 70%, down from over 90% before the ECB’s decision.

周五，巴黎CAC 40指数下跌0.6%，至7770点，受企业盈利令人失望、对欧洲央行政策宽松的预期降低以及欧盟-美国贸易谈判的不确定性挥之不去的拖累。LVMH下滑1.5%，其第二季度销售额略低于分析师预期，给更广泛的奢侈品行业增加了压力。与此同时，意法半导体再次暴跌15%，延续了周四的大幅下跌，此前该公司未达到第二季度盈利预期，并因重组费用而出现营业亏损。在政策方面，投资者已经减少了对欧洲央行今年进一步降息的押注。此前，在持续的贸易风险和通胀率回升至2%的目标下，欧洲央行一年来首次保持利率稳定，拉加德总统表示，欧元区处于“良好状态”

Paris' CAC 40 fell 0.6% to 7,770 on Friday, weighed down by disappointing corporate earnings, reduced expectations for ECB policy easing, and lingering uncertainty over EU–US trade negotiations. LVMH slipped 1.5%, as its second-quarter sales came in slightly below analyst expectations, adding pressure to the broader luxury sector. Meanwhile, STMicroelectronics plunged another 15%, extending Thursday’s sharp decline, after missing second-quarter earnings estimates and posting an operating loss due to restructuring charges. On the policy front, investors have scaled back bets on further ECB rate cuts this year, after the central bank kept rates steady for the first time in a year amid persistent trade risks and inflation returning to its 2% target, with President Lagarde saying the bloc was in "a good place."

法国10年期政府债券收益率升至3.44%，为2025年4月以来的最高水平。过去4周，法国10年期债券收益率上涨19.10个基点，过去12个月上涨32.70个基点。

France 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to 3.44%, the highest since April 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, France 10Y Bond Yield gained 19.10 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 32.70 basis points.