加拿大10年期政府债券收益率跌破2.92%，接近3月初的两年低点2.83%，因投资者涌向避险资产，以应对美国关税措施引发的全球衰退风险不断升级。特朗普总统宣布对所有进口商品征收10%的基准关税，甚至对一些主要贸易伙伴征收更高的关税，这加剧了人们对美国经济活动放缓和潜在报复措施的担忧。国内出口数据的恶化进一步加剧了这种不确定性，2月份商品出口下降5.5%，贸易平衡从1月份的31亿美元顺差转变为15亿美元逆差，综合采购经理人指数急剧下降至2020年6月以来的最低水平。对增长放缓的预期增加了对加拿大政府债券的需求，导致收益率下降，因为市场参与者在全球贸易中断扩大的情况下寻求降低风险。

The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond fell past 2.92%, nearing the two-year low of 2.83% seen in early March, as investors flock to safe-haven assets in response to escalating global recession risks spurred by U.S. tariff measures. President Trump's announcement of a baseline 10% tariff on all imports—and even steeper rates for some key trading partners—has amplified concerns over a slowdown in U.S. economic activity and potential retaliatory measures. This uncertainty is further compounded by deteriorating domestic export data, with a 5.5% decline in merchandise exports in February and a shift in the trade balance from a $3.1 billion surplus in January to a $1.5 billion deficit, as well as a sharp plunge in the composite PMI to the lowest since June 2020. Expectations of subdued growth have increased demand for Canadian government bonds, driving yields lower as market participants seek to mitigate risk amidst widening global trade disruptions.

标准普尔全球加拿大服务业采购经理人指数从上个月的46.6暴跌至2025年3月的41.2，反映出加拿大服务业活动以前所未有的速度连续第四个收缩期。由于关税问题导致客户支出紧缩，新业务急剧下降。因此，对能力的需求下降导致了适度的失业，标志着人员配置水平连续第三个月下降。在价格方面，运营费用明显上升，由于劳动力费用增加和供应商费用增加，投入价格通胀加速至2023年10月以来的最高水平。展望未来，由于对关税的担忧和前景的不确定性，信心降至2020年5月以来的最低水平。

The S&P Global Canada Services PMI plummeted to 41.2 in March 2025 from 46.6 in the previous month, reflecting the fourth consecutive period of contraction in Canada's services activity, at an unprecedented pace. New business declined sharply as tariff concerns led to a retrenchment of client spending. Consequently, the lower demand for capacity resulted in modest job losses, marking the third successive monthly decline in staffing levels. On the price front, operating expenses rose noticeably, with input price inflation accelerating to its highest level since October 2023, driven by higher labor expenses and increased supplier charges. Looking forward, confidence sank to its lowest level since May 2020, amid concerns over tariffs and an uncertain outlook.

周四，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数暴跌约2%，跌至24750点以下，因为特朗普总统宣布的美国积极互惠关税引发了人们对全球经济衰退加剧和供应链中断的担忧。尽管加拿大受益于《美墨加协定》下的相对豁免，但更广泛的不确定性严重影响了依赖出口的行业——国内数据显示，2月份商品出口下降5.5%，贸易平衡从1月份的31亿美元盈余转变为15亿美元赤字，加剧了这一不确定性。对进一步提高关税和报复措施的预期，加上投入成本上升和对工业活动放缓的担忧，加剧了风险规避，导致了广泛的抛售。值得注意的是，科技、金融和大宗商品生产商受到了严重打击，Shopify下跌了15%以上，布鲁克菲尔德下跌了5.5%，帝国石油下跌了6.5%，巴里克黄金下跌了4%。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index plunged around 2% to fall below the 24,750 mark on Thursday as aggressive U.S. reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump ignited fears of a deepening global recession and disrupted supply chains. Although Canada benefits from a relative exemption under the USMCA, the broader uncertainty is weighing heavily on export-dependent sectors—exacerbated by domestic data showing a 5.5% decline in merchandise exports in February and a shrinking trade balance that shifted from a $3.1 billion surplus in January to a $1.5 billion deficit. Expectations of further tariff hikes and retaliatory measures, combined with rising input costs and concerns over slowing industrial activity, have intensified risk aversion, leading to a broad-based sell-off. Notably, tech, financial, and commodity producers have been hit hard, with Shopify down over 15%, Brookfield off 5.5%, Imperial Oil dropping 6.5%, and Barrick Gold declining 4%.

标普全球加拿大综合PMI从2月份的46.8下滑至2025年3月的42，这是自2020年6月新冠疫情导致的下降以来私营部门产出的最大降幅。服务业的下降（2月份PMI为41.2对46.6）尤为严重，制造业活动（PMI为46.3对47.8）的收缩速度也快于上月。新订单的缺乏加剧了经济衰退，主要是由于关税和加拿大政治局势的不确定性，导致新业务出现了自2020年6月以来的最大跌幅。因此，连续第三个月出现失业，对未来的信心降至2020年5月以来的最低水平。与此同时，成本压力增加，投入价格通胀达到近两年半以来的最高点。

The S&P Global Canada Composite PMI slipped to 42 in March 2025, down from 46.8 in February, marking the sharpest decline in private sector output since the COVID-19-induced drop in June 2020. The decline in services (PMI at 41.2 vs 46.6 in February) was particularly severe, and manufacturing activity (PMI at 46.3 vs 47.8) also contracted at a faster pace than in the previous month. The downturn was exacerbated by a lack of new orders, largely due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs and Canada's political situation, leading to the steepest drop in new business since June 2020. As a result, job losses were recorded for the third straight month, and sentiment about the future fell to its lowest level since May 2020. Simultaneously, cost pressures grew, with input price inflation reaching its highest point in almost two and a half years.