韩国10年期债券收益率升至2.86%左右，为四个月高点，焦点转向韩国央行下周的政策决定。7月，央行保持利率不变，平衡了家庭债务上升和经济逆风加剧带来的金融稳定风险。第一季度，家庭债务攀升至GDP的91%，债务收入比为186.5%，为全球第二高，而房地产市场仍然不平衡，尽管许多非首都城市面临下跌，但首都地区的价格仍在上涨。债务和住房脆弱性的激增支持进一步宽松政策。然而，提前公布的数据显示，第二季度经济在略有收缩后反弹，突显出可能限制进一步削减的弹性。与此同时，政府今年将支付超过30万亿韩元的债务利息，即使在韩国央行的宽松立场下，这也可能推高债券收益率。

South Korea’s 10-year bond yield rose to around 2.86%, a four-month high, as focus turned to the Bank of Korea’s policy decision next week. In July, the central bank kept rates unchanged, balancing financial stability risks from rising household debt against mounting economic headwinds. Household debt climbed to 91% of GDP in Q1, with a debt-to-income ratio of 186.5%, second highest globally, while the housing market remains uneven, with prices in the capital region rising even as many non-capital cities face declines. The surge in debt and housing vulnerabilities supports further easing. However, advance data showed the economy rebounded in Q2 after a slight contraction, highlighting resilience that may limit additional cuts. Meanwhile, the government is set to pay over 30 trillion won in debt interest this year, which could push bond yields higher even amid the BOK’s accommodative stance.

基准韩国综合股价指数周二下跌0.2%，至3170点左右，触及两周低点，受海外市场疲软和地缘政治担忧的压力。华尔街隔夜收盘涨跌互现，为亚洲交易提供了很少的方向，并让投资者保持谨慎。此外，英特尔因美国政府可能入股的报道而大幅下跌，加剧了人们对科技政策干预的担忧，给当地芯片制造商带来了压力。投资者还等待美国主要零售商的收益，以了解消费者需求的信号，而消费者需求是韩国出口的关键驱动力。在国内，朝鲜领导人金正恩誓言扩大核武库并谴责美韩联合军事演习后，地缘政治紧张局势加剧，今年的演习包括对朝鲜威胁作出更强有力的回应。在企业方面，亏损在金融、技术、化工和工业领域广泛存在，以SK海力士、LG能源解决方案、韩华航空航天、斗山能源和HD现代重工为首。

The benchmark KOSPI fell 0.2% to around 3,170 on Tuesday, hitting a two-week low, pressured by weakness in overseas markets and geopolitical concerns. Wall Street closed mixed overnight, offering little direction for Asian trading and keeping investors cautious. Additionally, Intel’s sharp drop on reports of a possible US government stake fueled worries over policy intervention in tech, pressuring local chipmakers. Investors also awaited earnings from major US retailers for signals on consumer demand, a key driver of Korea’s exports. Domestically, geopolitical tensions intensified after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed to expand the nuclear arsenal and condemned joint US–South Korea military drills, which this year include stronger responses to North Korean threats. On the corporate front, losses were broad-based across finance, technology, chemicals, and industrials, led by SK Hynix, LG Energy Solution, Hanwha Aerospace, Doosan Enerbility, and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries.

周二，韩元兑美元汇率跌至1388韩元左右，与前一交易日的涨幅有所回落，因为白宫与欧盟领导人举行峰会后，美元走强，讨论的重点是解决乌克兰冲突。在朝鲜领导人金正恩誓言扩大该国的核武库并批评正在进行的美韩军事演习后，地缘政治风险加剧，市场情绪受到压力，今年的演习包括对朝鲜威胁的升级反应。另外，韩国央行行长李昌镛强调了美国贸易谈判持续存在的不确定性，并指出董事会将在8月28日的会议上评估外部风险和国内基本面，以制定政策。

The South Korean won slipped to around 1,388 per dollar on Tuesday, retreating from the prior session’s gains as the dollar strengthened following the White House summit with EU leaders, where discussions focused on resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Market sentiment was pressured by heightened geopolitical risk after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed to expand the country’s nuclear arsenal and criticized ongoing US–South Korea military drills, which this year incorporate upgraded responses to North Korean threats. Separately, Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong highlighted persistent uncertainty from US trade negotiations, noting the board will assess both external risks and domestic fundamentals in setting policy at the August 28 meeting.

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The South Korean won strengthened to around 1,384 per dollar on Monday, recouping earlier losses, as markets drew support from renewed diplomatic outreach and an accelerated ramp-up in nuclear output. President Lee Jae Myung’s plan to dispatch special envoys to Beijing, with talks underway for a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi where they are expected to deliver a letter to President Xi Jinping inviting him to the APEC summit in Seoul. At the same time, data from Korea Electric Power Corp indicated nuclear generation expanded 8.7% year-on-year in the first half, almost three times the official growth target, while coal-fired output contracted 16%. The accelerated nuclear ramp-up has lowered dependence on imported fossil fuels and eased input cost pressures, contributing to an improved external balance.