印度尼西亚20年期国债 (Indonesia20Y) 加自选

印尼5月消费者信心指数从之前的121.7降至117.5。印尼5月消费者信心指数从之前的121.7降至117.5

Indonesia Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 121.7 to 117.5 in May.Indonesia Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 121.7 to 117.5 in May

2025年5月，印度尼西亚的消费者信心降至117.5，低于4月的121.7，这是四个月来的首次增长。这是自2022年9月以来消费者信心的最低水平，反映了购买力的减弱和中产阶级的萎缩，六个子指数中的大多数都出现了恶化。对当前经济状况的看法（下降7.7点至106.0）、未来六个月的收入预期（下降2.1点至135.4）、当前收入水平（下降7.3点至118.1）、与六个月前相比的就业机会（下降5.9点至95.7）和经济前景（下降0.8点至129.0）都出现了显著下降。与此同时，整体就业机会的分项指数略有上升，上升0.3点至123.8。

Indonesia's consumer confidence fell to 117.5 in May 2025, down from 121.7 in April, which had marked the first increase in four months. This was the lowest level of consumer sentiment since September 2022, reflecting weakening purchasing power and a shrinking middle class, with most of the six sub-indices showing deterioration. Notable declines were seen in perceptions of current economic conditions (down 7.7 points to 106.0), income expectations for the next six months (down 2.1 points to 135.4), current income levels (down 7.3 points to 118.1), job availability compared to six months ago (down 5.9 points to 95.7), and economic outlook (down 0.8 points to 129.0). Meanwhile, the sub-index for overall job availability rose slightly, up 0.3 points to 123.8.

根据印尼汽车工业协会（GAIKINDO）的数据，2025年5月，印尼汽车销量同比下降15.1%，至60613辆，扭转了前一个月5%的增长。GAIKINDO董事长Jongkie Sugiarto表示：“购买力仍然非常弱，经济增长没有回升。”。尽管经济低迷，GAIKINDO仍为2025年设定了乐观的汽车销售目标，预计销量在75万至90万辆之间。这一预测超过了2024年修订后的85万套预测和去年售出的865723套。按月度计算，2025年5月汽车销量飙升18.4%，从前一个月27.8%的下滑中反弹。今年前五个月，汽车总销量达到316981辆，比去年同期下降5%。

Car sales in Indonesia plunged by 15.1% year-on-year to 60,613 units in May 2025, reversing a 5% gain in the previous month, according to the Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (GAIKINDO). “Purchasing power remains very weak, and economic growth has not picked up,” said GAIKINDO Chairman Jongkie Sugiarto. Despite the downturn, GAIKINDO has set an optimistic car sales target for 2025, projecting sales between 750,000 and 900,000 units. This forecast exceeds both the revised 2024 projection of 850,000 units and the 865,723 units sold last year. On a monthly basis, car sales soared by 18.4% in May 2025, rebounding from a 27.8% slump in the previous month. For the first five months of the year, total car sales reached 316,981 units, 5% lower compared to the same period last year.

2025年5月，印度尼西亚的外汇储备为1525亿美元，与4月持平，反映出尽管面临外部压力，但仍保持弹性。税收收入、服务收入以及石油和天然气的外汇收益支撑了这一稳定局面，抵消了政府外债支付的影响以及印尼央行在全球金融市场持续存在不确定性的情况下稳定卢比的努力。最新数据足以覆盖6.4个月的进口或6.2个月的出口和政府外债支付，仍远高于约3个月进口的国际充足性标准。央行重申，在持续的出口表现、资本和金融账户的预计盈余以及投资者对印度尼西亚经济前景的持续信心的支撑下，预计未来几个月外汇储备将保持充足。

Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 152.5 billion in May 2025, unchanged from April, reflecting continued resilience despite external pressures. The stable position was supported by tax revenues, service receipts, and foreign exchange earnings from oil and gas, offsetting the impact of government external debt payments and Bank Indonesia’s efforts to stabilize the rupiah amid ongoing global financial market uncertainty. The latest figures are sufficient to cover 6.4 months of imports or 6.2 months of imports and government foreign debt payments, remaining well above the international adequacy standard of around three months of imports. The central bank reiterated that foreign exchange reserves are expected to remain adequate in the coming months, underpinned by sustained export performance, a projected surplus in the capital and financial account, and continued investor confidence in Indonesia’s economic outlook.