国际能源署下调了今年的世界石油需求预测，预计2025年石油市场将出现盈余。此外，该机构表示，在“异常不确定的宏观经济环境”下，今年第一季度的需求低于预期。美国的关税是罪魁祸首，因为他们说这“使宏观风险向下行倾斜”。

IEA trims world oil demand forecast for the year, sees oil market surplus for 2025.Adding to that, the agency says that demand in the first quarter of this year had come in below expectations amid "an unusually uncertain macroeconomic climate". US tariffs were to blame as they said that it "tilted macro risks to the downside".

英镑：预算事件前的下行风险——荷兰国际集团。ING的英国经济学家发表了一份关于英欧关系潜在重置及其对英国财政影响的报告。结论是，虽然重新加入单一市场（或收紧经济联系）将产生有益的增长效应，但这不太可能释放出太多的财政空间。

GBP: Downside risks ahead of Budget event – ING.ING's UK economist has published a note on the potential reset in UK-EU relationships and implications for British finances. The conclusion is that while rejoining the single market (or tightening economic ties) would have a beneficial growth effect, that is unlikely to unlock much fiscal headroom.

美元：今天风险情绪再次走软——荷兰国际集团。债券市场对昨日低于预期的核心CPI数据（月环比0.2%）做出了违反直觉的反应，美联储的最终利率定价小幅上涨，国债在曲线上表现疲软。ING外汇分析师Francesco Pesole指出，这可能反映出在关税影响开始显现之前，人们不愿意接受通货紧缩的故事。

USD: Risk sentiment softer again today – ING.The bond market had a counterintuitive reaction to yesterday's cooler-than-expected core CPI data (0.2% MoM), with the Fed's terminal rate pricing inching higher and Treasuries soft across the curve. This could mirror some reluctance to buy into the deflationary story before the tariff impact has started to show, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

欧元：价格仍有很多积极因素–ING。在小幅回落至1.090以下后，欧元下一轮走高可能需要等待俄罗斯正式同意与乌克兰的30天休战协议。ING外汇分析师Francesco Pesole指出，尽管如此，这可能不是欧元的主要或长期看涨动力，因为和平协议已经在很大程度上处于价格之中，停战条款需要与乌克兰和欧盟的长期影响进行权衡。

EUR: Still lots of positives in the price – ING.After inching back below 1.090, the next leg higher for the euro may need to wait for Russia to officially agree on the 30-day truce with Ukraine. Still, that may not be a major or long-lasting bullish driver for the euro, as a peace deal is already largely in the price, and the terms of the truce would need to be weighed against longer-term implications for Ukraine and the EU, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.