RBNZ预览：自动驾驶？。新西兰储备银行可能会注意到，2024年底的经济强于预期，最近的数据表明经济增长仍在继续。这一评估将给人一种印象，即5月货币政策声明中再次降息的可能性很大，但5月之后的降息比2月货币政策报告中所表示的更具投机性。

Preview of RBNZ: On Autopilot?.The RBNZ will likely note the economy was stronger than expected in late 2024 and that the recent data flow suggest growth has continued. This assessment will give the impression that another cut at the May Monetary Policy Statement is more likely than not but that cuts after May are more speculative than indicated at the February Monetary Policy Statement.

新西兰股市在周三早盘交易中下跌22点，跌幅0.2%，至12290点，此前一个交易日收盘呈绿色，因为交易员在美国总统特朗普今天晚些时候宣布互惠关税之前持谨慎态度。新西兰元50指数追随华尔街道琼斯指数的下跌，因为投资者在就业数据和制造业报告疲软的情况下等待“解放日”的宣布。新西兰最大贸易伙伴中国周二的数据限制了下跌，因为官方数据显示工厂活动以一年来最快的速度增长，中国大陆制造业是四个月来扩张最快的。在数据方面，新西兰2月份的建筑许可证增长了0.7%，较1月份的2.6%有所回落。科技股、工业股和医疗保健股拖累该指数，弗莱彻大厦（-1.2%）、殖民地汽车公司（-1.0%）、斐雪派克（-0.9%）、奥克兰国际机场（0.9%）和哈伦斯坦-格拉森（-0.8%）跌幅显著。

New Zealand's stocks fell 22 points, or 0.2%, to 12,290 in morning deals on Wednesday after closing in the green in the previous session, as traders were cautious ahead of US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs announcement later today. The NZX 50 tracked a decline in Wall Street's Dow Jones as investors awaited the "Liberation Day" announcement amid a weak report on jobs data and manufacturing. Tuesday's data from New Zealand's top trading partner, China, capped the fall, as the manufacturing sector on the mainland expanded the most in four months, following official data that showed factory activity rose at the fastest pace in a year. On the data front, building permits in New Zealand grew 0.7% in February, easing from a 2.6% gain in January. The tech sector, industrials, and healthcare weighed on the index, with notable losses from Fletcher Building (-1.2%), Colonial Motor (-1.0%), Fisher & Paykel (-0.9%), Auckland International Airport (-0.9%), and Hallenstein Glasson (-0.8%).

新西兰数据-2月份建筑许可证+0.7%m/m（之前+2.6%）。新西兰元在数据上几乎没有变化——对货币的影响主要来自特朗普关税的发展。我们将于2025年4月2日星期三美国东部时间下午4点收到下一批关税。

New Zealand data - February Building permits +0.7% m/m (prior +2.6%).The New Zealand dollar is barely moved on the data - the impacts on the currency are mainly coming from Trump tariff developments. We get the next lot of tariffs at 4pm US Eastern time on Wednesday, April 2, 2025.

新西兰新住宅的建筑许可数量环比增长0.7%，经季节性调整后，2025年2月达到2791套。在截至2025年2月的一年里，批准的新住宅总数为33595套，比上一年下降了7.4%。同意的非住宅建筑工程的年度价值为88亿美元，与截至2024年2月的年度相比下降了11%。截至2025年2月，每1000名居民同意的新住宅数量为6.3套，低于前一年的6.9套。

The number of building consents issued for new dwellings in New Zealand rose by 0.7% month-on-month, reaching a seasonally adjusted total of 2,791 units in February 2025. Over the year to February 2025, the total number of new dwellings consented was 33,595, marking a 7.4% decline from the previous year. The annual value of non-residential building work consented stood at $8.8 billion, a decrease of 11% compared to the year ending February 2024. For the year to February 2025, the number of new dwellings consented per 1,000 residents was 6.3, down from 6.9 in the previous year.