俄罗斯央行储备美元：7295亿美元对比7225亿美元。俄罗斯央行储备美元：7295亿美元对比7225亿美元

Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $729.5B vs $722.5B.Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $729.5B vs $722.5B

国际货币基金组织（IMF）将俄罗斯2025年的国内生产总值（GDP）增长预测从0.9%下调至0.6%，低于政府官方预测的1%。 俄罗斯经济受到西方的严重制裁，预计将从2024年的4.3%大幅放缓，主要是由于央行为对抗通货膨胀而维持的高关键利率。 目前，关键利率为17%，一些商界领袖建议，需要12%至14%的利率来重新点燃经济增长。8月份公布的初步数据显示，俄罗斯经济在2025年第二季度增长了1.1%，与去年同期的4%相比大幅放缓。

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2025 to 0.6%, down from 0.9%, and below the official government forecast of 1%. Russia’s economy, heavily sanctioned by the West, is expected to slow sharply from 4.3% growth in 2024, primarily due to the high key interest rate maintained by the central bank to combat inflation. The key rate currently stands at 17%, with some business leaders suggesting that a rate between 12% and 14% is needed to reignite economic growth. Preliminary data released in August showed that Russia’s economy grew by 1.1% in Q2 2025, a sharp slowdown from the 4% in the same period a year earlier.

2025年8月，俄罗斯的贸易顺差从一年前的86.5亿美元收窄至74.7亿美元。出口同比下降8.9%，至315.3亿美元，为1月以来的最低水平，主要原因是中国需求疲软，当月减少了原油采购。进口也下降了7.3%，至240.6亿美元，反映了国内需求疲软以及西方制裁的影响，这些制裁继续限制了外国商品和技术的获取。

Russia’s trade surplus narrowed to $7.47 billion in August 2025, down from $8.65 billion a year earlier. Exports fell 8.9% year-on-year to $31.53 billion, the lowest level since January, mainly due to weaker demand from China, which cut its crude oil purchases during the month. Imports also dropped by 7.3% to $24.06 billion, reflecting subdued domestic demand and the impact of Western sanctions that continue to limit access to foreign goods and technology.

俄罗斯的年通货膨胀率连续第六个月下降，从上个月的8%降至2025年9月的8%，这是自2024年4月以来的最低水平。这一发展符合俄罗斯央行的预测，即通胀压力不太可能保持在今年上半年的高位，但价格增长仍远高于央行4%的目标。食品价格涨幅放缓（9.5%对8月份的9.8%），而非食品商品（3.9%）和服务（11.1%）的通货膨胀率保持稳定。与此同时，核心通胀率从8%降至7.7%。与上月相比，消费者价格指数在8月份下跌0.4%后上涨了0.3%。

The annual inflation rate in Russia fell for a sixth straight month to 8% in September 2025 from 8% in the previous month, the softest rate since April of 2024. The development was in line with the Bank of Russia's forecast that inflationary pressures were unlikely to remain at the elevated level from the first half of the year, but price growth still held well above the central bank's 4% target. Prices rose at a softer pace for food items (9.5% vs 9.8% in August), while inflation was steady for non-food goods (at 3.9%) and services (at 11.1%). In the meantime, core inflation eased to 7.7% from 8%. From the previous month, consumer prices increased by 0.3%, after a 0.4% fall in August.