英国10年期国债收益率从近七周高点回落至4.641%，反映出投资者等待关键经济数据时美国和欧洲债券收益率的下降。在英国，预计制造业PMI将出现六个月来最小的收缩，服务业将出现近一年来最强劲的扩张。受炎热天气的影响，零售销售也有望反弹。与此同时，分析师表示，由于养老基金等传统买家的需求减少，英国央行可能会放缓或停止销售20年以上到期的债券。在货币政策方面，交易员略微下调了预期，但仍预计2025年将降息两次。在全球范围内，欧盟特使正在为与美国在贸易问题上可能出现的无协议结果制定应急计划。在日本，尽管选举遭遇重大挫折，石破慎太郎首相仍承诺留任。

The UK 10-year gilt yield eased to 4.641%, down from a near seven-week high, mirroring declines in US and European bond yields as investors await key economic data. In the UK, flash PMIs are expected to show the smallest contraction in manufacturing in six months and the strongest services expansion in nearly a year. Retail sales are also forecast to rebound, helped by hot weather. Meanwhile, analysts suggest the BoE may slow or halt sales of bonds with maturities over 20 years due to reduced demand from traditional buyers like pension funds. On monetary policy, traders slightly trimmed their outlook but still anticipate two rate cuts in 2025. Globally, EU envoys are preparing contingency plans for a potential no-deal outcome with the US on trade. In Japan, PM Ishiba pledged to stay in office despite a major electoral setback.

周一，受矿业股走强的支撑，富时100指数徘徊在创纪录的9000点附近。铁矿石价格创下四个月新高，提振了嘉能可（上涨3.5%）、英美资源集团（3%+）和力拓（超过2.5%）的股价。随着铜价上涨，铜生产商Antofagasta上涨了3%，而随着金价上涨，Fresnillo和Endeavour等黄金相关股票也小幅上涨。易捷航空上涨超过1%，得益于强劲的盈利和竞争对手瑞安航空的积极前景。与此同时，在持续的收购猜测中，英国石油公司任命Albert Manifold为新任董事长，自10月1日起生效。人们的注意力也转向了地缘政治的发展，欧盟特使在8月1日关税最后期限之前为与美国总统特朗普的潜在无协议脱欧做准备，因为跨大西洋贸易紧张局势仍然是一个关键的市场问题。

The FTSE 100 hovered near the record 9,000 mark on Monday, supported by strength in mining stocks. Iron ore prices hit a four-month high, boosting shares of Glencore (up 3.5%), Anglo American (3%+), and Rio Tinto (over 2.5%). Copper producer Antofagasta rose 3% alongside higher copper prices, while gold-related stocks like Fresnillo and Endeavour also edged higher as bullion gained. EasyJet added over 1%, lifted by strong earnings and a positive outlook from competitor Ryanair. Meanwhile, BP named Albert Manifold as its new chair, effective October 1, amid ongoing takeover speculation. Attention also turned to geopolitical developments, with EU envoys preparing for a potential no-deal scenario with US President Trump ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline, as transatlantic trade tensions remain a key market concern.

英国交易员很快就会意识到这一点：日本石破慎太郎在选举中失去多数席位（英国《金融时报》）。周末的大新闻是日本首相石破慎太郎在上议院半选举中落败。日元在几乎没有流动性的早期交易中走高：周一开盘水平，指示性外汇价格，2025年6月16日日元本周开盘交易大幅走强。

UK traders will wake to this soon: Japan's Ishiba loses majority in election blow (FT).The big news from the weekend was the defeat for Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba in the upper house half election. The yen was moved higher in VERY early trade when there is barely any liquidity at all: Monday open levels, indicative FX prices, 16 June 2025 JPY has opened trading for the week much stronger.

由于就业担忧和通胀压力，英国消费者信心出现2022年以来最大跌幅。英国消费者信心在第二季度大幅下降，这是自2022年底以来的首次有意义的下降。由于对工作保障的担忧，德勤指数下跌2.6点，至10.4%，为2024年初以来的最低水平。

UK consumer confidence sees sharpest drop since 2022 on job fears, inflation pressures.UK consumer confidence fell sharply in Q2, marking its first meaningful drop since late 2022. Deloitte's index fell 2.6 points to 10.4%, the lowest reading since early 2024, driven by job security fears.