欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元在早盘交易中涨跌互现。周二凌晨，美元有点波动，涨跌互现，但在这个时候，它仍然是我所追随的迄今为止最强劲的货币。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Mixed in Early Trading.The US dollar is somewhat choppy and mixed in the early hours of Tuesday, but at this point in time it is still by far the strongest currency that I follow.

混合信心数据后澳元漂移。周二，澳大利亚的信心指标喜忧参半。西太平洋银行2月份消费者信心指数上涨0.1%，至92.2点，这意味着大多数受访消费者对经济状况持悲观态度。

Australian Dollar Drifting after Mixed Confidence Data.Australian confidence indicators were mixed on Tuesday. The Westpac consumer sentiment index climbed 0.1% in February to 92.2 points, which means a majority of the surveyed consumers were pessimistic about econmic conditions.

澳大利亚于2月11日通过了一项新立法，为生产可再生氢气或加工关键矿物的公司提供税收优惠，旨在促进绿色产业发展，减少对中国供应链的依赖。从2027年7月开始，符合条件的生产商将获得每个项目长达10年的税收折扣。该立法还为精炼锂和镍等关键矿物引入了10%的生产税收抵免，也可长达十年。这些激励措施在10年内总计价值137亿澳元，是政府“澳大利亚制造的未来”政策的一部分。联邦能源部长Chris Bowen在一份联合声明中表示，税收减免对于“抓住净零转型的巨大经济和工业机会”至关重要。当地媒体称，该法案的通过受到了行业利益相关者的广泛欢迎。

Australia passed on February 11 new legislation to provide tax incentives for companies producing renewable hydrogen or processing critical minerals, aiming to boost green industries and reduce reliance on China’s supply chain. Starting in July 2027, eligible producers will receive tax discounts for up to 10 years per project. The legislation also introduces a 10% production tax credit for refining critical minerals like lithium and nickel, also available for up to a decade. Combined, these incentives are valued at AUD 13.7 billion over 10 years and are part of the government’s Future Made in Australia policy. In a joint statement, federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen described the tax breaks as critical to “seizing the vast economic and industrial opportunities” of the net-zero transition. The bill’s passage has been widely welcomed by industry stakeholders, local media said.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率小幅下跌至4.42%，因投资者评估了最新的国内经济数据。2月份消费者信心略有上升，但由于对家庭财务和生活成本上涨的担忧，消费者信心仍然低迷。与此同时，尽管销售和盈利能力不佳，但1月份的商业情绪有所改善，达到了10月份以来的最高水平。这些数据是在澳大利亚储备银行下周做出利率决定之前公布的，人们普遍预计澳大利亚储备银行将在四年内首次降息。交易员目前预计，在潜在通胀缓解的迹象下，降息25个基点的可能性为95%。在全球方面，唐纳德·特朗普总统对美国钢铁和铝进口征收25%的关税，该关税将于3月4日生效。然而，在与澳大利亚总理通电话后，特朗普同意考虑免除澳大利亚的这些措施。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell slightly to 4.42% as investors assessed the latest domestic economic data. Consumer confidence rose slightly in February but remained subdued amid concerns over household finances and the rising cost of living. Meanwhile, business sentiment improved in January, hitting its highest level since October, despite struggles with sales and profitability. These data came ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision next week, where it is widely expected to deliver its first rate cut in four years. Traders are currently pricing in a 95% chance of a 25bps reduction, amid signs of easing underlying inflation. On the global front, President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on U.S. steel and aluminum imports, which go into effect on March 4. However, following a telephone conversation with Australia’s Prime Minister, Trump agreed to consider exempting Australia from these measures.