加拿大大选聚焦北美GDP数据。随着加拿大人周一前往投票站，我们正在观看周三2月的国内生产总值报告，包括3月的初步估计，以了解随着关税逆风的持续加剧，下一届政府将继承什么样的经济。

Canada's Elections Put North American GDP Data in Focus.With Canadians heading to the polls on Monday, we're watching February's gross domestic product report on Wednesday, including an early estimate for March, for clues on what type of economy the next government inherits as tariff headwinds continue to build.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数下跌0.3%，收于24711点，由于美中关税谈判的不确定性挥之不去，资源密集型交易所的重量级矿业公司面临压力。与贵金属挂钩的股票领跌：Agnico Eagle下跌0.8%，此前金价大幅回落，尽管该矿商在强劲的产量和较低的成本下第一季度利润几乎翻了一番，而Wheaton Precious、Barrick gold和Franco Nevada则下跌了0.6%至1.8%。事实证明，科技股更具弹性——Shopify上涨2.2%，缓冲了更广泛的低迷。经济方面，2月份零售额下降0.4%，突显出借贷成本上升对国内需求的压力。交易员们还对贸易战的各种暗示感到困惑——尽管特朗普总统声称谈判正在进行中，但中国可能暂停对某些美国商品征收125%关税的报道很快被北京否认——这让投资者保持谨慎。尽管周五有所回落，但多伦多证交所仍录得2.1%的周涨幅。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.3% to close at 24,711 mark on Friday, as heavyweight mining names on the resource-heavy exchange came under pressure amid lingering uncertainty over U.S.–China tariff talks. Bullion-linked stocks led the retreat: Agnico Eagle dipped 0.8% after gold prices pulled back sharply despite the miner nearly doubling first-quarter profits on robust output and lower costs, while Wheaton Precious, Barrick Gold and Franco-Nevada slid between 0.6% and 1.8%. Tech shares proved more resilient—Shopify jumped 2.2%, cushioning the broader downturn. Economically, retail sales fell 0.4% in February, underscoring how higher borrowing costs are straining domestic demand. Traders also wrestled with mixed trade-war cues—reports that China might suspend its 125% tariffs on certain U.S. goods were quickly denied by Beijing even as President Trump asserted talks were ongoing—leaving investors cautious. Despite Friday’s pullback, the TSX posted a 2.1% weekly gain.

2025年2月，加拿大政府预算盈余76亿加元，较2024年2月的83亿加元有所收窄。在2024/25财年的前11个月（4月至2月），该国赤字为193亿加元，高于去年同期报告的173亿加元。项目支出增长了17.1%，反映了各个类别的增长。公共债务费用增加了3.3%，主要是由于可销售债券存量的增加。与此同时，政府收入增长了10.4%，主要得益于个人和企业所得税收入的增加。

Canada’s government budget recorded a surplus of CAD 7.6 billion in February 2025, narrowing from a surplus of CAD 8.3 billion in February 2024. During the first eleven months of the 2024/25 fiscal year (April – February), the country posted a deficit of CAD 19.3 billion, up from the CAD 17.3 billion deficit reported in the same period a year earlier. Program expenses rose by 17.1%, reflecting increases across various categories. Public debt charges increased by 3.3%, primarily due to a rise in the stock of marketable bonds. Meanwhile, government revenues climbed by 10.4%, largely driven by higher personal and corporate income tax revenue.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数徘徊在24700点的水平线以下，由于矿业巨头的压力抵消了科技、金融和能源行业的支持，停止了三天的连胜。与黄金挂钩的股票领跌。Agnico Eagle股价下跌近1%，金价大幅下跌，尽管在强劲的生产和较低的运营成本的支持下，其第一季度利润几乎翻了一番。Wheaton Precious、Barrick Gold和Franco Nevada同样下跌1.3%至1.9%。另一方面，Shopify、Brookfield和森科尔上涨0.7%至1.9%，有助于缓冲多伦多交易所的损失。与此同时，交易员们分析了相互矛盾的贸易战信号，有报道称中国可能会暂停对某些美国进口商品征收125%的关税，但这一说法很快被官方否认，尽管特朗普总统表示他的政府仍在与北京进行讨论。多伦多交易所预计每周上涨约2%。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index hovered below the flatline at the 24,700 mark on Friday, halting a three-day winning streak as pressure from mining giants offset support from the tech, financial and energy sectors. Bullion-linked equities led the decline. Agnico Eagle fell almost 1% as gold prices sharply retreated, despite nearly doubling its first-quarter profit on the back of robust production and lower operating costs. Wheaton Precious, Barrick Gold and Franco-Nevada likewise dropped between 1.3% and 1.9%. On the flip side, Shopify, Brookfield and Suncor added between 0.7% and 1.9%, helping to cushion losses on the Toronto exchange. Meanwhile, traders parsed conflicting trade-war signals with reports that China might suspend its 125% tariff on certain U.S. imports were swiftly rebutted by official denials, even as President Trump said his administration remained in discussions with Beijing. The Toronto exchange was set for a weekly advance of around 2%.