周四，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数上涨0.4%，收于25254点，创下一个多月新高，能源股因油价走强和一波令人放心的企业业绩而上涨。Cenovus领涨，在第一季度盈利轻松超过分析师预测后飙升9.1%，而加拿大天然气公司因强劲的生产数据和强于预期的利润率上涨了5%。森科尔和帝国石油公司紧随其后，分别增加了1.5%和2%。在其他地方，大型股Shopify收盘下跌0.3%，商品总量增长放缓，订阅收入减速，缓和了对其收入表现的乐观反应。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布了一项全面的美英贸易协定，这是自加征关税以来的第一项此类协议，这为市场带来了额外的推动力，增加了人们对贸易壁垒减少和全球股市风险偏好增强的希望。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.4% to close at 25,254 on Thursday, marking an over one-month high as energy stocks rallied on firmer oil prices and a wave of reassuring corporate results. Cenovus spearheaded the rally—soaring 9.1% after delivering first-quarter earnings that comfortably outstripped analysts’ forecasts—while Canadian Natural jumped 5% on robust production figures and stronger-than-expected profit margins. Suncor and Imperial Oil followed suit, adding 1.5% and 2%, respectively. Elsewhere, mega-cap Shopify closed 0.3% lower, with softer gross merchandise volume growth and decelerating subscription revenue tempering the upbeat reaction to its revenue beat. Markets received an additional tailwind from US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a comprehensive US–UK trade pact—the first such agreement since tariffs were imposed—fueling hopes for a rollback of trade barriers and reinforcing risk appetite across global equity markets.

加拿大10年期政府债券收益率攀升至3.22%以上，创下两周新高，因为国内和国际压力的混合推动长期借贷成本上升。中国银行的《金融体系评估》强调了家庭债务的增加和杠杆对冲基金在政府债券拍卖中的巨大足迹，这些发展缓和了人们对即将降息的预期，并表明货币政策更加谨慎。在国外，美联储将利率维持在4.25-4.50%的决定，以及持续通胀和失业风险上升的警告，提高了美国国债收益率。与此同时，美加持续的关税威胁——仅被美英贸易协定和即将到来的美中谈判部分抵消——给加拿大的出口前景蒙上了阴影，促使投资者寻求更大的长期溢价。最后，为资助财政举措而发行的大量联邦债券增加了供应，在部分风险规避情绪中加剧了收益率上升的压力。

The yield on Canada’s 10-year government bond climbed above 3.22%, marking a two-week high as a mix of domestic and international pressures drives longer-term borrowing costs higher. The BoC’s Financial System Review underscored elevated household indebtedness and the outsized footprint of leveraged hedge funds in government-bond auctions—developments that have tempered expectations for an imminent rate cut and signaled greater caution in monetary policy. Abroad, the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates at 4.25–4.50%, alongside warnings of persistent inflation and elevated unemployment risks, lifted US Treasury yields. Simultaneously, ongoing US–Canada tariff threats—offset only partially by a US–UK trade pact and forthcoming US–China negotiations—have clouded Canada’s export outlook, prompting investors to seek larger term premia. Lastly, substantial federal bond issuance to fund fiscal initiatives has added supply, reinforcing upward yield pressure amid pockets of risk aversion.

周四，随着贸易协议的希望主宰市场，加元大幅下跌。周四，加元（CAD）遭遇疲软，连续第二天下跌，因为人们希望特朗普政府加快签署贸易协议的步伐，以颠覆其自行征收的贸易关税。细节仍然很少，也没有任何正式协议，但美国和英国之间悬而未决的贸易协议的宣布提振了市场情绪，全面提振了美元。

Canadian Dollar retreats sharply on Thursday as trade deal hopes rule the markets.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) hit a soft patch on Thursday, extending into a second straight day of losses as the US Dollar (USD) catches a broad bid on hopes that the Trump administration will pick up the pace of inking trade deals to subvert its own self-imposed trade tariffs. Details remain thin, and nothing has been formalized, but the announcement of a pending trade deal between the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) has bolstered markets sentiment, boosting the Greenback across the board.

加元兑美元汇率跌破1.39，从5月6日10月以来的最高水平1.378回落，受到美元复苏的压力。美联储决定暂停在4.25-4.50%，再加上对持续通胀和失业风险上升的谨慎指导，支撑了美元。与此同时，加拿大银行的《金融体系评估》提请注意特朗普总统的关税战和杠杆对冲基金在政府债券市场的过度存在所导致的系统性漏洞，这加剧了人们对中国银行进一步放松的预期。与此同时，美英贸易协定的宣布为美元提供了额外的动力，而持续的美墨加协定合规问题使双边关税风险依然存在。

The Canadian dollar slipped past 1.39 per US dollar, easing from its strongest levels since October of 1.378 seen May 6th, pressured by a resurgent greenback. The Federal Reserve’s decision to pause at 4.25–4.50%, coupled with its cautionary guidance on persistent inflation and elevated unemployment risks, underpinned the USD. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada’s Financial System Review drew attention to systemic vulnerabilities stemming from President Trump’s tariff war and the outsized presence of leveraged hedge funds in government bond markets, fueling expectations for further BoC loosening. At the same time, announcements of the US–UK trade agreement lent additional strength to the dollar, while ongoing USMCA compliance concerns kept bilateral tariff risks alive.