英镑兑美元汇率升至1.363美元以上，为7月初以来的最高点，市场正等待着央行一周的繁忙决策和英国数据。预计英格兰银行周四将把利率维持在4%，同时放缓其1000亿英镑的年度债券解除。周三公布的英国8月份通胀率预计为3.8%，与7月份的18个月高点持平，零售额将在稍后公布。最新就业数据显示，除奖金外，工资增长4.8%，包括奖金在内，工资增长4.7%，失业率稳定在4.7%，工资减少8000人，所有这些都符合预期。这些数据表明，劳动力市场逐渐放缓，英国央行的降息押注基本保持不变，到12月，市场只有三分之一的降息机会。与此同时，人们普遍预计美联储将在周三降息25个基点，交易员预计到2025年底至少还会再降息两次。

The British pound rose past $1.363, the highest since early July, as markets awaited a busy week of central bank decisions and UK data. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates at 4% on Thursday while slowing its £100 billion annual bond unwind. UK inflation for August, due Wednesday, is forecast at 3.8% y/y, matching July’s 18-month high, with retail sales to follow later. Latest jobs data showed wage growth excluding bonuses at 4.8% and 4.7% including bonuses, unemployment steady at 4.7%, and payrolls down 8,000, all in line with expectations. The figures indicate a gradually slowing labor market, leaving BoE rate-cut bets largely unchanged, with markets seeing only a one-in-three chance of a cut by December. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday, with traders pricing in at least two more reductions by the end of 2025.