英国10年期国债收益率升至4.48%，为两周多来的最高水平，市场正在关注即将出台的预算并消化英格兰银行的最新决定。英国央行以5比4的微弱票数将利率维持在4%，行长安德鲁·贝利（Andrew Bailey）打破了平衡。四名成员支持将利率下调25个基点至3.75%。该行表示，9月份3.8%的通胀率可能是峰值，贝利表示风险已经缓解，接近支持削减。现在的指导意见表示，利率可能会继续逐步下降。市场预计12月将降息，等待工党政府的预算和更多的通胀和就业数据。交易员预计25个基点移动的可能性为60%，利率将稳定在3.5%左右。随着预算的临近，市场预计会出现更多波动。

The UK 10-year gilt yield rose to 4.48%, the highest in over two weeks, as markets looked to the upcoming budget and digested the Bank of England’s latest decision. The BoE kept rates at 4% in a tight 5–4 vote, with Governor Andrew Bailey tipping the balance. Four members backed a 25 bps cut to 3.75%. The bank said September’s 3.8% inflation was likely the peak, and Bailey signaled that risks have eased, edging closer to supporting cuts. Guidance now says rates are likely to continue on a gradual downward path. Markets expect a December cut, pending the Labour government’s budget and more inflation and jobs data. Traders price a 60% chance of a 25 bps move and see rates settling near 3.5%. Markets expect more volatility as the budget approaches.