4月份,俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率为82,徘徊在近两年来的最高点附近,这得益于美元的大幅下跌、资本管制和央行的高利率。对美国关税和其他经济体报复措施对全球资本流动冲击的担忧引发了美国和风险较高的新兴市场的资金外流,但莫斯科实施的资本管制阻止了国内投资者转向卢布计价资产。此外,由于与西方缺乏经济联系,俄罗斯未来贸易的相对稳定也限制了资本外逃的紧迫性。因此,尽管俄罗斯出口和克里姆林宫预算收入所依赖的能源和关键金属价格大幅下跌,但货币仍升值。与此同时,正如预期的那样,俄罗斯央行在上次会议上将政策利率保持在21%,并对通货紧缩持更乐观的态度。
The Russian ruble was at 82 per USD in April, hovering around its strongest in nearly two years, supported by the sharp decline in the dollar, capital controls, and high interest rates by the central bank. Concerns of shocks to global capital flows stemmed by US tariffs and retaliatory measures by other economies triggered outflows from the US and riskier emerging markets, but capital controls in place by Moscow prevented domestic investors from pivoting out of ruble-denominated assets. Also, the relative stability in future Russian trade due to its lack of economic ties in the West also limited the urgency of a capital flight. Consequently, the currency appreciated despite the sharp decline in prices of energy and key metals that Russia exports and the Kremlin depends on for its budget revenues. In the meantime, the Central Bank of Russia held its policy rate at 21% in its last meeting, as expected, and stuck a more optimistic tone on disinflation.