由于汽车制造商降价，日本对美国的汽车出口同比暴跌26.7%。日本6月份贸易顺差为1530亿日元，出口同比下降0.5%，进口同比增长0.2%。最引人注目的细节是对美国的出口同比大幅下降11.4%，为2021年2月以来的最大降幅。

Japan auto exports to US plunge -26.7% yoy as carmakers cut prices.Japan logged a trade surplus of JPY 153B in June, with exports down -0.5% yoy and imports up 0.2% yoy. The most striking detail was a sharp -11.4% yoy drop in exports to the US, the steepest decline since February 2021.

周四，日本10年期政府债券收益率升至1.58%，此前贸易数据低于预期。2025年6月，贸易顺差从一年前的2213亿日元降至1531亿日元，远低于预测的3539亿日元。由于美国关税的不断变化，出口同比下降0.5%，至91626亿日元，这是连续第二个月下降，未达到0.5%的增长预期。出口持续疲软加剧了人们对日本经济可能在第二季度收缩的担忧，这可能会使其陷入技术性衰退。与此同时，进口小幅增长0.2%，至90095亿日元，超出了1.6%的下降预期，这是三个月来的首次增长。投资者现在将注意力转向即将于7月20日举行的上议院选举，因为越来越多的人猜测政府可能会推出新的财政刺激措施，包括增加公共支出甚至削减消费税，以刺激经济增长。

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose toward 1.58% on Thursday, following weaker-than-expected trade figures. The trade surplus shrank to JPY 153.1 billion in June 2025, from JPY 221.3 billion a year earlier and well below the forecasted JPY 353.9 billion. Exports fell 0.5% year-on-year to JPY 9,162.6 billion—marking a second consecutive monthly decline and missing expectations for a 0.5% rise—amid evolving US tariffs. The ongoing weakness in exports has heightened concerns that Japan’s economy may contract in Q2, potentially pushing it into a technical recession. Meanwhile, imports inched up 0.2% to JPY 9,009.5 billion, defying expectations for a 1.6% drop and marking the first increase in three months. Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming Upper House election on July 20, amid growing speculation that the government may unveil new fiscal stimulus measures, including increased public spending or even a cut to the consumption tax, in a bid to spur growth.

周四，日元兑美元汇率跌至148左右，投资者对令人失望的贸易数据做出了反应，这加剧了人们对潜在技术性衰退的担忧。2025年6月，日本贸易顺差从一年前的2213亿日元收窄至1531亿日元，远低于市场预期的3539亿日元顺差。出口同比下降0.5%，至91626亿日元，标志着连续第二个月下降，未达到0.5%的增长预期。这一下降是由美国关税运动的持续压力推动的，这引发了人们对日本经济可能在第二季度再次收缩的担忧，并可能将其推入技术性衰退。相反，进口增长0.2%，至90095亿日元，这是三个月来的首次增长，好于预期的1.6%的下降。与此同时，在7月20日上议院选举之前，投资者正在关注潜在的财政刺激措施，因为人们猜测政府将增加支出，并可能削减消费税以促进经济增长。

The Japanese yen fell to around 148 per dollar on Thursday, as investors reacted to disappointing trade figures that fueled concerns about a potential technical recession. Japan’s trade surplus narrowed to JPY 153.1 billion in June 2025, from JPY 221.3 billion a year earlier and well below market expectations of a JPY 353.9 billion surplus. Exports fell 0.5% yoy to JPY 9,162.6 billion—marking a second straight monthly decline and missing forecasts of a 0.5% gain. The drop was driven by continued pressure from the US tariff campaign, raising fears that Japan’s economy may contract again in Q2 and potentially pushing it into a technical recession. Conversely, imports rose 0.2% to JPY 9,009.5 billion—the first increase in three months and better than expectations of a 1.6% decline. Meanwhile, investors are eyeing potential fiscal stimulus ahead of the July 20 Upper House election, amid speculation over more government spending and a possible consumption tax cut to boost economic growth.

日本大选将如何影响经济政策？。日本自民党执政联盟可能会在周日的选举中失去上议院的多数席位，这可能会加剧对政府增加支出和减税的呼吁。

How could Japan's election affect economic policy?.Japan's Liberal Democratic Party ruling coalition may lose its majority in the upper house in an election on Sunday, which could heighten calls for the government to boost spending and cut tax.