保加利亚10年期国债 (Bulgaria10Y) 加自选

保加利亚的经常账户盈余从去年同期的7410万欧元增长到2025年6月的2.081亿欧元，从连续九个月的赤字中反弹。这主要是由于服务盈余从2024年6月的6.627亿欧元增加到9.546亿欧元。与此同时，初级收入赤字从6.144亿欧元缩小到4.048亿欧元。相比之下，商品贸易逆差从2.035亿欧元扩大到4.22亿欧元，而包括汇款和其他经常性转移在内的次级收入盈余从9690万欧元降至8020万欧元。

Bulgaria’s current account surplus grew to €208.1 million in June 2025 from €74.1 million in the corresponding month of the previous year, rebounding from nine consecutive months of deficit. This was mainly attributed to the increase in services surplus to €954.6 million from €662.7 million in June 2024. At the same time, the primary income deficit narrowed to €404.8 million from 614.4 million. In contrast, the goods trade deficit widened to €422 million from €203.5 million, while the secondary income surplus—which includes remittances and other current transfers—fell to €80.2 million from €96.9 million.

保加利亚的年通货膨胀率从上个月的4.4%上升到2025年7月的5.3%。这是自2023年11月以来的最高读数，主要原因是食品和非酒精饮料（7.6%对7.5%）、酒精饮料和烟草（7.6%比6.9%）、住房公用事业（8.4%对6.7%）、通信（4.1%对1.6%）、娱乐和文化（14.5%对9.9%）、教育（7.9%对7.2%）以及杂项商品和服务（3.9%对3.5%）的成本上涨。此外，运输（-1.9%对-2.3%）和家具、家用设备和维护（-0.7%对-0.9%）的价格下降速度较慢。与此同时，餐馆和酒店的通货膨胀有所缓和（8.3%对9.9%）。按月计算，7月份消费者价格指数从上一时期的0.4%上涨了1.7%。

Bulgaria’s annual inflation rate rose to 5.3% in July 2025 from 4.4% in the previous month. This marked the highest reading since November 2023, driven by higher costs of food and non-alcoholic beverages (7.6% vs 7.5% in June), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (7.6% vs 6.9%), housing utilities (8.4% vs 6.7%), communication (4.1% vs 1.6%), recreation and culture (14.5% vs 9.9%), education (7.9% vs 7.2%), and miscellaneous goods and services (3.9% vs 3.5%). Additionally, prices declined at a softer pace for transport (-1.9% vs -2.3%) and furnishings and household equipment and maintenance (-0.7% vs -0.9%). Meanwhile, inflation softened for restaurants and hotels (8.3% vs 9.9%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 1.7% in July from 0.4% in the preceding period.

初步估计显示，2025年第二季度保加利亚经济同比增长3.1%，与上一季度持平。经济放缓主要是由于净贸易的负面贡献，出口进一步下降（-4.9%对第一季度的-3.3%），进口下滑（-0.6%对4.6%）。与此同时，国内需求有所缓解，最终消费增长率从第一季度的7.1%上升至6.5%。固定资本形成总额也以6.7%的较慢速度增长，而此前为7.4%。按季度计算，经济比过去三个月0.6%的增长率微升0.7%。

Bulgaria’s economy stood at 3.1% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, unchanged from the previous quarter, preliminary estimates showed. The slowdown was largely driven by a negative contribution from net trade, as exports declined further (-4.9% vs -3.3% in Q1) and imports slipped (-0.6% vs 4.6%). Meanwhile, domestic demand eased, with final consumption growth rising to 6.5% from 7.1% in Q1. Gross fixed capital formation also increased at a slower pace of 6.7% compared to 7.4% previously. On a quarterly basis, the economy edged up by 0.7% from the 0.6% growth recorded in the last three-month period.

由于出口下降而进口增加，保加利亚的贸易逆差从去年同月的5.785亿保加利亚列弗扩大到2025年6月的10.795亿保加利亚列佛。由于对欧盟的销售额下降（-6.6%），出口同比下降4%，至69.703亿保加利亚列弗，而对非欧盟国家的出货量上升（0.9%）。与此同时，进口增长2.7%，至8049.8保加利亚列弗，反映出从欧盟的采购增加（7.1%），尽管从非欧盟国家的进口（-3.1%）有所减少。1月至6月，该国的贸易逆差从去年同期的536860万保加利亚列弗急剧扩大到87.708亿保加利亚列弗，出口下降4.6%，进口增长3.1%。

Bulgaria’s trade deficit widened to BGN 1,079.5 million in June 2025 from BGN 578.5 million in the same month last year, as exports declined while imports increased. Exports fell by 4% year-on-year to BGN 6,970.3 million due to lower sales to the EU (-6.6%), while shipments rose to non-EU countries (0.9%). Meanwhile, imports increased by 2.7% to BGN 8,049.8, reflecting higher purchases from the EU (7.1%), although imports from non-EU countries (-3.1%) contracted. In the January to June period, the country’s trade gap widened sharply to BGN 8,770.8 million from BGN 5,368.6 million in the corresponding period of the previous year, as exports dropped by 4.6%, while imports rose by 3.1%.